• The “Buffet Indicator” is signaling that stocks are overvalued and due for a crash
• The crash could be caused by overvaluation, recession, and shrinking money supply
• Warren Buffet advises seeking safer long-term investments

Buffet Indicator Warning

As the Nasdaq saw remarkable gains exceeding 30%, and the S&P 500 has close to a 20% increase, an ominous warning emerged from the legendary investor Warren Buffett. His favorite market gauge, known as the “Buffett Indicator,” is flashing red signals. It is suggesting that stocks might be overvalued, and a potential crash is looming.¹

The indicator just hit 171%. It reflects the exuberance of investors betting on artificial intelligence, anticipated rate cuts, and a soft-landing scenario. Given Buffett’s endorsement of this gauge as “probably the best single measure” of stock valuations, his concerns have garnered attention. He is not alone in expressing caution about the stock market’s current state. As experts echo this warning, it becomes crucial to take appropriate measures to safeguard your retirement funds.

²

The indicator takes the total market capitalization of all actively traded US stocks. It then divides that figure by the official estimate for quarterly gross domestic product (GDP). Investors use it to compare the overall value of the stock market to the size of the national economy.

Buffet said stocks would be fairly valued at a 100% reading. You should aim at buying them at 70% or 80%. He warned it would be playing with fire to purchase them close to the 200% mark.

The gauge today is calculated using the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index for the value of all traded stocks. The index jumped 22% this year. Market capitalization is now at $46.32 trillion.³ That was divided by the GDP estimate of $26.84 trillion from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The result was a startling measure of 171%. The gauge proved accurate last year. It plummeted from over 210% in January 2022, to below 150% by September as stocks fell accordingly. ⁴

Reasons for a Crash

There are several reasons why the market could crash.

Overinflated valuations – as the Buffet Indicator show, stocks are expensive on an overall basis. Besides a period from 2020 to 2021, stocks haven’t been priced so high since the dot-com bubble in the early 2000s.

Recession forecasts – the Fed is saying a recession can be avoided and a ‘soft landing’ achieved. However, a recent Bloomberg survey found that 63% of economists still expect an economic downturn within the next 12 months. The stock market often begins to decline even before the economy does.⁵

Money supply – the M1 money supply includes all physical currency in circulation. The M2 money supply adds in deposits in savings or money market accounts. Since 1870, every single time the M2 money supply has fallen by 2% or more, a major economic downturn followed. In three cases, depressions occurred, including the Great Depression. As of now, the M2 money supply has dropped by more than 4%. If you believe history over economists, recession in on the way.

Warren Buffet and his namesake indicator aren’t alone in their negative forecast. John Hussman is President of Hussman Investment Trust and an asset-bubble expert. He thinks the S&P 500 risks a 64% collapse. This is due to extreme valuations and “unfavorable market internals.”

Hussman said stocks enjoyed an impressive rally in 2023. The S&P 500 has rallied 19% so far this year. That takes its gains since the end of 2008 – the year of the global financial crisis – to more than 400%. The price-earnings ratio of the index, one of the valuation metrics tracked by investors, has climbed to about 26 from last year’s lows near 19.⁶

Hussman attributes the rise to cooling inflation, fading recession fears, and growing interest in AI. He concludes a steep plunge in stocks is necessary to get market conditions back to normal. He summed up his prediction by saying, “Yes, this is a bubble in my view. Yes, I believe it will end in tears.”⁷

“Rich Dad, Poor Dad” author Robert Kiyosaki also warned about a collapsing market. He tweeted, “too many signs point to a severe stock market crash. If your future depends on stocks and bonds, please be careful, possibly ask for professional advice.” He continued, “Afraid depression coming.”⁸

What to Do

When it comes to protecting your financial future, forewarned is forearmed. Many are riding the current stock market wave, convinced good times are here again. But some of the world’s most preeminent investors are warning otherwise. Buffet says forget trying to time the market. He’s putting Berkshire Hathaway’s money in cash and long-term investments. The idea is to focus on the future. And one of the most secure long-term assets is physical gold. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can protect the value of your portfolio from a crashing stock market. Contact us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/16/reasons-stock-market-sink-2nd-half-warren-buffett/
2. https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/07/16/reasons-stock-market-sink-2nd-half-warren-buffett/
3. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-indicator-ai-tech-stock-market-outlook-forecast-crash-2023-7
4. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-indicator-ai-tech-stock-market-outlook-forecast-crash-2023-7
5. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-indicator-ai-tech-stock-market-outlook-forecast-crash-2023-7
6. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-sp-500-64-percent-john-hussman-bubble-2023-7
7. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-sp-500-64-percent-john-hussman-bubble-2023-7
8. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kiyosaki-rich-poor-dad-stock-market-outlook-crash-economy-depression-2023-7

• The Fed approves 11th rate hike since 2022
• Economy faces rate-driven recession risks
• Gold prices surge amid rate hike uncertainties

Fed Issues Another Interest Rate Increase

The Federal Reserve approved the 11th interest rate hike since March 2022. The benchmark borrowing rate is now at its highest level in twenty years. While investors are hoping it will be the last one for a long time, the Fed is making no such promises. Instead, the economy could soon be facing a rate-driven recession.

Last month, the Fed held interest rates steady in a range between 5% and 5.25%. That was the first pause after 10 increases raised them from near zero. The market has already priced in this latest hike. Wall Street is riding a wave of optimism despite warnings of more hikes from the central bank. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped more than 5% over the past month alone.¹

There is a growing consensus among investors that the Fed has gone far enough and could unnecessarily push the economy into recession. The annual inflation rate declined to 3% in June, down from 9.1% a year ago. Kathy Jones is the Chief Fixed Income Strategist at Charles Schwab. She said, “The Fed should be done already. They’re walking a difficult line here. To me, the decision would be, hey, we’ve done enough for now, and we can wait and see. But apparently the folks at the Fed think they need one more at least.”²

Federal Reserve officials obviously have a different opinion. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, posted its smallest monthly increase in more than two years in June. It rose less than .2% from the prior month. Fed officials have been counting on a slowdown in core inflation because goods and shelter prices are slowing sharply.

But overall hiring and economic activity has been too strong for central bank officials to support this being the last hike. The Fed is going to take a data-driven approach whether to continue raising interest rates. Officials want to see evidence that economic activity is slowing, even if inflation subsides somewhat faster than projected.

Fed Chair Powell said that the central bank is not yet fully confident that inflation is defeated. Even if rates don’t rise again, they will most likely stay elevated for a long while. Powell said, “We intend to keep policy restrictive until we’re confident inflation is coming down sustainably to our 2% target, and we’re prepared to further tighten if that’s appropriate.” Powell pointed out that core inflation is still running above 3%.³

Future Rate Hikes

Powell indicated that the central bank is willing to wait things out as it follows the latest data. “We have to be ready to follow the data, and given how far we’ve come, we can afford to be a little patient, as well as resolute,” he said.⁴

The Fed will determine future rate increases meeting by meeting. Chair Powell said the FOMC gave no guidance on the potential for further rate increases at future meetings.

“We’re going to be going meeting by meeting and as we go into each meeting, we’re going to be asking ourselves the same questions. So, we haven’t made any decisions about any future meetings, including the pace at which we consider hiking, but we’re going to be assessing the need for further tightening that may be appropriate … to return inflation to 2% over time.”⁵

Fed Guided by History

Inflation is at its most severe levels since the 1980s. Back then, the Fed backed off the inflation fight too soon. As a result, the economy suffered through a stagflation of high prices and weak growth.

“The worst outcome for everyone, of course, would be not to deal with inflation now [and] not get it done. Whatever the short-term social costs of getting inflation under control, the longer-term social costs of failing to do so are greater and the historical record is very, very clear on that,” said Powell.⁶

Gold & Rates

In the middle of July, gold hit its highest price since May.

⁷

Traditionally, gold has an inverse correlation with the US dollar. As inflation recedes, investors expect a halt in rate hikes. As result, the dollar becomes less attractive for market participants. When this happens, people turn to assets like gold. Plus, news about a potential new gold-back currency created by the BRICS alliance, has also supported the demand for gold.

Gold growth may stall if there are more hikes. However, this only a near future consideration. It’s expected that towards the end of 2023 and in 2024, as the Fed’s rate cycle comes to an end and the US economy slows down, the dollar will weaken against other major currencies. This could potentially result in a growth of gold prices. Gold increases during times of recession according to historical data. With the future of rate hikes, and in turn, the economy, up in the air, those with retirement funds can investigate a Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold. It can protect your portfolio from the damage caused by interest rate increases. Contact us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:

1. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/25/heres-what-to-expect-from-the-federal-reserve-meeting-wednesday.html
2. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/25/heres-what-to-expect-from-the-federal-reserve-meeting-wednesday.html
3. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/live-updates-fed-decision-july-2023.html
4. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/live-updates-fed-decision-july-2023.html
5. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/live-updates-fed-decision-july-2023.html
6. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/26/live-updates-fed-decision-july-2023.html
7. https://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2023-07-25/Gold-reaches-its-2-month-high-before-the-Fed-Meeting-What-can-we-wait-for-after-that.html

• Almost $1 trillion in corporate debt defaults are predicted by Bank of America
• The bankruptcies are driven by record interest rates and a shrinking economy
• The surge in defaults can bring down stock prices and devalue retirement portfolios

Surging Debt Defaults

The growing threat of corporate debt defaults poses a significant risk to retirement funds. Experts are bracing for a tsunami of defaults as credit conditions tighten and companies struggle to manage heavy debt loads. The impact of rising interest rates and credit downgrades is already being felt. The number of troubled companies facing bankruptcy is swelling. The economic consequences could surpass those of previous financial crises. Fortunately, there are actions that can defend the value of retirement funds.

The credit crunch and impending recession could result in $1 trillion of corporate debt defaults according to Bank of America. They say a 15% corporate default rate is a distinct risk. B of A calculates that even an 8% default rate could translate into $920 billion of losses.¹

US corporate debt defaults in 2023 have already surpassed last year’s totals. Fifty-five American firms have defaulted on their debt so far. That’s a 53% increase from all of 2022. Moody’s Investors Service says global debt defaults could keep surging as financial conditions continue to tighten. The global default rate could reach 13.7%, surpassing the 2008 financial crisis. And Deutsche Bank see defaults hitting 11.3%. That is only slightly lower than the all-time-high seen during the Great Recession.²

³

“It’s safe to bet there will be more defaults,” says Mark Hootnick. He is the co-head of capital transformation and debt advisory at Solomon Partners. Until now, “we’ve been in an environment of incredibly lax credit, where, frankly, companies that shouldn’t be tapping the debt markets have been able to do so without limitations.”⁴

At the moment, troubled companies are being affected. Regional financial institution Silicon Valley Bank, retail chain Bed Bath & Beyond and regional sports network owner Diamond Sports are among the largest bankruptcy filings so far this year, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. But experts expect even stable companies to run into trouble when it comes time to refinance due to high interest rates.

Causes of Corporate Debt Default

The debt defaults are caused by several factors. Companies are facing uncertain economic conditions and heavy debt loads. Refinancing that debt is becoming more challenging. High interest rates are making new debt very expensive. In addition, banks are tightening credit conditions since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Companies are also facing downgrades to junk credit ratings, resulting in higher borrowing costs.

“Capital is much more expensive now,” said Mohsin Meghji, founding partner of restructuring and advisory firm M3 Partners. “Look at the cost of debt. You could reasonably get debt financing for 4% to 6% at any point on average over the last 15 years. Now that cost of debt has gone up to 9% to 13%.”⁵

Corporations shouldn’t expect debt relief anytime soon. The Federal Reserve indicated at least two more rate hikes this year. They aim to keep raising rates until their 2% inflation target is hit.

NY Fed US Recession Probability Index predicting 68% of recession by April 2024.⁶ Recession risk is fueled by continued rate hikes. The recent banking crisis also increased recession risks. Banks are taking losses on their dropping bond portfolios and steep deposit flight. Bank of America analysts say when the recession arrives doesn’t matter. Even if it doesn’t start until 2024, the default cycle will only be delayed, not canceled.

³

Dangers of Default

Rising corporate debt defaults present a significant risk to the global economy. The impact of rising interest rates is yet to be fully felt. While some companies may be able to navigate through the challenges with debt restructuring, not all will survive.

Corporate debt defaults most often lead to an increased desire to sell shares and a consequential drop in stock prices. The desire to sell is fueled by several reasons. Shareholders lose confidence in the stock as they perceive financial distress or mismanagement. And the indication of higher risk has investors demanding higher returns for holding the stock. This can lead to a decrease in the stock’s price to adjust for the increased risk. Additionally, credit rating downgrades and liquidity concerns add more selling pressure. These negative effects extend beyond the defaulting company. Overall market sentiment may also be impacted, causing broader declines in other companies’ stock prices.

Thus, it can be seen, corporate debt defaults can drive down stock prices. Retirement funds that are composed of securities are vulnerable to significant losses. To protect the value of such funds, their owners can diversify their holdings with safe haven assets. Precious metals such as gold can hold their value as bankruptcies pull down the stock market. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold is structured to protect portfolio value in the face of a growing debt crisis. Contact us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more about how to safeguard your future.

Notes:
1. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/recession-credit-crunch-us-economy-debt-default-bank-of-america-2023-5?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets
2. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/corporate-debt-defaults-recession-credit-crunch-financial-crisis-default-rate-2023-7
3. https://www.reuters.com/markets/long-feared-corporate-debt-woes-start-hit-home-2023-07-18/
4. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/24/high-interest-rates-economic-uncertainty-boost-corporate-defaults.html
5. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/06/24/high-interest-rates-economic-uncertainty-boost-corporate-defaults.html
6. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/recession-credit-crunch-us-economy-debt-default-bank-of-america-2023-5?utm_medium=ingest&utm_source=markets

• A former CIA advisor predicted that US Dollar hegemony will end on August 22nd
• On that date, the BRICS alliance will announce a rival gold-backed currency
• As the new currency is adopted, analysts predict the value of the dollar will plummet and gold will surge

End Date of US Dollar Supremacy Predicted

Before summer is over, US dollar supremacy will disintegrate. That is, according to James Rickards. He is an investment banker and former CIA and Defense Department advisor.
Rickards predicts that the status of the US dollar as the world’s reserve currency and medium for exchange will formally collapse on August 22nd. On that date, the BRICS alliance will announce the launch of their new currency, signaling the end of the American empire.

Rickards isn’t alone in his assessment. Many analysts have been speculating about a new global currency to challenge the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. In late March, Former Goldman Sachs chief economist Jim O’Neill said that the US dollar’s dominance is destabilizing global monetary policies. He added that a BRICS currency, challenging the U.S. dollar’s dominance, would bring stability to the global economy.

Reasons for Collapse

Rickards bases this prediction on several factors. One is the weaponization of the dollar against Russia amid the conflict in Ukraine. Other countries saw what happens if they run afoul of US policy. They want to take preemptive measures to avoid the impact of sanctions. By abandoning the dollar, the potency of sanctions is diluted.

A second factor is the United States’ $31 trillion national debt. Economists foresee a time where interest on the astronomical debt consumes the entire budget. The US would enter a ‘doom loop’ of endless borrowing at higher and higher interest rates. With no money to spend, the economy will collapse, and the dollar will become worthless.

And a third, most notable factor, is the BRICS group plan to enter the next phase of dedollarization – the launch of a rival currency.

“On August 22, about two-and-a-half months from today, the most significant development in international finance since 1971 will be unveiled,” Rickards wrote. He cites that date because it is when the BRICS Leaders Summit will unveil plans for substituting the dollar in global trade. Of note, August 22, 1971, was the day the US dropped the gold standard.¹

Rickards believes the rollout of a major new currency could weaken the role of the dollar. The US dollar would be displaced as the dominant trade and reserve currency. This change could occur within just a few years. The currency shift would affect world trade, direct foreign investment and investor portfolios in “dramatic and unforeseen ways.” Rickards warned the currency could set off an “unprecedented geopolitical shockwave.”

Who Are the BRICS?

At its core, the BRICS alliance consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Eight other countries have applied for membership. Twelve more have expressed interest in joining the bloc. Of note, Saudi Arabia is one of those countries. Saudi Arabia helped make the US dollar the supreme currency through the petrodollar system. Requiring oil to be traded exclusively in dollars cemented US dominance. With Russia and Saudi Arabia as BRICS members, two of the three largest energy producers with be aligned (the US is the other member of the energy Big Three). The new currency could seize the preeminent role in the energy trade and the benefits that go along with it.

The BRICS countries make up 30 percent of the world’s surface. They produce 50 percent of the globe’s wheat and rice. And they control 15 percent of the planet’s gold reserves. It accounts for 40 percent of the world population. Economically, the BRICS control almost a third of the world’s GDP.

In other words, the BRICS are a substantial and credible threat to Western hegemony. Their new currency has the resources and infrastructure to succeed. And as it is embraced by the globe, it will be able to eventually overthrow the dollar’s preeminence.

Rickards explains that the new currency must offer a safe store of value to be successful. For people to adopt it, the currency should rival the security found in the US bond market. To achieve this credibility, the BRICS are proposing to tie their currency to gold.

He sees “this entire turn of events—introduction of a new gold-backed currency, rapid adoption as a payment currency, and gradual use as a reserve asset currency—will begin on August 22, 2023, after years of development.” The dollar will be effectively removed from a large portion of global trade. Its value will decrease. The effects of which could result in collapsing stock prices, hyperinflation, and a shrinking economy. ²

Gold

The BRICS currency plan could spark a new bull market for gold. The Russian government confirmed the new currency will be backed by gold.

Gold has been playing an outsize role in the dedollarization movement since 2022. Central banks worldwide have been buying gold at a historic pace to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar, as seen below:

³

Analysts see a gold-backed currency as the next natural step in the new currency’s evolution. Many see China’s record gold purchases as an attempt to bring credibility to the yuan.

The global fiat money system could be in for a major disruptive shock. A gold-backed currency may lead to a sharp devaluation of many fiat currencies. As a result, it could catapult up goods prices on those fiat currencies.

The launch of a gold-back BRICS currency could fundamentally shift the entire global economic order. Uncertainty will increase as the dollar loses its dominant role. And assets denominated in dollars, like stocks and bonds, face a major devaluation. Retirement funds that aren’t diversified away from such assets are sitting on huge potential losses. For those who want to secure the value of their portfolios, now is the time to investigate gold. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can protect the value of your funds and reap the rewards of a rising gold market. Learn more before August 22nd arrives. Call us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://mronline.org/2023/06/09/ex-cia-advisor-predicts-date-when-u-s-dollar-hegemony-will-collapse/
2. https://mronline.org/2023/06/09/ex-cia-advisor-predicts-date-when-u-s-dollar-hegemony-will-collapse/
3. https://sophisticatedinvestor.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/COMM-central-bank-demand-04062023.png

• Investment guru Jeremy Grantham warns there is a 70% chance of a stock market crash after the ‘superbubble’ bursts
• Stocks will drop to their true value after too much money in the system overinflated prices across sectors
• Precious metals can safeguard portfolio value and position you for post-crash buying opportunities

Superbubble Warning

Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham warns that the current stock market is on the verge of a major crash. According to Grantham, there is a 70% chance of a crash occurring within the next few years. He believes the market is experiencing a “superbubble” on the brink of implosion.¹

But what exactly is a superbubble? A market bubble occurs when prices are too high based on historical metrics. A superbubble takes this concept to an extreme level. It refers to a situation where excessive speculation sends asset prices to multiple times their true value.

Superbubbles have led to catastrophic market crashes in the past. These include the stock market crash of 1929, the 1970s economic downturn, and the dot-com bubble of 2000. The events resulted in drastic drops in stock prices, ranging from 50% to a staggering 90%.²

Reasons for Warning

A combination of factors is fueling this current superbubble. The primary cause was too much money being pumped into the financial system. This abundance of dollars flooded into various asset classes, commodities, bonds, and goods and services. Easy access to fiat currency over the past 15 years, especially since the 2008 financial crisis, created this liquidity. The response to the 2020 pandemic further accelerated this trend. Reckless government spending and central bank printing becoming the norm. As seen in the chart below:

³

Grantham had previously predicted the dot-com crash and the housing bubble implosion. He diagnosed a “superbubble” spanning stocks, housing, and commodities in January 2022. He declared last September that it was likely in its final stages, and a historic crash seemed imminent. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended the year deeply in the red — but have rallied 16% and 32% respectively this year. The recent AI-driven surge in the stock market is providing a boost. But Grantham argues that it won’t prevent the superbubble from bursting. It is only delaying the inevitable. He suggests that the S&P 500 could experience a brutal 44% drop from its current level.⁴

Grantham points out that there are striking similarities between the current situation and previous crashes. He thinks conditions resemble the ones in 1929 and 2000. He sees a dangerous mix of overvalued stocks, bonds, and housing, combining with a commodity shock and a hawkish Federal Reserve.

The collapse of a superbubble occurs in several stages. First, there is a setback, followed by a slight rally. Finally, the market reaches its low point as fundamentals break down. The S&P 500 exited the longest bear market since 1948 at the beginning of June. Some analysts, such as those from HSBC and UBS, are already predicting a painful second half of 2023. They see an economic downturn deflating the AI boom and exposing the vulnerabilities of the superbubble. UBS analysts noted equity prices can fall as they confront “slowing growth and stickier inflation.”⁵

Even though the stock market has experienced a rally in recent months, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the bear market is over. History has shown that bear markets can have temporary rallies before experiencing further downside.

How to Prepare

Considering these warnings, it’s crucial to be cautious and prepared for a potential market crash. Grantham himself has bet on bargain assets and positioned against expensive growth stocks. Some analysts see the upcoming downturn as a generational opportunity to make money. But it is vital to preserve your wealth to take advantage of buying opportunities.

In times of market uncertainty, assets like gold have often been considered safe havens. Looking back at previous crashes, gold prices experienced notable increases. That’s because investors sought safe-haven assets. For example, during the crash of 1929, gold prices rose by about 27.5% within a year. Similarly, during the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, gold prices increased by approximately 11%.

Based on his track record, Jeremy Grantham’s warnings should be heeded. Ultimately, the fate of the current superbubble rests on economic conditions, investor sentiment, and market dynamics. As the saying goes, “history doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” By learning from past market crashes, you can navigate the uncertain waters and make informed decisions to safeguard your wealth. Now is the time to carefully evaluate your portfolio. Is it diversified and protected against risk and loss? To learn more how a Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can secure against a bursting bubble, talk to us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/the-stock-market-has-70-chance-of-crashing-in-a-few-years-according-to-legendary-investor-jeremy-grantham/articleshow/101492341.cms
2. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-59462/explained-the-american-economy-is-now-a-super-bubble/#:~:text=A%20superbubble%20is%20when%20asset,due%20to%20extreme%20speculative%20conditions.
3. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
4. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeremy-grantham-gmo-superbubble-ai-stocks-housing-market-bubble-crash-2023-7
5. https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-stock-market-faces-more-challenges-second-half-2023-ubs-warns