• The Federal Reserve held rates at their 23-year high for the fifth time in March 2024
• Economists say the Fed’s data dependency, instead of strategic vision, is hurting the economy by keeping rates too high for too long
• The delay in rate cuts may present a buying opportunity for gold

Fed Keeps Interest Rates High

The Federal Reserve held rates at their 23-year high for the fifth time in March 2024. Fed Chair Powell signaled that rate cuts are likely later in the year. But he said the central bank wants to see more evidence of inflation moving towards its 2% goal before easing policy. As the ‘higher-for-longer’ rates stalls the economy, some experts are questioning the process behind the Fed’s decisions. They are now shining a light on the danger posed by those decisions. ¹

At the meeting on March 20, 2024, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady in a range of 5.25% to 5.5%. The Fed said it “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”²

³

Rate Cuts Delayed, Again

Powell emphasized that the Fed is “strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.” And that they will continue monitoring the economic outlook to determine their future decisions. The central bank wants to be “careful” about slicing rates prematurely. The Fed’s dot plot, which shows individual members’ rate expectations, indicated three rate cuts are projected for 2024. Investors had initially anticipated six or seven cuts. Wall Street is betting that the first of those cuts will come in the summer. ⁴

Questioning the Fed’s Methods

From Wall Street titans to Main Street shop owners, Americans have no choice but to accept the decisions of the unelected Fed. But now the central bank’s policies are being called into question by renowned economist Mohamed A. El-Erian. El-Erian is the Chief Economic Adviser of Allianz and former CEO of Pimco.

He points out the Fed chooses to look backward with data points without looking forward with a strategy. He said, “In today’s economy, an excessive focus on the numbers tips the balance of risks toward keeping interest rates too restrictive for too long, unduly increasing the probability of output loss, higher unemployment and financial instability.” ⁵

El-Erian pointed out that “undue data dependency” led to calling inflation “transitory” back in 2021. And as a result, the Fed was forced to issue unprecedented rate hikes to make up for lost time. Powell’s commitment to depending on shifting data has contributed to uneven signaling, reactive measures, and sudden pivots. Unnecessary market volatility has resulted. It has been compared to driving a car by looking in the rear-view mirror instead of the windshield.

With inflation rising once again, policymaking will most likely become more overreactive. More uncertainty is likely to result. A few months ago, the market surged after pricing in a potential six rate cuts in 2024. Those six have been shrunk down to three, and even they aren’t guaranteed. Predictions for the first rate cut in two years were first pushed back to May and then to June.

Goldman Sachs analysts said, “Our inflation path for the rest of the year is now in a range where small surprises could have large consequences.” The chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management said even reducing the cuts from three to two would upset the market. ⁶

A More Dire Prediction

Bernard Connolly is an economic guru who correctly called the Great Recession and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. He warned the US will plummet into a severe recession unless the Fed acts promptly to loosen monetary policy. Large cuts are required due to a weakening labor market and the depletion of pandemic-era savings. Such a recession would sharply devalue the dollar. The global financial system itself could be put in jeopardy.

Conclusion

The Fed is continuing its ‘higher-for-longer’ policy on interest rates with no apparent strategic vision for the future. Uncertainty is growing along with greater market volatility. No one, perhaps not even Chairman Powell, knows when or how many rate cuts will be occurring. Americans interested in protecting the value of their retirement funds from lingering inflation and increasing market volatility are flocking to precious metals. The delay in rate cuts may present a buying opportunity for gold as the prices recede before continuing their upward trajectory. To learn how a Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can protect your financial future, contact us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/markets-fed-meeting-03-20-24/index.html
2. https://www.npr.org/2024/03/20/1239535703/federal-reserve-interest-interest-rates-inflation-powell-fed
3. https://www.barrons.com/news/us-fed-s-benchmark-interest-rates-d89771e4
4. https://www.npr.org/2024/03/20/1239535703/federal-reserve-interest-interest-rates-inflation-powell-fed
5. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-01/a-federal-reserve-held-hostage-by-data-is-asking-for-trouble?embedded-checkout=true
5. https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/20/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html

• Biden proposes massive new taxes targeting businesses and high worth individuals
• The new taxes could hurt corporations, IRAs, and the housing market
• Investigate a Gold IRA to protect your assets before these taxes take effect

Prepare for Higher Taxes

On top of facing record inflation, interest rates, and debt, Americans should now brace for higher taxes if the Biden administration has its way. As a former White House economist put it, Biden’s latest budget is a mix of tax hikes, handouts, and living with debt. While this government tries to fund its left-wing agenda, those interested in protecting the value of their savings should consider taking steps now to insulate themselves from new taxes.

New Taxes

Biden’s new budget includes steep tax increases on businesses, high worth individuals, and retirement plans. His proposal amounts to a gross tax hike exceeding $5.1 trillion over 10 years. It creates more complex rules for taxpayers at all income levels. According to the Tax Foundation, the promised higher taxes would decrease economic output and incomes and reduce US competitiveness.¹

²

The Tax Foundation maintains that the plan’s promised deficit reductions are based on several unrealistic assumptions. The decrease takes for granted that the 2017 tax cuts will be left to expire, despite Congress signaling otherwise. It also presumes the child tax credit won’t go beyond 2025 which goes against Biden’s platform. And it factors in robust economic growth that falls far short of what the Congressional Budget Office is predicting.

Businesses and corporations are hard targets in this proposal, facing a 33% increase in taxes. The Tax Foundation has found corporate income tax to be the most harmful tax for economic growth. US businesses are already hampered by one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world. Increasing it will further crush growth in an economy already on the cusp of recession. Studies have shown that lowering the corporate tax rate significantly boosts investment in the US – yielding economic benefits to every level of society.³

Beyond business taxes, the proposal includes raising the top individual income tax rate to 39.6%. It also intends to tax long-term capital gains at ordinary income tax rates and limit retirement account contributions for those with large IRA balances. For some taxpayers, Biden wants households to pay a minimum 25% tax rate on unrealized capital gains. In other words, you’d be paying taxes on profits you haven’t even collected yet.

Beefing Up the IRS

New tax laws don’t matter if they can’t be enforced. Biden plans to preserve the $80 billion funding for the IRS that was in the Inflation Reduction Act. It calls for an additional $104.3 billion in IRS funding on top of that.⁴

Another problem with Biden’s new tax plan is that it is exceptionally complicated, which is saying something when it comes to tax codes. A new higher corporate alternative minimum tax meant to be put into effect has been consistently postponed. The reason for the delay is that it is too complex to enforce, even for the IRS.

The Housing Market

The proposed taxes meant to help a stalled housing market are most likely going to make it worse. Biden has called for tax credits to subsidize home purchases and developers. But boosting demand though subsidies is likely to cause housing prices to go even higher. And market dynamics mean most of the credits will stay in the pockets of developers and financing agencies with no guarantee of more houses being built.

Reactions to the Budget

Kevin Hassett is a former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers. He said. “It’s just astonishing, this budget. What they’re doing is they’re borrowing to gin up GDP, but they’re not really getting much GDP out of it. In fact, they’re wasting a lot of the money.”

He continued, “”And so Biden is borrowing money from the Chinese to give jobs to illegal aliens and he’s doubling down on that in the budget, and it’s absolutely economic nonsense. It’s got to stop.”⁵

Senator Rick Scott said, “Prices keep going up, interest rates keep going up, and taxes keep going up, but President Biden wants to add another $6.4 trillion in debt over the next four years with more reckless, inflation-fueling spending.” And Senator John Cornyn said the massive new taxes on the job creators will cause prices to increase.⁶

Conclusion

The Biden administration is adding high taxes onto its legacy of inflation, debt, and government handouts. Analysts think that if even half of his tax proposals make it through Congress, businesses and individuals will suffer. Before these taxes become law, Americans interested in protecting their retirement savings from heavy new taxes should investigate a Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold. Learn how precious metals can safeguard your future today by calling 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/biden-budget-2025-tax-proposals/
2. https://taxfoundation.org/blog/biden-budget-taxes/
3. https://taxfoundation.org/blog/biden-budget-taxes/
4. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-budget-plan-would-raise-us-taxes-by-4951-trillion-over-decade-treasury-2024-03-11/
5. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/former-white-house-economist-warns-bidens-budget-catalyzes-economic-disaster
6. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/former-white-house-economist-warns-bidens-budget-catalyzes-economic-disaster

• Gold prices are reaching record heights with no slow down in sight
• Numerous forces are aligning to push gold prices higher
• Americans are moving into Gold IRAs to gain both tax-advantages and the wealth protection of physical precious metals

Gold Prices Continue to Rise

“There is a perfect storm brewing in the gold market,” says Phillip Streible, the Blue Line Future Chief Market Strategist. And a recent price surge is proving him correct. Gold rose 1.3% to hit a new record of $2,141.60 per ounce, $150 above its February lows. Prices rose on the hopes of a Fed pivot on interest rates, geopolitical risks, and a potential stock market crash.¹

Market watchers were surprised by the scale of gold’s rise. Experts are saying momentum is helping the precious metal to continue its upward trajectory.

²

Saxo Bank said increased demand came from the rising risk of a falling stock market. Ole Hansen, senior strategist at the bank, pointed to weak US manufacturing data as a signal for an impending market correction. There is also growing concern that the ‘Magnificent 7’ tech bubble is about to burst.

Gold’s ascent is boosted by the belief in upcoming interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The exact date of when the cuts will happen is unknown. Swap markets show an almost 60% chance of a rate cut in June.

Central banks are also providing critical support to gold prices even as interest rates spiked last year. Typically, gold goes down when interest rates increase because interest paying securities become more attractive than non-interest paying metals. “Speculation over a Fed rates pivot and continued geopolitical tensions keep gold shining,” said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING Group.³

Geopolitical risks are also supporting gold’s safe haven demand.

“We expect gold prices to trade higher this year as safe-haven demand continues to be supportive amid geopolitical uncertainty with ongoing wars and the upcoming US election,” said the ING Group.⁴

Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea increase the risks to energy and supply chains. In addition, the conflict in the Middle East threatens to broaden into a wider regional war that could have global economic implications. Volatility is further amped up as a contentious US presidential election goes into full swing, bringing a new level of uncertainty with it.

Bullion was also supported over the Lunar New Year. Chinese consumers are seeking safe haven assets against the turmoil in the country’s stock market and collapsing real estate sector.

The prospect of another regional bank crisis is also fueling interest in gold. New York Community Bank is down 80% since January while other regional banks are down 40%. A collapsing banking system will have two effects on gold. Investors will flock to the precious metal as a safe haven asset to protect the value of their portfolios from the impact of a banking crisis. It may also cause the Fed to cut rates sooner to provide relief for banks being crushed by high interest rates.

Gold – Room to Go Higher

Gold has risen more than 600% since the turn of the millennium.

Analysts think that there is significant underinvestment in the gold market right now. There is already critical support to keep gold above $2100. Streible continued, “I think we could be easily back at $2,500. If you go since 1990, within the first 30 days of the first interest rate cut, gold futures on average have had a rally of about 6%. So if you go 6% from here, that’s going to be about another $150 higher. So I think $2,500 is a realistic target.”⁵

Conclusion

All the contributing factors that elevate gold prices are coming into alignment. Interest rates are set to be lowered, reducing the holding cost of gold and competition from interest bearing assets. A rise in global risk if fostering demand for safe haven assets. A tech bubble ready to burst and a banking crisis about to erupt hold the potential to irreversibly damage retirement funds, increasing the need for the security provided by precious metals. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can combine the benefits of wealth protecting precious metals with the tax advantages of an IRA. Contact us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://www.mining.com/gold-price-sets-new-record-on-fed-pivot-geopolitical-risks/
2.Google
3. https://www.mining.com/gold-price-sets-new-record-on-fed-pivot-geopolitical-risks/
4. https://www.mining.com/gold-price-sets-new-record-on-fed-pivot-geopolitical-risks/
5. https://finance.yahoo.com/video/gold-prices-hit-2-1k-152713687.html

• Billionaire CEOs like Bezos, Zuckerberg, and Dimon are selling off massive amounts of their own stocks
• Analysts think the CEOs may be bracing for a market downturn and getting out before the tech bubble bursts
• Just as insider CEOs diversify, regular Americans are diversifying into physical precious metals in a Gold IRA to protect portfolio value

CEOs are Dumping Billions of Their Own Stock

An overheated stock market continues to climb new heights. As investors feed the frenzy with a fear of missing out, economic insiders are unloading billions of dollars of stocks. Their motivation for divesting from the market could hold serious implications for regular Americans.

Here are just some of the recent major transactions¹:

Jeff Bezos: sold 50 million shares of Amazon worth $8.5 billion in just 9 days. Prior to 2019, he never sold more $3 billion worth in a whole year.

Jamie Dimon: the CEO of JPMorgan Chase sold 822,000 shares in the bank he runs for $150 million last week. This is his first sale of JPMorgan stock since becoming CEO 18 years ago.

Leon Black: co-founder and former CEO of Apollo Global Management sold $172.8 million in stock. It was also a first ever sale of former company’s stock.

Mark Zuckerberg: sold about 1.4 million shares of Meta stock worth around $638 million. This is on top of the selling hundreds of thousands of shares in the past three months, coming to approximately $600 million for a total of $1.2 billion. He hasn’t sold Meta shares for almost two years prior to this.

The Walton Trust: sold $1.5 billion in Walmart stock this month.

Stocks were sold as the S&P 500 index is at an all-time high. This past year, it has risen 28% and the Nasdaq is up nearly 40%. During that time, Meta stock has soared by 186%, JPMorgan is up nearly 30%, and Amazon has surged close to 90%. All three companies are trading close to record highs.²

Many of the sales were made according to trading plans that automatically sell shares at a specific date or stock. The goal being to avoid any hint of insider trading.

³

Reasons for Selling

However, analysts think there are other motivations for the sale. One consultant said sales could be due to the upcoming election. Wealthy stockholders may want to take advantage of tax breaks implemented during the Trump administration before they are potentially removed by a new Congress after the elections.

Alan Johnson, President of Johnson Associates, said, “With our politics and everything else going on geopolitically, maybe it won’t be as good a year from now or two years from now.”⁴

Or, they may want to diversify their holdings after cashing out their shares that had ballooned in value.

Sending a Message

Selling massive chunks of stocks may send a more dire message to the individual investor. Typically, if CEOs are buying shares, it shows a confidence in the future growth potential of their company. Selling, however, implies that the shares are fully valued and it’s time to get out while the getting is good.

There is the possibility that these billionaire’s view from above is giving them a different perspective on the economy and where it is heading.

Dimon has already sounded the alarm on the astronomical level of government debt. He called it the “most predictable crisis” currently facing the economy. He is also concerned about the impact of lingering inflation and growing geopolitical conflicts. According to him, the stocks are riding high on a soft landing that may never come.

And now he is comparing today’s economy to that of the 1970s. That decade began with a positive outlook on growing employment and fiscal stimulus. It quickly transformed into runaway inflation, stagnant growth and record high interest rates. Or as Dimon put it, “markets change their mind pretty quickly…Remember in 1972 you felt great too. And before any crash, you felt great, and then things change.” He isn’t alone in this viewpoint. Last October, Deutsche Bank said they saw a ‘striking number of parallels’ with the 1970s.⁵

Meanwhile, Apollo Global Management, the one whose former CEO just sold his stocks off in, said the current bubble in AI stocks is bigger than the internet era’s. “The top 10 companies in the S&P 500 today are more overvalued than the top 10 companies were during the tech bubble in the mid-1990s,” Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, wrote.⁶

And Morgan Stanley’s chief economist said a hard-landing recession is guaranteed as the full impact of Fed rate hikes have yet to hit the economy. She cited Dimon’s recent comments. “We will have a hard landing at some point. I guarantee you that. We’re all wondering when does that come,” she said. “The point that Dimon makes is that there are these cumulative impacts that build over time, and we are in the camp that we haven’t seen all of the tightening impacts of monetary policy,” she added.⁷

For evidence of a looming recession, Morgan Stanley pointed to corporate defaults reaching their highest level since the pandemic. Also, bank lending has fallen for three straight quarters. And inflation continues to come in higher than expected. A recession, even a mild one, could cause a 40% drop in value in the stock market, pummeling retirement funds.

Billionaires, CEOs, and financiers share at least one trait with average Americans – they don’t want to lose money. The motivations for these massive selloffs can never be fully known. But if those in the know are shedding stocks and diversifying their holdings, perhaps the rest of us should investigate how to protect our assets from any potential crash. Physical precious metals in a Gold IRA can safeguard the value of retirement funds from the exact dangers that have been warned about. Contact American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:

1. https://www.businessinsider.com/bezos-dimon-zuckerberg-amazon-jpmorgan-meta-stock-sales-billionaires-wealth-2024-2
2. https://www.businessinsider.com/bezos-dimon-zuckerberg-amazon-jpmorgan-meta-stock-sales-billionaires-wealth-2024-2
3. Google
4. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/the-great-cashout-jeff-bezos-leon-black-jamie-dimon-and-the-walton-family-have-now-sold-a-combined-11-billion-in-company-stock-this-month-some-for-the-first-time-ever
5. https://fortune.com/2024/02/27/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-chase-american-economy-crash-1972/
6. https://qz.com/ai-stocks-nvidia-overvalued-dot-com-bubble-1851287271
7. https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-inflation-fed-rate-cuts-hard-landing-2024-2

• Citi analysts predict gold could hit $3,000 an ounce
• The primary driver of the price surge would be rapidly accelerating de-dollarization
• To prevent portfolio losses, Americans are moving dollar-denominated assets like stocks into safe haven assets like physical gold.

Gold Could Hit $3,000

As gold holds steady, with critical support above $2000 an ounce, experts are saying that $3,000 an ounce is possible within a year’s time. While traditional concerns over recession and stagflation are driving safe haven demand, the rapidly accelerating de-dollarization movement may be what pushes gold to record heights.

Aakash Doshi is head of commodities research at Citibank. He said there is a chance for gold to surge 50% and hit $3000 with the next 12 to 18 months. At the very least, he sees gold averaging $2,150 in the second half of 2024. That’s up more than $100 an ounce from current prices. Bank of America is also bullish on gold. They see the potential for it to hit $2,400 an ounce this year.¹

If the country slides into recession, the Fed may cut interest rates. Gold typically has an inverse relationship with interest rates. If they go down, the price of gold goes up as interest-bearing alternatives like bonds become less attractive. However, Citibank thinks the major boost in gold prices will come from central banks buying gold as de-dollarization gains momentum.

“The most likely wildcard path to $3,000/oz gold is a rapid acceleration of an existing but slow-moving trend: de-dollarization across Emerging Markets central banks that in turn leads to a crisis of confidence in the U.S. dollar,” Doshi wrote in a recent note.²

BRICS+ and De-dollarization

De-dollarization is accelerating on several fronts. The BRICS Alliance is working to wean other nations off the dollar. Twenty nations have adopted a new Russian payment system to stop using SWIFT, the international interbank system that makes payments between 11,000 organizations in every country on the planet.

BRICS recent expansion is another major catalyst in the fall of the dollar. As of January 1st, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran and Ethiopia joined the BRICS alliance. With the expansion, the bloc now represents over 3.5 billion people or 45% of the world’s population. Their collective GDP exceeds $28.5 trillion or about 28% of the global economy. The BRICS+ is also now responsible for producing about 44% of the world’s crude oil.

Experts say the admission of Saudi Arabia is epic because they are the linchpin to dollar hegemony. Having oil traded exclusively in dollars, i.e., the petrodollar, is key to US dollar dominance. If the Saudis begin accepting other currencies, the US could face a “day of reckoning.” The UAE, the seventh largest producer of oil, is also in talks to start trading their energy with up to 15 countries based in local currencies.³

The BRICS Alliance is also growing more integrated beyond using the new Russian payments system. Every OPEC country is part of BRICS member China’s Belt Road and Rail initiative. Saudi Arabia joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS New Development Bank.

The BRICS common currency is the next stage of de-dollarization. Russia has declared that the BRICS common currency will be in focus this year.

“There will be a moment…where they issue a common settlement currency…tied to a basket of commodities. In particular, I believe it will be gold,” said Andy Schectman, President of Miles Franklin Precious Metals.⁴

Central Banks, De-dollarization, & Gold

⁵

Central bank purchases have already increased to record levels in recent years. They are seeking to diversify their reserves and reduce credit risk. BRICS nations and emerging economies want to defend against US dollar coercion. They need to insulate their economies from the sanctions currently punishing BRICS members Russia and Iran.

The BRICS countries are shedding US Treasuries and replacing them with gold. If central banks doubled their purchases, they would become the dominant source of demand in the marketplace. Already, the world’s central banks have sustained two successive years of more than 1,000 tons of net gold purchases. The sector was only 45 tons away from breaking record purchases made in 2022.

Last year, the People’s Bank of China led the gold market with its purchases. Analysts note that China’s gold holdings only represent about 4% of its total reserves, which means there is plenty of room to grow. They are followed closely by Russia.

Oil & Gold

The positioning of the BRICS Alliance could allow them to reap massive benefits from a spike in oil, including a resulting surge in gold prices. Increased profits from oil and increased value of their swelling gold reserves hastens their ability to drop the dollar completely.

Analysts say oil could go over $100 a barrel on escalating conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, deeper OPEC+ cuts, and supply disruptions in oil producing regions.

Higher oil prices often result into higher prices for gold. Though there isn’t a direct correlation, high oil prices can lead to higher inflation. A rise in inflation creates demand for gold to protect against the erosion of purchasing power.

Conclusion

The accelerating de-dollarization movement is poised to both weaken the dollar and boost gold prices. To prevent portfolio losses, Americans are moving dollar-denominated assets like stocks into safe haven assets like physical gold. With a potential upside of 50% within a year, gold can not only preserve value, but increase it. Contact us today to learn what a Gold IRA can do for you. Call American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071 to get started.

Notes:
1. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-02-20/citi-sees-potential-gold-hit-3000-thats-not-base-case
2. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-02-20/citi-sees-potential-gold-hit-3000-thats-not-base-case
3. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-01-19/brics-plus-expansion-accelerating-petrodollar-collapse-ultimately-leading
4. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-01-19/brics-plus-expansion-accelerating-petrodollar-collapse-ultimately-leading
5. https://medium.com/@nassif.co.uk/gold-reached-an-all-time-high-last-year-and-theres-a-chance-it-could-continue-to-gain-momentum-d0f4265b3f64