• The IMF warned that the unprecedented US debt is a danger to the global economy
• Debt-fueled high interest rates in the US have severe negative consequences for developing nations
• Facing global economic repercussions, many Americans are turning to safe haven physical gold and silver to protect their wealth

IMF Warns About US Debt Danger

The International Monetary Fund has warned that the US national debt poses a significant risk to the global economy. Our massive government spending is overheating the economy, reigniting inflation, and raising global funding costs. The ramifications of which will cause instability and damage the economic security of those here and abroad.

The IMF pointed out that some countries are taking measures to reduce debt. The US is not among them. Instead, they said the US is one of four countries that needs to critically address the fundamental imbalance between spending and revenue. The others are China, Italy, and the UK. The US is expected to record a fiscal deficit that is more than triple the level of other advanced economies.

The rate at which the US is acquiring debt is accelerating. Or as the IMF put it, there were “large fiscal slippages” during 2023. Government spending exceeded revenue by 8.8% of GDP. That is more than double amount in 2022. ¹

That rate isn’t going to slow, especially with many elections this year, including a Presidential one. Public spending is likely to increase as leaders try to build support.

²

Here is a glimpse of the US Debt by the numbers:

2023 Government debt is 122% of annual GDP³
2024 US debt breaks $34 trillion on its way to $35 trillion
2029 Government debt projected to rise to 133.9% of annual GDP
2034 National debt projected to hit astonishing $54 trillion
2053 Government debt projected to rise to over 200% of annual GDP⁴
2053 US public debt estimated to be $70 trillion

Servicing and Selling the Debt

The cost to service the debt doubled from 2020 to 2023 to $659 billion a year. The government is spending more to service the debt than it does on housing, transport, and higher education. ⁵

The government is planning on selling another $386 billion of bonds in May. They are likely to continue selling debt at that pace throughout the year. Yet, markets are struggling to absorb all the new debt being issued. The reluctance comes from inflation worries, uncertain monetary policy, and the size of the debt. Risk premium, meaning how risky US debt looks, is growing.

To make the bonds more attractive, investors demand higher returns to hold US Treasuries.
The increased interest makes the debt more expensive. Rising rates in the US lead to matching rises in developing economies. Bond’s vulnerability to inflation and high interest rates is increasing financial instability. The IMF said that “This could lead to volatile financing conditions in other economies.”⁶

Even if the Fed cuts rates this year, US government funding costs may not fall by the same margin. The high cost of servicing the debt leaves less money for public services or dealing with emergencies like financial meltdowns, pandemics, or war.

Impact of Debt on the US

The resulting high interest rates needed to fund the debt seep through our economy. High interest rates make loans more expensive for businesses and individuals. This slows growth and depresses stock prices. In addition, high rates lead to more defaults, putting more stress on an already fragile banking system.

Fed Chair Powell signaled that rates could stay higher-for-longer due to inflation rising again. Cutting rates is becoming unlikely as debt-fueled inflation is making “the last mile” to the Fed’s 2% target harder to achieve.

A lack of rate cuts could spark a vicious debt spiral. The debt death spiral refers to a situation where the country’s increasing debt leads to higher interest rates. This in turn makes it more expensive to borrow money. As borrowing costs rise, the government must allocate more funds to debt servicing, leaving less money for essential services and investments. This cycle makes the debt burden worse with further borrowing and worsening financial instability. Until the cost to service the debt chokes out the government’s ability to provide any services at all.

Effect of US Debt on the World

So goes the US, so goes the world. Our higher interest rates due to debt affect the global economy. High US interest rates attract investors seeking better returns. As investors move their funds into US assets, demand for other currencies decreases. This causes their value to drop. To counteract this depreciation and prevent capital flight, other central banks raise their interest rates. Money becomes harder to access in other countries as a result, adding the same pressures on stocks and bonds.

In addition, many state debts are tied to US interest rates. As US rates rise, the cost of borrowing and debt burden worsens. Risks rise as economic fragilities are exposed. Already unstable economies can be driven into total meltdown by forces beyond their control.

Conclusion

The IMF presented a strong case on how the astronomical US debt endangers the entire global economy. Unfortunately, the debt is only going to grow exponentially larger. And the danger is going to grow with it. A worldwide economic crisis is brewing that could have long reaching, long lasting unforeseen consequences. That’s why many Americans are moving to protect their wealth by acquiring safe haven physical gold and silver that hold their value during economic upheaval. In particular, a Gold IRA can protect the long term value of retirement funds from the effects of runaway debt. Contact American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/imf-warns-surge-in-u-s-china-debt-could-have-profound-impact-on-global-economy-c3758d81
2. https://www.cbo.gov/publication/58946
3. https://www.ceicdata.com/en/indicator/united-states/government-debt–of-nominal-gdp
4. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/imf-sounds-alarm-ballooning-us-national-debt-something-will-have-give
5. https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/17/economy/america-debt-interest-rates/index.html
6. https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/imf-warns-surge-in-u-s-china-debt-could-have-profound-impact-on-global-economy-c3758d81

• The conflict in the Middle East has broad global ramifications – including negative consequences for retirement savings
• The war can cause higher inflation, recession, and stock market volatility
• A Gold IRA can protect retirement funds from the consequences of Middle East war

Market Drops as Middle East War Escalates

The Dow posted its biggest weekly loss since March 2023 in the run up to the Iranian strike on Israel. The DJIA cemented its longest losing streak in 10 months. The market dropped on fears of growing escalation between the two countries. Now investors are anxiously awaiting Israel’s response to Iran’s launch of more than 300 missiles and drones at them. The conflict half a world away holds serious implications for retirement funds for several reasons.¹

Oil

Experts expect highly volatile oil trading soon. They are finding themselves in uncharted territory with a direct conflict between Iran and Israel. The Middle East accounts for roughly a third of global oil production. In addition, the Strait of Hormuz sees almost 20% of global oil supply and a significant amount of all shipping volumes. Iran’s geographic proximity to the channel poses a risk of immobilizing supply with a global impact.

The shifting alliances amongst OPEC producers is also adding to the uncertainty. Those nations are wavering between national interests against Iran and economic interests to keep oil prices stable. The managing director of Velandera Energy Partners said, “If Israel vows to respond back with greater force, or Iran basks in solidarity with the Arab neighbors, then there is a real potential for oil’s march to $100.” Chase Bank said oil could potentially hit $125 per barrel.²

Inflation reduces the purchasing power of retirees’ savings. Rising oil prices can increase inflation because it’s an essential part in the production and transportation of goods and services. When oil prices rise, businesses face higher energy costs. This often leads to increased production costs. These increased costs are commonly passed on to consumers. Higher prices result, contributing to inflation. Additionally, higher energy costs can lead to increased expenses for businesses. Economic downturns or recessions can result, negatively affecting investment returns and retirement savings.

Conditions aren’t exactly the same today as they were in the 1970s, but a bad historical precedent exists. During the 1973 oil crisis, sparked by the Yom Kippur War, the S&P 500 index dropped by nearly 50%. OPEC’s oil embargo led to quadrupled oil prices and an economic recession. Similarly, the 1979 energy crisis, triggered by political unrest in Iran, saw the S&P 500 index fall by over 27%. The drop reflected disruptions in oil supply and heightened economic uncertainty.³

Interest Rates

Rising Middle East tensions could cause the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious approach to cutting interest rates. Wall Street has pushed back expectations for an interest rate cut to September from March. But if high oil prices push up inflation, then those cuts are likely to get delayed further. The Fed has said they are making their decisions as data comes in. If inflation isn’t trending to their 2% goal, they won’t cut rates. There is already talk of no rate cuts this year as inflation has started increasing again.

Higher-for-longer interest rates can harm retirement funds by lowering the value of existing bonds and fixed-income investments, as newer bonds offer higher yields. Additionally, high rates can make borrowing more expensive. Thereby reducing consumer spending and potentially slowing economic growth, which can negatively affect investment returns in retirement portfolios.

Trader and investors must now factor in the higher threat of stagflation in the global economy with the Middle East crisis driving up inflation and slowing growth. They must do this at a time when fiscal policy and monetary measures are already losing their effectiveness in taming inflation.

Gold and Silver

⁴

The chaotic international crisis may present an opportunity to buy gold and silver at lower prices according to Peter Spina of goldseek.com. He believes a major market selloff could bleed over to precious metals. A selloff can cause investors to sell their precious metals holdings to cover their losses. The sudden influx of supply could create a temporary drop in prices.

But that drop wouldn’t last long. Gold prices rallied to yet another record high last Monday. Gold’s recent rapid price increase is predicted to only accelerate with the increased war tensions. Spina continued, “The gold price is reflecting all sorts of problems, risks, and now the fear-war premium will likely be added should there be no quick de-escalation to these very serious events in the Middle East.”⁵

Conclusion

The conflict in the Middle East is having broad global ramifications. Included in them is a potentially serious negative impact on retirement savings due to inflation, recession, and market volatility. Gold’s upward trajectory reflects a universal sprint towards to economic security. Before the war heats up more, now is a good time to learn how physical precious metals can protect the value of your nest egg. Contact American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071 to find out how a Gold IRA can help secure your financial future.

Notes:

1. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-climb-after-iran-attack-on-israel-causes-little-damage
2. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/iran-attacks-israel-live-coverage-of-events-and-markets-reaction
3. https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4270641-the-global-impacts-of-todays-war-in-israel-are-not-the-same-as-1973/#:~:text=The%20S%26P%20500%20index%20plunged,its%20low%20in%20September%201974.
4. https://www.americanhartfordgold.com/gold-price-charts/
5. https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/iran-attacks-israel-live-coverage-of-events-and-markets-reaction

 

• Inflation continued to rise according to the most recent Labor Department Report 
• Inflation is eating away at the value of retirement plans, eroding more tan 10% of value during 2022 and 2023 
• Gold is proving itself a hedge against inflation and continues to break all-time highs 

Inflation Continues to Rise

The Labor Department’s most recent CPI report painted a grim picture. Higher than expected prices showed that inflation is more stubborn than thought. The stock market immediately dipped upon the news as hopes for interest rates cuts were dashed. Retirement savers are facing a precarious new reality as we seem to be entering a ‘no-landing’ state of permanent inflation.

Overall inflation and core inflation, with volatile food and energy costs removed, both remained well above the Fed’s 2% target. Headline CPI rose 3.5% from a year ago. That’s up considerably from February’s 3.2% rate. Core price inflation came in at 3.8%. Service prices were up 5.4% from last year. In effort to get a better picture of the economy, economists started the ‘supercore’ measurement. This new computation takes core services and subtracts housing. That number surged 7.2% at an annualized pace. ¹

²

Economists suspect the previous easing of inflation was due to falling oil prices. But gasoline prices rose again in March as OPEC+ extended supply cuts and the Middle East conflict grew.

Inflation and the Stock Market

Over the past few months, investors had high hopes for imminent rate cuts. The Fed had signaled the possibility of cutting interest rates three times this year. In January, the CME FedWatch Tool indicated a 73% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as March. This optimism fueled a stock market frenzy. With the release of this latest inflation report, that surge was brought to an abrupt halt.³

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 500 points. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 also dropped. Tech stocks, including Microsoft, Amazon and Apple, were lower. The CME FedWatch Tool now show 78% of participants expect the Fed to hold rates steady in June. The markets are now hoping for a rate cut in September. Though there is now a possibility of no interest rate cuts this year – further stagnating the economy.⁴

Interest rates are also taking on a political overtone. Some economists point out that a well-timed cut could give a crucial boost to the economy when it comes voting time. Seema Shah is the chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management. She said, “Today’s crucial CPI print has likely sealed the fate for the June [Fed] meeting with a cut now very unlikely. Even if inflation were to cool next month to a more comfortable reading, there is likely sufficient caution within the Fed now to mean that a July cut may also be a stretch, by which point the US election will begin to intrude with Fed decision making.”⁵

Markets historically drop when interest rates are kept longer for higher. This is because it costs more for companies to borrow money and other investments may look better compared to stocks.

Inflation Impact

Continuing inflation is placing severe pressure on most US households. Prices have increased on everyday necessities. In the past few years, the cumulative consumer price index has increased a whopping 18.49%. ⁶

Lingering inflation is taking a heavy toll on retirement savings. The damage goes beyond falling portfolio value as stocks plummet. Warren Buffets said, “Inflation is a far more devastating tax than anything that has been enacted by our legislature. The inflation tax has a fantastic ability to simply consume capital.”⁷

And the math bears it out. Let’s consider an IRA with $100,000 as an example. Just accounting for 8% inflation in 2022, and 4.1% in 2023, the account would have lost $11,772. More than 10% of your retirement savings would have vanished in two years. That money is going to continue disappearing as inflation remains elevated. In addition, higher-for-longer interest rates are likely to keep driving stock values down and increase the chance of recession.

Conclusion

So-called ‘sticky’ inflation presents a real threat to retirement savings. The economy is finding itself in a ‘no-landing’ situation. Continued growth and a tight labor market are working to prevent a decline in inflation. Meanwhile, the most aggressive interest rate hikes in decades haven’t stopped inflation. Instead, they have brought us to the brink of recession.

One stand out in this mess is gold. It is proving itself as a true hedge against inflation. As purchasing power continues its descent, the price of gold keeps breaking record highs. For those people who want to protect the value of their portfolios from the ravages of inflation, now is the time to investigate what gold can do for you. A Gold IRA is designed to maximize your protection from inflationary forces. Contact American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:

1. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/march-inflartion-report-another-month-hot-price-gains-expected
2. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/march-inflartion-report-another-month-hot-price-gains-expected
3. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/interest-rates-today-mortgage-goldman-sachs/
4. https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/stocks-sink-after-hot-march-inflation-data
5. https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/10/markets/markets-fall-cpi-inflation-report/index.html
6. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/march-inflartion-report-another-month-hot-price-gains-expected
7.https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/756.Warren_Buffett?page=5#:~:text=the%20arithmetic%20makes%20it%20plain,ability%20to%20simply%20consume%20capital.

 

• The Congressional Budget Office warned of a severe national debt crisis
• A debt crisis can result in sky high inflation, a devalued dollar, record taxes, and deep cuts in government services like Social Security
• Americans are flocking to physical precious metals to protect the value of their retirement funds from the debt crisis.

Congressional Budget Office Warns of Debt Crisis

US government borrowing has hit unprecedented levels and threatens to leave “scars on our society and economy” for decades to come. The total US national debt is around $34.5 trillion. Forty years ago, it was “only” around $900 billion. Based on forecasts, the national debt will grow to an astonishing $54 trillion in the next decade. With uncontrolled debt potentially leading to sky high inflation, a worthless dollar, and reduced Social Security, Americans are turning to physical precious metals to protect their retirement funds.¹

The federal debt relative to gross domestic product will likely rise above World War 2 levels by 2029. Currently, the debt to GDP ratio is 99%. That is predicted to shoot up to 123% by 2034. And that’s the optimistic prediction. It could go as high as 134% in 2034 or 185% by 2050. The head of the independent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warned the debt could trigger a damaging market reaction if something wasn’t done.²

³

Bloomberg Economics found that in 88% of a million simulations, the national debt is on an unsustainable path. A recent CBO report highlighted that skyrocketing debt combined with high interest rates means the country might not be able to afford crucial borrowing in the future.⁴

The costs of servicing the debt are anticipated to soar. It is likely to triple from approximately $475 billion in fiscal year 2022 to a remarkable $1.4 trillion by 2032. By 2053, interest payments are forecasted to surge to $5.4 trillion, surpassing the combined expenditure on essential programs like Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other mandatory and discretionary spending. That’s factoring in spending on Medicare and other major health programs are projected to rise more than 40% in the next 30 years.⁵

Some economists try to say there is no crisis. They say that since the dollar is the world’s reserve currency, there will always be someone to who wants to buy our debt. But this may not hold true forever. The CBO continued to say that the uncontrolled debt could “erode confidence in the US dollar as the dominant international reserve currency.” Combined with the rising de-dollarization movement , the US may find itself unable to raise crucial funds in the future.⁶

The Government Accountability Office said that now is the time for Congress to address the issue. They said, ” The sooner actions are taken to change the long-term fiscal path, the less drastic they will need to be.”⁷

Conversely, the current lack of political will may result in the government needing to take extreme measures. Measures that the CBO said, “would slow economic growth, push up interest payments to foreign holders of U.S. debt, and pose significant risks to the fiscal and economic outlook; it could also cause lawmakers to feel more constrained in their policy choices.” In other words, expect deep spending cuts is Social Security and defense along with dramatically higher taxes. ⁸

Bloomberg noted that action may not be taken until we are amid a crisis, saying, “that’s playing with fire.” The vice dean of research at the Wharton School said that crisis is likely to occur in 2030. It could happen as early as 2025 if the next presidential administration launches a new expensive fiscal package.

Wall Street Warnings

The private sector has been weighing on the simmering debt crisis. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan, and Blackrock CEO Larry Fink have all warned about the severity of the problem. Citadel founder and CEO Ken Griffin said, “As we have cautioned over the past year, the surging US public debt is a growing concern that cannot be overlooked. It is irresponsible for the US government to incur a deficit of 6.4 percent when unemployment is hovering around 3.75%. We must stop borrowing at the expense of future generations.”⁹

Wharton Professor Joao Gomes foresees a fiscal crisis soon. The forced government response would cause inflation to spike and the dollar to collapse. “These measures would have a further devastating effect in the economy, leading to a decade long stagnation,” Professor Gomes explained. “Its consequences will be severe and leave lasting—probably irreversible—scars on our economy and society.”¹⁰

Conclusion

The national debt is continuing its inevitable climb to crisis. The government is now warning itself that our country’s current trajectory is unsustainable. But still no action is being taken. Facing inflation spikes, tax increases, cut services, and a devalued dollar, Americans are being left to fend for themselves. That is why so many are flocking to physical precious metals to protect the value of their retirement funds. Call American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn how a Gold IRA can safeguard your financial future from the severe consequences of our runaway national debt.

Notes:

1. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/million-simulations-show-us-debt-is-on-unsustainable-path
2. https://fortune.com/2024/04/01/america-social-economic-scars-us-debt-gomes-price/
3. https://twittercom/dailychartbook/status/1774815483142787160
4. https://www.semafor.com/article/04/02/2024/skyrocketing-us-debt-could-trigger-market-shock-cbo-chief-says
5. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/million-simulations-show-us-debt-is-on-unsustainable-path
6. https://fortune.com/2024/04/01/america-social-economic-scars-us-debt-gomes-price/
7. https://fortune.com/2024/04/01/america-social-economic-scars-us-debt-gomes-price/
8. https://fortune.com/2024/04/01/america-social-economic-scars-us-debt-gomes-price/
9. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/hedge-fund-billionaire-says-us-debt-growing-concern-that-cannot-be-overlooked
10. https://fortune.com/2024/04/01/america-social-economic-scars-us-debt-gomes-price/

• Gold prices have reached three back-to-back all-time record highs within the last few weeks alone
• Major banks such as JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs say we are in a commodities ‘supercycle’
• The Fed is signaling rate cuts even as inflation rises, and growth continues – creating a perfect support for gold demand

Gold Hits Record High Prices

Gold prices skyrocketed to a new all-time historic high of $2,222 after the Federal Reserve signaled a new dovish stance. The surge in gold prices confirmed predictions that we are in a new commodities supercycle. Gold prices are forecasted to keep rising as the stock market creeps closer to a crash. ¹

²

Interest Rates and Gold

Though the Fed is maintaining interest rates at 5.5% for the time being, Fed Chair Powell confirmed that 3 interest rate cuts are likely this year. The cuts could start as early as this summer.

The Fed dot plot shows a decrease to below 3% in the coming years. The Fed dot plot is a visual representation of Federal Reserve officials’ projections for future interest rate changes. It illustrates their individual estimates with dots on a chart. Notably, the cuts are predicted despite their increasing estimates for 2024 GDP growth and inflation.

Historically, gold has a negative correlation to interest rates. When rates drop, gold rallies. This reflects gold’s appeal as an alternative to interest-bearing assets. Some are interpreting this as a shift in their inflation fight. This shift creates a perfect scenario for gold to grow – lingering inflation and lowering interest rates.

Gold Hits New Highs Amidst Supercycle

Gold prices hit a new all-time high for the third time this month on the Fed’s announcement. Gold prices have breached $2,159 an ounce, $2,180 an ounce and the $2,222 an ounce mark – reaching three back-to-back all-time record highs within the last few weeks alone. Never before in history has there been multiple all-time record highs in such a short space of time.³

Since 2021, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Bank of America have been calling this the beginning of a new commodities supercycle. They have gone so far as to call commodities the “preferred asset class over the next decade.” Four years later, the commodities supercycle is only speeding up, especially for gold. The yellow metal is positioning itself as one of the best performing asset classes of 2024. ⁴

Analysts at GSC Commodity Intelligence are calling it – “the beginning of a new historic Supercycle for Gold”. Gold is being driven by powerful tailwinds including rising geopolitical tensions and strong central bank purchases. In addition, Chinese demand is growing as their economy become unstable. A high-stakes presidential election is also sending people looking for hedges against upcoming uncertainty. Gold is finding support at above $2,100 and could hold at $2,150. All these factors have analysts thinking gold will reach $3,000 an ounce faster than anyone expects. ⁵

Rate Cuts, Uninverted Yield Curve & Recession

The inverted yield curve has long been a reliable recession warning. This abnormal pattern of short-term Treasury bonds yielding more than longer-term ones has been projected to end by December 2024. That is according to a Reuters poll of 62 bond strategists. The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts are likely to revert the curve back to its customary upward-sloping direction. Recession usually occurs when the curve “uninverts”.

The last two “uninversions” were in August of 2007, followed by the Great Recession, and in the fall of 2000, followed by the ‘Dot-bomb’ recession in 2001. After 2000, gold went on to outperform the stock market for the next twelve years.6

Politically Motivated Cuts

While the Fed has maintained a data driven decision making process, some analysts are assigning political motivations. A dovish turn would boost the market and make investors, large and small, happier with the current administration. Also, it would delay the onset of the impending recession until after the election. Thus, sparing the administration the damage a recession would cause to election chances.

In addition, a cut in rates will help ease the growing pressure they are facing to deal with the astronomical national debt. Across the board, the debt is being recognized as an existential existential crisis for the country.  By reducing rates, the cost to service the debt will decline, and buy the government more time to kick the can down the road. Ultimately though, the market will fall, recession will begin, and the national debt will have to be dealt with. When that time comes, the demand for safe haven gold is likely to spike.

Conclusion

The gold supercycle is revving up. The precious metal continues to rapidly break all-time high prices. Economic conditions support the upward trajectory. At the same time, the stock market is in the ninth inning of a bull market. Americans have a choice between speculating and getting out before the bubble bursts or buying into a bullish trend likely to continue for years to come. Now is the time to investigate how a Gold IRA can capitalize on the precious metal’s upswing. Contact American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:

1. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-prices-hit-yet-another-all-time-record-high-is-3-000-a-possibility-video-202403221521
2. https://twittercom/FT/status/1765135315470098443
3. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-prices-hit-yet-another-all-time-record-high-is-3-000-a-possibility-video-202403221521
4. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-prices-hit-yet-another-all-time-record-high-is-3-000-a-possibility-video-202403221521
5. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/gold-prices-hit-yet-another-all-time-record-high-is-3-000-a-possibility-video-202403221521
6. https://www.ai-cio.com/news/yield-curve-will-right-itself-finally-but-not-until-year-end-experts-say/

• The Federal Reserve held rates at their 23-year high for the fifth time in March 2024
• Economists say the Fed’s data dependency, instead of strategic vision, is hurting the economy by keeping rates too high for too long
• The delay in rate cuts may present a buying opportunity for gold

Fed Keeps Interest Rates High

The Federal Reserve held rates at their 23-year high for the fifth time in March 2024. Fed Chair Powell signaled that rate cuts are likely later in the year. But he said the central bank wants to see more evidence of inflation moving towards its 2% goal before easing policy. As the ‘higher-for-longer’ rates stalls the economy, some experts are questioning the process behind the Fed’s decisions. They are now shining a light on the danger posed by those decisions. ¹

At the meeting on March 20, 2024, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. The Fed said it “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”²

³

Rate Cuts Delayed, Again

Powell emphasized that the Fed is “strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.” And that they will continue monitoring the economic outlook to determine their future decisions. The central bank wants to be “careful” about slicing rates prematurely. The Fed’s dot plot, which shows individual members’ rate expectations, indicated three rate cuts are projected for 2024. Investors had initially anticipated six or seven cuts. Wall Street is betting that the first of those cuts will come in the summer. ⁴

Questioning the Fed’s Methods

From Wall Street titans to Main Street shop owners, Americans have no choice but to accept the decisions of the unelected Fed. But now the central bank’s policies are being called into question by renowned economist Mohamed A. El-Erian. El-Erian is the Chief Economic Adviser of Allianz and former CEO of Pimco.

He points out the Fed chooses to look backward with data points without looking forward with a strategy. He said, “In today’s economy, an excessive focus on the numbers tips the balance of risks toward keeping interest rates too restrictive for too long, unduly increasing the probability of output loss, higher unemployment and financial instability.” ⁵

El-Erian pointed out that “undue data dependency” led to calling inflation “transitory” back in 2021. And as a result, the Fed was forced to issue unprecedented rate hikes to make up for lost time. Powell’s commitment to depending on shifting data has contributed to uneven signaling, reactive measures, and sudden pivots. Unnecessary market volatility has resulted. It has been compared to driving a car by looking in the rear-view mirror instead of the windshield.

With inflation rising once again, policymaking will most likely become more overreactive. More uncertainty is likely to result. A few months ago, the market surged after pricing in a potential six rate cuts in 2024. Those six have been shrunk down to three, and even they aren’t guaranteed. Predictions for the first rate cut in two years were first pushed back to May and then to June.

Goldman Sachs analysts said, “Our inflation path for the rest of the year is now in a range where small surprises could have large consequences.” The chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management said even reducing the cuts from three to two would upset the market. ⁶

A More Dire Prediction

Bernard Connolly is an economic guru who correctly called the Great Recession and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. He warned the US will plummet into a severe recession unless the Fed acts promptly to loosen monetary policy. Large cuts are required due to a weakening labor market and the depletion of pandemic-era savings. Such a recession would sharply devalue the dollar. The global financial system itself could be put in jeopardy.

Conclusion

The Fed is continuing its ‘higher-for-longer’ policy on interest rates with no apparent strategic vision for the future. Uncertainty is growing along with greater market volatility. No one, perhaps not even Chairman Powell, knows when or how many rate cuts will be occurring. Americans interested in protecting the value of their retirement funds from lingering inflation and increasing market volatility are flocking to precious metals. The delay in rate cuts may present a buying opportunity for gold as the prices recede before continuing their upward trajectory. To learn how a Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can protect your financial future, contact us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/markets-fed-meeting-03-20-24/index.html
2. https://www.npr.org/2024/03/20/1239535703/federal-reserve-interest-interest-rates-inflation-powell-fed
3. https://www.barrons.com/news/us-fed-s-benchmark-interest-rates-d89771e4
4. https://www.npr.org/2024/03/20/1239535703/federal-reserve-interest-interest-rates-inflation-powell-fed
5. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-01/a-federal-reserve-held-hostage-by-data-is-asking-for-trouble?embedded-checkout=true
5. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/20/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html