• Gold prices are consolidating around an impressive $2,400 an ounce
• Gold demand is being fueled by geopolitical conflicts, strong central bank purchasing and safe haven demand from rising inflation and growing debt
• Gold is predicted to break $3,000 an ounce within six to eighteen months.

Gold Prices Consolidate at New Highs

Coming off a streak of record-breaking highs, the price of gold appears to be entering a consolidation phase around an impressive $2,400 an ounce. Gold’s momentum is overcoming traditional negative correlations. As it settles into this new price range, gold is poised to resume its upward trajectory.

Gold’s consolidation phase refers to a period in which the price of gold trades within a relatively narrow range. During this phase, the market is in a state of balance. It remains stable until new developments motivate more buying and selling. Consolidation phases usually occur after periods of rapid price increases. They are characterized by reduced volatility and trading activity. They can serve as a pause or breather in the market before the next significant move in either direction.

Right now, gold is consolidating around $2,400 an ounce – a new record weekly close for the precious metal. Gold’s rally to this price is breaking long held fundamental beliefs. It resisted downward forces like high interest rates and a strong dollar. Gold is benefiting from overall increased demand. That demand is fueled by the geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. Gold is also fulfilling safe haven demand for investors as stocks struggle to maintain their near record highs. Central banks and individuals are rapidly acquiring gold as a hedge against inflation as it creeps upwards again. ¹

Go to Gold

Ryan McIntyre is a managing partner at Sprott Inc. He said during this economic cycle, investors should move away from the S&P 500 and into gold. He is looking past the normal headwinds brought by high interest rates. Instead, McIntyre thinks that the S&P 500 is very expensive right now compared to how much money companies are making (a measure called the Shiller Price to Earnings Ratio). Holding onto these expensive stocks might not be the best idea because it would require companies to make a lot more money in the future to justify these high prices. So, instead of investing in expensive stocks, McIntyre sees gold as a potentially better investment option.²

Gold is positioned to take advantage of any new changes in the economy. A rate hike from the Fed would increase holding costs for gold but it will hurt the value of stocks as well. “A rate hike will be bad for gold, but it will be a lot worse for the S&P 500,” according to McIntyre. ³

The rapidly growing national debt is also powering gold demand. US Treasuries aren’t offering the same wealth protection. Gold is still coming ahead as the easiest and trustworthy of safe haven assets.

Gold & Interest Rates

Gold is even breaking with its normal correlation to interest rates. Recently, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets with a hawkish comment. Inflation was coming in hotter than expected. Powell cast doubt on its readiness to cut interest rates. Gold prices, instead of dropping, were unfazed by the comment.

A softer than expected jobs report renewed expectations on potential interest rate cuts. “We continue to expect two rate cuts this year, in July and November,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a note. Gold climbed on the news. As a matter of fact, the forces holding gold prices down seem to be weakening. “The downside that we’ve seen over the last few weeks might actually be running out of steam, opening (the) door for gold prices to resume their upward trajectory,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities.⁴

The Fed must ultimately lower interest rates at some point in time. And when that happens, gold prices could surge again in what is expected to be a protracted bull market.

Future Prices

Analysts from Citigroup have predicted that gold, “aided by geopolitical heat” and “coinciding with record equity index levels,” could surpass the price of $3,000 per ounce in the following six to 18 months. According to Citigroup, the demand is likely to be coming from managed money players who are catching up with central bank demand. ⁵

Bloomberg’s senior commodity specialist Mike McGlone is also certain that gold would hit the $3,000 price per ounce. He cites the combination of two financial indicators – the lowest CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIS) and the highest US Treasury bill rates since 2007.⁶

Conclusion

Gold prices are consolidating at a new high level. Demand is backed by geopolitical conflict, central bank buying, and rising inflation. Debt fears and potential interest rate cuts are also supporting gold. Analysts see this plateau as a springboard for gold to reach even greater heights. Now is an excellent time to learn how adding gold to your portfolio with a Gold IRA can protect and potentially increase your wealth. Call American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:

1. https://www.americanhartfordgold.com/gold-price-charts/
2. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-05-07/its-no-brainer-switch-sp-500-gold-sprotts-ryan-mcintyre
3. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-05-07/its-no-brainer-switch-sp-500-gold-sprotts-ryan-mcintyre
4. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/06/gold-rises-on-fed-rate-cut-hopes-middle-east-tensions.html
5. https://finbold.com/heres-when-gold-price-could-hit-3000/
6. https://finbold.com/heres-when-gold-price-could-hit-3000/

 

 

• Experts fear China’s gold buying binge is a prelude to an attack on Taiwan
• A Chinese attack on Taiwan is predicted to send the price of gold skyrocketing, hitting up to $5,000 an ounce
• Central banks and individuals are flocking to physical gold to secure their wealth during this time of political chaos

China Gold Buying: Prelude to Taiwan Attack?

Having learned a lesson from Russia, China has been sanction-proofing their economy for two years. Now, China’s leader Xi may be ready to achieve the long-sought goal of annexing Taiwan. A Chinese attack on Taiwan would shake the global economy and send gold prices soaring.

Experts say China has been preparing for a major action. They have been building trade relationships in the ‘Global South’, stocking up on oil and gas, and most notably, buying gold on a colossal scale.

In the last 17 months, Chinese gold reserves, that we know about, soared 17%. They now have 73 million ounces of gold currently worth $170 billion. They have also raised their foreign exchange reserves to their highest level since 2015. This is looking to some analysts as a war chest meant to defend against sanctions brought on in response to an attack on Taiwan.¹

²

Once thought impossible, a Chinese attack on Taiwan is looking more probable. Xi himself ordered his armed forces to be “ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.”³

Xi is thought to be encouraged by a few factors. He may have perceived Western weakness and disarray on Ukraine. China can capitalize on Iran increasing global instability. Thanks to Western sanctions, China has access abundant cheap energy from Russia. They have also secured supply chains and built-up strategic reserves of vital resources.

“Xi seems to have studied the sanctions playbook the West used against Russia over Ukraine and subsequently initiated long-lead protective measures to batten down the hatches of China’s economy to resist similar pressure,” Michael Studeman, former head of the Office of Naval Intelligence. Studeman continued, “”Xi likely knows attempting to assimilate Taiwan would lead to much fiercer global resistance and harsher whole-of-society repercussions that would likely last years. And he intends to ready China to endure them.”⁴

The move on Taiwan is looked at as potentially more than a territorial dispute. For the Chinese, it could be the dawn of a new world order with China at the top. Militarily, China is building up its nuclear arsenal, missile capabilities, and space-based weapons. The military expansion is backed by its massive espionage and cyber campaigns. Overall, China is positioning itself to usurp the role of global superpower.

Economic Attack

China’s attack may not be limited to Taiwan. Economists are interpreting China’s actions as a prelude to a global economic assault.

“China is preparing for something major. That seems increasingly obvious judging from the stockpiling of important resources. Could it be that they are preparing a major one-off devaluation of the CNY?” said Andreas Steno Larsen, CEO of Steno Research.⁵

Devaluing their currency is widely described as a “nuclear option” by economists. It could trigger worldwide consequences. The action would make their goods drastically cheaper, escalating a trade war with the US. The US is already accusing China of flooding markets with cheap goods. By hoarding gold and oil, China can hedge against the negative effects of a large devaluation.

Effect on Gold

Gold may skyrocket if China invades Taiwan. China’s gold demand may continue increasing if they are planning a Taiwan attack. They’d do this to support their economy and defend against sanctions. China holds a massive $3.25 trillion in foreign currency that could quickly be converted into gold. They could effectively corner the gold market at a time and date of their choosing. Doing so would send the price of gold soaring. An attack would send investors around the world rushing to protect their wealth with gold against volatility. This too would force the price of gold skyward. Analysts predict an attack on Taiwan could result in gold hitting $3,000 an ounce and going as high as $5,000 an ounce.⁶

Conclusion

Gold has been consistently breaking price records. The last 18 months have seen the greatest net gold bullion purchases by central banks worldwide since 1950. BRICS nations are leaning into gold to further their de-dollarization agenda. The Middle East conflict is sending people flocking to safe haven assets like gold.

A Chinese attack on Taiwan could send gold prices to unheard of heights. In addition, the stock market is predicted to fall between 20 and 30%⁷ during the initial attack. Coupled with a trade war, the US economy could be stuck in a negative growth loop for years. This moment in time presents an opportunity to protect one’s retirement funds and potentially grow them with gold. A Gold IRA is designed to secure your nest egg from global instability and economic chaos. Contact American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/01/xi-jinping-vast-gold-war-chest-enable-china-take-taiwan/
2. https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gold-reserves
3. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/05/01/xi-jinping-vast-gold-war-chest-enable-china-take-taiwan/
4. https://www.newsweek.com/china-may-preparing-deploy-economic-nuclear-option-1894985
5. https://www.newsweek.com/china-may-preparing-deploy-economic-nuclear-option-1894985
6. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4635246-gold-may-skyrocket-if-china-invades-taiwan
7. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4635246-gold-may-skyrocket-if-china-invades-taiwan