• Gold prices are reaching record heights with no slow down in sight
• Numerous forces are aligning to push gold prices higher
• Americans are moving into Gold IRAs to gain both tax-advantages and the wealth protection of physical precious metals

Gold Prices Continue to Rise

“There is a perfect storm brewing in the gold market,” says Phillip Streible, the Blue Line Future Chief Market Strategist. And a recent price surge is proving him correct. Gold rose 1.3% to hit a new record of $2,141.60 per ounce, $150 above its February lows. Prices rose on the hopes of a Fed pivot on interest rates, geopolitical risks, and a potential stock market crash.¹

Market watchers were surprised by the scale of gold’s rise. Experts are saying momentum is helping the precious metal to continue its upward trajectory.

²

Saxo Bank said increased demand came from the rising risk of a falling stock market. Ole Hansen, senior strategist at the bank, pointed to weak US manufacturing data as a signal for an impending market correction. There is also growing concern that the ‘Magnificent 7’ tech bubble is about to burst.

Gold’s ascent is boosted by the belief in upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The exact date of when the cuts will happen is unknown. Swap markets show an almost 60% chance of a rate cut in June.

Central banks are also providing critical support to gold prices even as interest rates spiked last year. Typically, gold goes down when interest rates increase because interest paying securities become more attractive than non-interest paying metals. “Speculation over a Fed rates pivot and continued geopolitical tensions keep gold shining,” said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Group.³

Geopolitical risks are also supporting gold’s safe haven demand.

“We expect gold prices to trade higher this year as safe-haven demand continues to be supportive amid geopolitical uncertainty with ongoing wars and the upcoming US election,” said the ING Group.⁴

Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea increase the risks to energy and supply chains. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East threatens to broaden into a wider regional war that could have global economic implications. Volatility is further amped up as a contentious US presidential election goes into full swing, bringing a new level of uncertainty with it.

Bullion was also supported over the Lunar New Year. Chinese consumers are seeking safe haven assets against the turmoil in the country’s stock market and collapsing real estate sector.

The prospect of another regional bank crisis is also fueling interest in gold. New York Community Bank is down 80% since January while other regional banks are down 40%. A collapsing banking system will have two effects on gold. Investors will flock to the precious metal as a safe haven asset to protect the value of their portfolios from the impact of a banking crisis. It may also cause the Fed to cut rates sooner to provide relief for banks being crushed by high interest rates.

Gold – Room to Go Higher

Gold has risen more than 600% since the turn of the millennium.

Analysts think that there is significant underinvestment in the gold market right now. There is already critical support to keep gold above $2100. Streible continued, “I think we could be easily back at $2,500. If you go since 1990, within the first 30 days of the first interest rate cut, gold futures on average have had a rally of about 6%. So if you go 6% from here, that’s going to be about another $150 higher. So I think $2,500 is a realistic target.”⁵

Conclusion

All the contributing factors that elevate gold prices are coming into alignment. Interest rates are set to be lowered, reducing the holding cost of gold and competition from interest bearing assets. A rise in global risk if fostering demand for safe haven assets. A tech bubble ready to burst and a banking crisis about to erupt hold the potential to irreversibly damage retirement funds, increasing the need for the security provided by precious metals. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can combine the benefits of wealth protecting precious metals with the tax advantages of an IRA. Contact us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://www.mining.com/gold-price-sets-new-record-on-fed-pivot-geopolitical-risks/
2.Google
3. https://www.mining.com/gold-price-sets-new-record-on-fed-pivot-geopolitical-risks/
4. https://www.mining.com/gold-price-sets-new-record-on-fed-pivot-geopolitical-risks/
5. https://finance.yahoo.com/video/gold-prices-hit-2-1k-152713687.html

• Billionaire CEOs like Bezos, Zuckerberg, and Dimon are selling off massive amounts of their own stocks
• Analysts think the CEOs may be bracing for a market downturn and getting out before the tech bubble bursts
• Just as insider CEOs diversify, regular Americans are diversifying into physical precious metals in a Gold IRA to protect portfolio value

CEOs are Dumping Billions of Their Own Stock

An overheated stock market continues to climb new heights. As investors feed the frenzy with a fear of missing out, economic insiders are unloading billions of dollars of stocks. Their motivation for divesting from the market could hold serious implications for regular Americans.

Here are just some of the recent major transactions¹:

Jeff Bezos: sold 50 million shares of Amazon worth $8.5 billion in just 9 days. Prior to 2019, he never sold more $3 billion worth in a whole year.

Jamie Dimon: the CEO of JPMorgan Chase sold 822,000 shares in the bank he runs for $150 million last week. This is his first sale of JPMorgan stock since becoming CEO 18 years ago.

Leon Black: co-founder and former CEO of Apollo Global Management sold $172.8 million in stock. It was also a first ever sale of former company’s stock.

Mark Zuckerberg: sold about 1.4 million shares of Meta stock worth around $638 million. This is on top of the selling hundreds of thousands of shares in the past three months, coming to approximately $600 million for a total of $1.2 billion. He hasn’t sold Meta shares for almost two years prior to this.

The Walton Trust: sold $1.5 billion in Walmart stock this month.

Stocks were sold as the S&P 500 index is at an all-time high. This past year, it has risen 28% and the Nasdaq is up nearly 40%. During that time, Meta stock has soared by 186%, JPMorgan is up nearly 30%, and Amazon has surged close to 90%. All three companies are trading close to record highs.²

Many of the sales were made according to trading plans that automatically sell shares at a specific date or stock. The goal being to avoid any hint of insider trading.

³

Reasons for Selling

However, analysts think there are other motivations for the sale. One consultant said sales could be due to the upcoming election. Wealthy stockholders may want to take advantage of tax breaks implemented during the Trump administration before they are potentially removed by a new Congress after the elections.

Alan Johnson, President of Johnson Associates, said, “With our politics and everything else going on geopolitically, maybe it won’t be as good a year from now or two years from now.”⁴

Or, they may want to diversify their holdings after cashing out their shares that had ballooned in value.

Sending a Message

Selling massive chunks of stocks may send a more dire message to the individual investor. Typically, if CEOs are buying shares, it shows a confidence in the future growth potential of their company. Selling, however, implies that the shares are fully valued and it’s time to get out while the getting is good.

There is the possibility that these billionaire’s view from above is giving them a different perspective on the economy and where it is heading.

Dimon has already sounded the alarm on the astronomical level of government debt. He called it the “most predictable crisis” currently facing the economy. He is also concerned about the impact of lingering inflation and growing geopolitical conflicts. According to him, the stocks are riding high on a soft landing that may never come.

And now he is comparing today’s economy to that of the 1970s. That decade began with a positive outlook on growing employment and fiscal stimulus. It quickly transformed into runaway inflation, stagnant growth and record high interest rates. Or as Dimon put it, “markets change their mind pretty quickly…Remember in 1972 you felt great too. And before any crash, you felt great, and then things change.” He isn’t alone in this viewpoint. Last October, Deutsche Bank said they saw a ‘striking number of parallels’ with the 1970s.⁵

Meanwhile, Apollo Global Management, the one whose former CEO just sold his stocks off in, said the current bubble in AI stocks is bigger than the internet era’s. “The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than the top 10 companies were during the tech bubble in the mid-1990s,” Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, wrote.⁶

And Morgan Stanley’s chief economist said a hard-landing recession is guaranteed as the full impact of Fed rate hikes have yet to hit the economy. She cited Dimon’s recent comments. “We will have a hard landing at some point. I guarantee you that. We’re all wondering when does that come,” she said. “The point that Dimon makes is that there are these cumulative impacts that build over time, and we are in the camp that we haven’t seen all of the tightening impacts of monetary policy,” she added.⁷

For evidence of a looming recession, Morgan Stanley pointed to corporate defaults reaching their highest level since the pandemic. Also, bank lending has fallen for three straight quarters. And inflation continues to come in higher than expected. A recession, even a mild one, could cause a 40% drop in value in the stock market, pummeling retirement funds.

Billionaires, CEOs, and financiers share at least one trait with average Americans – they don’t want to lose money. The motivations for these massive selloffs can never be fully known. But if those in the know are shedding stocks and diversifying their holdings, perhaps the rest of us should investigate how to protect our assets from any potential crash. Physical precious metals in a Gold IRA can safeguard the value of retirement funds from the exact dangers that have been warned about. Contact American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:

1. https://www.businessinsider.com/bezos-dimon-zuckerberg-amazon-jpmorgan-meta-stock-sales-billionaires-wealth-2024-2
2. https://www.businessinsider.com/bezos-dimon-zuckerberg-amazon-jpmorgan-meta-stock-sales-billionaires-wealth-2024-2
3. Google
4. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/the-great-cashout-jeff-bezos-leon-black-jamie-dimon-and-the-walton-family-have-now-sold-a-combined-11-billion-in-company-stock-this-month-some-for-the-first-time-ever
5. https://fortune.com/2024/02/27/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-chase-american-economy-crash-1972/
6. https://qz.com/ai-stocks-nvidia-overvalued-dot-com-bubble-1851287271
7. https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-inflation-fed-rate-cuts-hard-landing-2024-2

• Citi analysts predict gold could hit $3,000 an ounce
• The primary driver of the price surge would be rapidly accelerating de-dollarization
• To prevent portfolio losses, Americans are moving dollar-denominated assets like stocks into safe haven assets like physical gold.

Gold Could Hit $3,000

As gold holds steady, with critical support above $2000 an ounce, experts are saying that $3,000 an ounce is possible within a year’s time. While traditional concerns over recession and stagflation are driving safe haven demand, the rapidly accelerating de-dollarization movement may be what pushes gold to record heights.

Aakash Doshi is head of commodities research at Citibank. He said there is a chance for gold to surge 50% and hit $3000 with the next 12 to 18 months. At the very least, he sees gold averaging $2,150 in the second half of 2024. That’s up more than $100 an ounce from current prices. Bank of America is also bullish on gold. They see the potential for it to hit $2,400 an ounce this year.¹

If the country slides into recession, the Fed may cut interest rates. Gold typically has an inverse relationship with interest rates. If they go down, the price of gold goes up as interest-bearing alternatives like bonds become less attractive. However, Citibank thinks the major boost in gold prices will come from central banks buying gold as de-dollarization gains momentum.

“The most likely wildcard path to $3,000/oz gold is a rapid acceleration of an existing but slow-moving trend: de-dollarization across Emerging Markets central banks that in turn leads to a crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar,” Doshi wrote in a recent note.²

BRICS+ and De-dollarization

De-dollarization is accelerating on several fronts. The BRICS Alliance is working to wean other nations off the dollar. Twenty nations have adopted a new Russian payment system to stop using SWIFT, the international interbank system that makes payments between 11,000 organizations in every country on the planet.

BRICS recent expansion is another major catalyst in the fall of the dollar. As of January 1st, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran and Ethiopia joined the BRICS alliance. With the expansion, the bloc now represents over 3.5 billion people or 45% of the world’s population. Their collective GDP exceeds $28.5 trillion or about 28% of the global economy. The BRICS+ is also now responsible for producing about 44% of the world’s crude oil.

Experts say the admission of Saudi Arabia is epic because they are the linchpin to dollar hegemony. Having oil traded exclusively in dollars, i.e., the petrodollar, is key to US dollar dominance. If the Saudis begin accepting other currencies, the US could face a “day of reckoning.” The UAE, the seventh largest producer of oil, is also in talks to start trading their energy with up to 15 countries based in local currencies.³

The BRICS Alliance is also growing more integrated beyond using the new Russian payments system. Every OPEC country is part of BRICS member China’s Belt Road and Rail initiative. Saudi Arabia joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS New Development Bank.

The BRICS common currency is the next stage of de-dollarization. Russia has declared that the BRICS common currency will be in focus this year.

“There will be a moment…where they issue a common settlement currency…tied to a basket of commodities. In particular, I believe it will be gold,” said Andy Schectman, President of Miles Franklin Precious Metals.⁴

Central Banks, De-dollarization, & Gold

⁵

Central bank purchases have already increased to record levels in recent years. They are seeking to diversify their reserves and reduce credit risk. BRICS nations and emerging economies want to defend against US dollar coercion. They need to insulate their economies from the sanctions currently punishing BRICS members Russia and Iran.

The BRICS countries are shedding US Treasuries and replacing them with gold. If central banks doubled their purchases, they would become the dominant source of demand in the marketplace. Already, the world’s central banks have sustained two successive years of more than 1,000 tons of net gold purchases. The sector was only 45 tons away from breaking record purchases made in 2022.

Last year, the People’s Bank of China led the gold market with its purchases. Analysts note that China’s gold holdings only represent about 4% of its total reserves, which means there is plenty of room to grow. They are followed closely by Russia.

Oil & Gold

The positioning of the BRICS Alliance could allow them to reap massive benefits from a spike in oil, including a resulting surge in gold prices. Increased profits from oil and increased value of their swelling gold reserves hastens their ability to drop the dollar completely.

Analysts say oil could go over $100 a barrel on escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, deeper OPEC+ cuts, and supply disruptions in oil producing regions.

Higher oil prices often result into higher prices for gold. Though there isn’t a direct correlation, high oil prices can lead to higher inflation. A rise in inflation creates demand for gold to protect against the erosion of purchasing power.

Conclusion

The accelerating de-dollarization movement is poised to both weaken the dollar and boost gold prices. To prevent portfolio losses, Americans are moving dollar-denominated assets like stocks into safe haven assets like physical gold. With a potential upside of 50% within a year, gold can not only preserve value, but increase it. Contact us today to learn what a Gold IRA can do for you. Call American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071 to get started.

Notes:
1. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-02-20/citi-sees-potential-gold-hit-3000-thats-not-base-case
2. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-02-20/citi-sees-potential-gold-hit-3000-thats-not-base-case
3. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-01-19/brics-plus-expansion-accelerating-petrodollar-collapse-ultimately-leading
4. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-01-19/brics-plus-expansion-accelerating-petrodollar-collapse-ultimately-leading
5. https://medium.com/@nassif.co.uk/gold-reached-an-all-time-high-last-year-and-theres-a-chance-it-could-continue-to-gain-momentum-d0f4265b3f64

 

• The stock market dropped over 500 on news of rising inflation
• Fears of higher-for-longer interest rates fueled the massive sell off
• To hedge against stock market volatility, investigate the benefits of a Gold IRA

Stocks Crash on Inflation News

A volatile stock market plummeted more than 500 points after the release of the most recent inflation data. Coming in higher than expected, the elevated Consumer Price Index (CPI) created fears of higher-for-longer interest rates. The extreme uncertainty haunting the market emphasized the need for safe haven assets to protect portfolio value.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 525 points on the CPI news. It was the largest single-day drop since March 2023. The benchmark erased almost half its gains for 2024. The blue chip index nosedived more than 700 points at its session lows. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq also fell. All 11 S&P sectors ended in the red, with rate-sensitive names falling the most.

The selloff comes after the Dow hit a record high close and the S&P 500 closed above 5,000 for the first time. Investors were riding a crest of enthusiasm based on signals that inflation was under control and interest rate cuts were on the horizon. That optimism crashed along with the market.¹

²

State of Inflation

The latest Consumer Price Index report showed prices rose 3.1% for the 12 months ending in January. CPI rose on a monthly basis as well. Core inflation has been even more stubborn as housing costs have stayed higher than anticipated.³

Both inflation measures were hotter than expected. Economists thought inflation would slow to 2.9%. Shelter prices accounted for much of the rise. It contributed more than two-thirds of the headline increase. On a 12-month basis, shelter rose 6%.⁴

Food prices were also higher. But a drop in fuel costs is what caused headline inflation to be 3.1% while core inflation is up at 3.9%. With the Middle East so volatile right now, fuel could send inflation lurching back up on a moment’s notice. Inflation-adjusted hourly earnings increased .3% for the month. But, when adjusted for the decline in the average workweek, real weekly earnings actually fell .3%.⁵

The Fed vs Wall Street

Stock prices rose on expectations of a rate cut as soon as May. Now traders don’t foresee a first rate cut until June or July.

“The stock market can’t keep rallying if rates are going to be higher-for-longer — especially if the assumption that the Fed is completely done raising rates is incorrect,” wrote Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for Independent Advisor Alliance, in a Tuesday note.⁶

Wall Street had priced in about six rate cuts for 2024. They interpreted Fed signals that rates would start coming down from 22-year highs. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic squashed Wall Street’s optimism by saying he doesn’t see the Fed cutting rates until the summer. The Fed wants to avoid any upticks in inflation. They believe cutting too early could raise that risk.

“We continue to expect the FOMC to leave the Fed funds rate unchanged at the March meeting and to begin the easing cycle in May,” said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs.
While over 91% of market participants agree with Hatzius, the majority, 62%, don’t expect any move at the May meeting, according to the CME’s Fed Watch Tool. Expectations for June are even more iffy, with just 24% expecting a cut.⁷

The Fed is, and has always been, focused on inflation. They explicitly have stated that rates won’t come down until there is clear data that inflation is on a definite trajectory to 2%. With continued growth and a strong labor market, the Fed does not feel the need to worry about high rates crushing growth.

But an overeager Wall Street only seemed to be hearing what they wanted to hear.

“The much-anticipated CPI report is a disappointment for those who expected inflation to edge lower allowing the Fed to begin easing rates sooner rather than later,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “Across the board numbers were hotter than expected making certain that the Fed will need more data before initiating a rate cutting cycle.”⁸

Conclusion

Wall Street may be setting themselves up for a bigger fall. A Bank of America survey found investors are cutting cash holdings and plowing it into stocks. Global stock allocation is at a two-year high. It seems as if investors are experiencing FOMO on the surge of the ‘Magnificent 7’ tech stocks. But they are building on uncertain foundations. Even a slight uptick in inflation sent the market plummeting. Overvalued stocks could fall even further with just a hint of negative news from the Fed.

Therefore, now is the time to look for assets that can protect the value of your portfolio, such as physical precious metals. Even with the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates, analysts point out that gold is staying in a range of approximately $2,000 and $2,100. Worsening economic, political, or financial issues could take gold over $2,100. When placed within a Gold IRA, you can obtain wealth protection and tax advantages. To learn more before stocks dive again, call us today at 800-462-0071.⁹

 

Notes:
1. https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/13/investing/stocks-tuesday-january-cpi/index.html
2.https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2024-02-12%2Fstock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates&psig=AOvVaw16g_tClW31nt2C9iST6phQ&ust=1708032467742000&source=images&cd=vfe&opi=89978449&ved=0CBYQjhxqFwoTCJjl1friq4QDFQAAAAAdAAAAABAE
3. https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/13/investing/stocks-tuesday-january-cpi/index.html
4. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/cpi-inflation-january-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-january-more-than-expected-as-the-annual-rate-moved-to-3point1percent.html
5. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/cpi-inflation-january-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-january-more-than-expected-as-the-annual-rate-moved-to-3point1percent.html
6. https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/did-inflation-deliver-knockout-blow-in-stocks-fight-the-fed-battle
7. https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/dow-plunges-worst-day-2024
8. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/13/cpi-inflation-january-2024-consumer-prices-rose-0point3percent-in-january-more-than-expected-as-the-annual-rate-moved-to-3point1percent.html
9. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-02-13/higher-longer-interest-rates-mean-lower-longer-gold-and-silver-prices-cpm