• Credit Card debt hit a record-breaking $1 trillion
• High interest rates, increasing delinquencies and 401(k) hardship withdrawals signal a growing crisis
• Experts advise moving into secure long-term assets like physical precious metals

Credit Card Debt Hits Record Level

For the first time ever, American credit card debt has skyrocketed to a record-breaking $1 trillion. This alarming milestone sheds light on the increasing reliance on credit cards during these economically challenging times. Amidst rising living costs, credit cards have become lifelines for covering essential necessities such as food and fuel. The mounting debt has consequences for individuals and the country.

During the second quarter, credit card balances surged by a staggering $45 billion. They contributed to an overall household debt increase of $2.9 trillion since 2019. How consumers are managing debt is changing. A Bankrate.com analysis indicated that nearly 50% of individuals now carry debt from one month to the next. That marks a 39% increase from a year ago. The shift is tied to the surging cost of living. Credit cards are increasingly relied upon as a financial safety net.¹

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This surge in debt is occurring s as interest rates reach a 22-year high. The average credit card is now charging an interest rate of over 20%. This figure marks a new record, surpassing the previous high of 19% set in 1991. Credit Karma has seen credit scores fall by an average of 13 points since the Fed started raising interest rates.³

Matt Schulz is the chief credit analyst for LendingTree. He emphasized the gravity of the situation. He said, “One trillion dollars in credit card debt is staggering. Unfortunately, it’s only going to go up from here. What’s driving it is inflation, higher interest rates and just generally how expensive life is in 2023.”⁴

As the cost of living continues to rise, Bank of America is reporting a surge in hardship withdrawals from their 401(k) accounts. They reflect the growing financial distress faced by individuals. This trend raises concerns about the sustainability of household financial situations. Schulz said, “There’s also only so much hard debt that people can handle before delinquencies really spike.”⁵

The latest New York Fed report highlights that new delinquencies are climbing after a period of historic lows. Credit card delinquencies have reached levels not seen since the first quarter of 2012.

The resumption of student loan payments is expected to add to the stress. A New York Fed research group wrote “rising balances may present challenges for some borrowers, and the resumption of student loan payments this fall may add additional financial strain for many student loan borrowers.”⁶

Impact of Credit Card Debt

While interest rates have reached unprecedented highs, it appears that more debt is languishing unpaid for months on end. As a result, personal debt is growing exponentially. It becomes harder and harder to pay off. Americans are becoming trapped in everyday debt with limited relief in sight. The rise in debt coincides with dwindling savings and the depletion of pandemic-era financial cushions. Cash balances in checking and savings accounts among around 9 million Chase customers have hit their lowest levels since April 2020.⁷

Economists anticipate a cutback in consumer spending as debt mounts. This can hasten the onset of a recession since 70% of the economy depends on consumer spending.

Influential figures like Elon Musk have voiced their concerns. Musk notes, “For a lot of people, they’re just really breaking even every month. In fact, if you look at the rise in credit card debt, they are, in fact, not breaking even every month, like credit card debt is — is looking kind of scary.”⁸

With credit card debt reaching unprecedented levels, surging interest rates, and depleting savings, the financial strain is evident across the board. This surge in debt unfolds amidst an ongoing banking crisis. The potential for massive defaults could further disrupt bank stability. The need for a balanced portfolio is becoming vital in these uncertain times. As individuals seek ways to preserve their wealth, many are turning to gold as a means of safeguarding their financial security. A Gold IRA can protect your funds from the nation’s growing debt crisis. Contact American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/us-household-credit-card-debt/index.html
2. https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/us-household-credit-card-debt/index.html
3. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/credit-card-debt-hits-1-trillion-first-time-ever
4. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/credit-card-debt-hits-1-trillion-first-time-ever
5. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/credit-card-debt-hits-1-trillion-first-time-ever
6. https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/08/economy/us-household-credit-card-debt/index.html
7. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-warns-peoples-credit-150612177.html
8. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk-warns-peoples-credit-150612177.html

• The “Buffet Indicator” is signaling that stocks are overvalued and due for a crash
• The crash could be caused by overvaluation, recession, and shrinking money supply
• Warren Buffet advises seeking safer long-term investments

Buffet Indicator Warning

As the Nasdaq saw remarkable gains exceeding 30%, and the S&P 500 has close to a 20% increase, an ominous warning emerged from the legendary investor Warren Buffett. His favorite market gauge, known as the “Buffett Indicator,” is flashing red signals. It is suggesting that stocks might be overvalued, and a potential crash is looming.¹

The indicator just hit 171%. It reflects the exuberance of investors betting on artificial intelligence, anticipated rate cuts, and a soft-landing scenario. Given Buffett’s endorsement of this gauge as “probably the best single measure” of stock valuations, his concerns have garnered attention. He is not alone in expressing caution about the stock market’s current state. As experts echo this warning, it becomes crucial to take appropriate measures to safeguard your retirement funds.

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The indicator takes the total market capitalization of all actively traded US stocks. It then divides that figure by the official estimate for quarterly gross domestic product (GDP). Investors use it to compare the overall value of the stock market to the size of the national economy.

Buffet said stocks would be fairly valued at a 100% reading. You should aim at buying them at 70% or 80%. He warned it would be playing with fire to purchase them close to the 200% mark.

The gauge today is calculated using the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index for the value of all traded stocks. The index jumped 22% this year. Market capitalization is now at $46.32 trillion.³ That was divided by the GDP estimate of $26.84 trillion from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The result was a startling measure of 171%. The gauge proved accurate last year. It plummeted from over 210% in January 2022, to below 150% by September as stocks fell accordingly. ⁴

Reasons for a Crash

There are several reasons why the market could crash.

Overinflated valuations – as the Buffet Indicator show, stocks are expensive on an overall basis. Besides a period from 2020 to 2021, stocks haven’t been priced so high since the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s.

Recession forecasts – the Fed is saying a recession can be avoided and a ‘soft landing’ achieved. However, a recent Bloomberg survey found that 63% of economists still expect an economic downturn within the next 12 months. The stock market often begins to decline even before the economy does.⁵

Money supply – the M1 money supply includes all physical currency in circulation. The M2 money supply adds in deposits in savings or money market accounts. Since 1870, every single time the M2 money supply has fallen by 2% or more, a major economic downturn followed. In three cases, depressions occurred, including the Great Depression. As of now, the M2 money supply has dropped by more than 4%. If you believe history over economists, recession in on the way.

Warren Buffet and his namesake indicator aren’t alone in their negative forecast. John Hussman is President of Hussman Investment Trust and an asset-bubble expert. He thinks the S&P 500 risks a 64% collapse. This is due to extreme valuations and “unfavorable market internals.”

Hussman said stocks enjoyed an impressive rally in 2023. The S&P 500 has rallied 19% so far this year. That takes its gains since the end of 2008 – the year of the global financial crisis – to more than 400%. The price-earnings ratio of the index, one of the valuation metrics tracked by investors, has climbed to about 26 from last year’s lows near 19.⁶

Hussman attributes the rise to cooling inflation, fading recession fears, and growing interest in AI. He concludes a steep plunge in stocks is necessary to get market conditions back to normal. He summed up his prediction by saying, “Yes, this is a bubble in my view. Yes, I believe it will end in tears.”⁷

“Rich Dad, Poor Dad” author Robert Kiyosaki also warned about a collapsing market. He tweeted, “too many signs point to a severe stock market crash. If your future depends on stocks and bonds, please be careful, possibly ask for professional advice.” He continued, “Afraid depression coming.”⁸

What to Do

When it comes to protecting your financial future, forewarned is forearmed. Many are riding the current stock market wave, convinced good times are here again. But some of the world’s most preeminent investors are warning otherwise. Buffet says forget trying to time the market. He’s putting Berkshire Hathaway’s money in cash and long-term investments. The idea is to focus on the future. And one of the most secure long-term assets is physical gold. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can protect the value of your portfolio from a crashing stock market. Contact us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/16/reasons-stock-market-sink-2nd-half-warren-buffett/
2. https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/16/reasons-stock-market-sink-2nd-half-warren-buffett/
3. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-indicator-ai-tech-stock-market-outlook-forecast-crash-2023-7
4. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-indicator-ai-tech-stock-market-outlook-forecast-crash-2023-7
5. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-indicator-ai-tech-stock-market-outlook-forecast-crash-2023-7
6. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-sp-500-64-percent-john-hussman-bubble-2023-7
7. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-sp-500-64-percent-john-hussman-bubble-2023-7
8. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kiyosaki-rich-poor-dad-stock-market-outlook-crash-economy-depression-2023-7

• The Fed approves 11th rate hike since 2022
• Economy faces rate-driven recession risks
• Gold prices surge amid rate hike uncertainties

Fed Issues Another Interest Rate Increase

The Federal Reserve approved the 11th interest rate hike since March 2022. The benchmark borrowing rate is now at its highest level in twenty years. While investors are hoping it will be the last one for a long time, the Fed is making no such promises. Instead, the economy could soon be facing a rate-driven recession.

Last month, the Fed held interest rates steady in a range between 5% and 5.25%. That was the first pause after 10 increases raised them from near zero. The market has already priced in this latest hike. Wall Street is riding a wave of optimism despite warnings of more hikes from the central bank. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 5% over the past month alone.¹

There is a growing consensus among investors that the Fed has gone far enough and could unnecessarily push the economy into recession. The annual inflation rate declined to 3% in June, down from 9.1% a year ago. Kathy Jones is the Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Charles Schwab. She said, “The Fed should be done already. They’re walking a difficult line here. To me, the decision would be, hey, we’ve done enough for now, and we can wait and see. But apparently the folks at the Fed think they need one more at least.”²

Federal Reserve officials obviously have a different opinion. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, posted its smallest monthly increase in more than two years in June. It rose less than .2% from the prior month. Fed officials have been counting on a slowdown in core inflation because goods and shelter prices are slowing sharply.

But overall hiring and economic activity has been too strong for central bank officials to support this being the last hike. The Fed is going to take a data-driven approach whether to continue raising interest rates. Officials want to see evidence that economic activity is slowing, even if inflation subsides somewhat faster than projected.

Fed Chair Powell said that the central bank is not yet fully confident that inflation is defeated. Even if rates don’t rise again, they will most likely stay elevated for a long while. Powell said, “We intend to keep policy restrictive until we’re confident inflation is coming down sustainably to our 2% target, and we’re prepared to further tighten if that’s appropriate.” Powell pointed out that core inflation is still running above 3%.³

Future Rate Hikes

Powell indicated that the central bank is willing to wait things out as it follows the latest data. “We have to be ready to follow the data, and given how far we’ve come, we can afford to be a little patient, as well as resolute,” he said.⁴

The Fed will determine future rate increases meeting by meeting. Chair Powell said the FOMC gave no guidance on the potential for further rate increases at future meetings.

“We’re going to be going meeting by meeting and as we go into each meeting, we’re going to be asking ourselves the same questions. So, we haven’t made any decisions about any future meetings, including the pace at which we consider hiking, but we’re going to be assessing the need for further tightening that may be appropriate … to return inflation to 2% over time.”⁵

Fed Guided by History

Inflation is at its most severe levels since the 1980s. Back then, the Fed backed off the inflation fight too soon. As a result, the economy suffered through a stagflation of high prices and weak growth.

“The worst outcome for everyone, of course, would be not to deal with inflation now [and] not get it done. Whatever the short-term social costs of getting inflation under control, the longer-term social costs of failing to do so are greater and the historical record is very, very clear on that,” said Powell.⁶

Gold & Rates

In the middle of July, gold hit its highest price since May.

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Traditionally, gold has an inverse correlation with the US dollar. As inflation recedes, investors expect a halt in rate hikes. As result, the dollar becomes less attractive for market participants. When this happens, people turn to assets like gold. Plus, news about a potential new gold-back currency created by the BRICS alliance, has also supported the demand for gold.

Gold growth may stall if there are more hikes. However, this only a near future consideration. It’s expected that towards the end of 2023 and in 2024, as the Fed’s rate cycle comes to an end and the US economy slows down, the dollar will weaken against other major currencies. This could potentially result in a growth of gold prices. Gold increases during times of recession according to historical data. With the future of rate hikes, and in turn, the economy, up in the air, those with retirement funds can investigate a Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold. It can protect your portfolio from the damage caused by interest rate increases. Contact us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:

1. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/25/heres-what-to-expect-from-the-federal-reserve-meeting-wednesday.html
2. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/25/heres-what-to-expect-from-the-federal-reserve-meeting-wednesday.html
3. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/live-updates-fed-decision-july-2023.html
4. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/live-updates-fed-decision-july-2023.html
5. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/live-updates-fed-decision-july-2023.html
6. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/live-updates-fed-decision-july-2023.html
7. https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2023-07-25/Gold-reaches-its-2-month-high-before-the-Fed-Meeting-What-can-we-wait-for-after-that.html

• Almost $1 trillion in corporate debt defaults are predicted by Bank of America
• The bankruptcies are driven by record interest rates and a shrinking economy
• The surge in defaults can bring down stock prices and devalue retirement portfolios

Surging Debt Defaults

The growing threat of corporate debt defaults poses a significant risk to retirement funds. Experts are bracing for a tsunami of defaults as credit conditions tighten and companies struggle to manage heavy debt loads. The impact of rising interest rates and credit downgrades is already being felt. The number of troubled companies facing bankruptcy is swelling. The economic consequences could surpass those of previous financial crises. Fortunately, there are actions that can defend the value of retirement funds.

The credit crunch and impending recession could result in $1 trillion of corporate debt defaults according to Bank of America. They say a 15% corporate default rate is a distinct risk. B of A calculates that even an 8% default rate could translate into $920 billion of losses.¹

US corporate debt defaults in 2023 have already surpassed last year’s totals. Fifty-five American firms have defaulted on their debt so far. That’s a 53% increase from all of 2022. Moody’s Investors Service says global debt defaults could keep surging as financial conditions continue to tighten. The global default rate could reach 13.7%, surpassing the 2008 financial crisis. And Deutsche Bank see defaults hitting 11.3%. That is only slightly lower than the all-time-high seen during the Great Recession.²

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“It’s safe to bet there will be more defaults,” says Mark Hootnick. He is the co-head of capital transformation and debt advisory at Solomon Partners. Until now, “we’ve been in an environment of incredibly lax credit, where, frankly, companies that shouldn’t be tapping the debt markets have been able to do so without limitations.”⁴

At the moment, troubled companies are being affected. Regional financial institution Silicon Valley Bank, retail chain Bed Bath & Beyond and regional sports network owner Diamond Sports are among the largest bankruptcy filings so far this year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. But experts expect even stable companies to run into trouble when it comes time to refinance due to high interest rates.

Causes of Corporate Debt Default

The debt defaults are caused by several factors. Companies are facing uncertain economic conditions and heavy debt loads. Refinancing that debt is becoming more challenging. High interest rates are making new debt very expensive. In addition, banks are tightening credit conditions since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Companies are also facing downgrades to junk credit ratings, resulting in higher borrowing costs.

“Capital is much more expensive now,” said Mohsin Meghji, founding partner of restructuring and advisory firm M3 Partners. “Look at the cost of debt. You could reasonably get debt financing for 4% to 6% at any point on average over the last 15 years. Now that cost of debt has gone up to 9% to 13%.”⁵

Corporations shouldn’t expect debt relief anytime soon. The Federal Reserve indicated at least two more rate hikes this year. They aim to keep raising rates until their 2% inflation target is hit.

NY Fed US Recession Probability Index predicting 68% of recession by April 2024.⁶ Recession risk is fueled by continued rate hikes. The recent banking crisis also increased recession risks. Banks are taking losses on their dropping bond portfolios and steep deposit flight. Bank of America analysts say when the recession arrives doesn’t matter. Even if it doesn’t start until 2024, the default cycle will only be delayed, not canceled.

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Dangers of Default

Rising corporate debt defaults present a significant risk to the global economy. The impact of rising interest rates is yet to be fully felt. While some companies may be able to navigate through the challenges with debt restructuring, not all will survive.

Corporate debt defaults most often lead to an increased desire to sell shares and a consequential drop in stock prices. The desire to sell is fueled by several reasons. Shareholders lose confidence in the stock as they perceive financial distress or mismanagement. And the indication of higher risk has investors demanding higher returns for holding the stock. This can lead to a decrease in the stock’s price to adjust for the increased risk. Additionally, credit rating downgrades and liquidity concerns add more selling pressure. These negative effects extend beyond the defaulting company. Overall market sentiment may also be impacted, causing broader declines in other companies’ stock prices.

Thus, it can be seen, corporate debt defaults can drive down stock prices. Retirement funds that are composed of securities are vulnerable to significant losses. To protect the value of such funds, their owners can diversify their holdings with safe haven assets. Precious metals such as gold can hold their value as bankruptcies pull down the stock market. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold is structured to protect portfolio value in the face of a growing debt crisis. Contact us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more about how to safeguard your future.

Notes:
1. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/recession-credit-crunch-us-economy-debt-default-bank-of-america-2023-5?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets
2. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/corporate-debt-defaults-recession-credit-crunch-financial-crisis-default-rate-2023-7
3. https://www.reuters.com/markets/long-feared-corporate-debt-woes-start-hit-home-2023-07-18/
4. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/24/high-interest-rates-economic-uncertainty-boost-corporate-defaults.html
5. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/24/high-interest-rates-economic-uncertainty-boost-corporate-defaults.html
6. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/recession-credit-crunch-us-economy-debt-default-bank-of-america-2023-5?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets