• Find peace of mind this holiday season by adding physical gold and silver to your portfolio.
• Gold demand is increasing as numerous factors are increasing economic uncertainty.
• Contact American Hartford Gold today to learn how physical precious metals, especially in a Gold IRA, can safeguard your financial future.

Peace of Mind This Season

As we enter the holiday season, many of us are focused on expressing thanks for the good things in our lives and wishing for peace and happiness in the year ahead. This season reminds us of the value of connection, family, and traditions, even as we continue to face uncertainty in the world around us. As the year draws to a close, it’s an ideal moment to consider ways to safeguard our future, especially our financial security.

One such option that offers peace of mind in uncertain times is adding physical gold and silver to your portfolio. These precious metals have long been seen as a reliable hedge against economic instability, inflation, and other financial risks.

Gold: Symbolic and Practical

Gold is integral to many holiday traditions, especially as a gift. Jewelry makes up about 50% of global gold sales. Gold jewelry is cherished not only for its beauty but also for its enduring value. Yet there is far more to gold than just jewelry; it can be the foundation for a secure financial future.

Gold can play a vital role in building a balanced and diversified retirement portfolio. It offers a level of stability that other assets may not. By diversifying with gold, you can reduce risk and protect your wealth from the unpredictable swings of the stock market.

The importance of gold is no secret. Gold prices have surged more than 70% since 2020. Experts predict it could surpass $3,000 per ounce in the coming year. The past few months, gold has been on a record-breaking streak, recently crossing the $2,700 an ounce mark.¹

Why Gold

And while we hope for a joyous season, it is still plagued by uncertainty. Here are some of the concerns that have institutions and individuals turning to gold for security.

Inflation: After a brief respite, inflation is ticking back up. Cumulative inflation has reached 22% since 2020. Different sectors have experienced varying levels of inflation, with transportation seeing the highest at 34.71%, followed by food and beverages (22.68%) and housing costs (22.64%). ³

With inflationary pressures continuing due to factors like government spending, global conflicts, and supply shortages, gold remains a trusted hedge against inflation. Since it holds intrinsic value, gold typically appreciates when inflation erodes the purchasing power of the dollar.

National Debt: The U.S. national debt has now surpassed $36 trillion, contributing to fears of economic instability. As JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has stated, public debt is “the most predictable crisis” facing the American economy. In this environment, gold is considered a safe-haven asset that can protect your wealth against the devaluation of the dollar caused by rising debt. ⁴

Stock Market Volatility: Many analysts believe stocks are overvalued and that a market correction is imminent. When stocks fall, retirement accounts such as 401(k)s and IRAs are often hit hard. Unlike stocks, gold maintains its value and tends to move in the opposite direction of equities, making it a valuable asset for diversifying your portfolio.

Recession Fears: The possibility of a recession looms large, driven by aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the economic slowdown that follows. A recession can lead to increased unemployment, stagnating wages, and declining business activity. During these times, gold often performs well as investors seek stability amidst uncertainty.

Economic Risks from Policy Changes: Proposed policies from political leaders like Donald Trump could further exacerbate inflation. His proposed tax cuts and corporate incentives, if implemented, may stimulate short-term economic growth. But they may also increase the national deficit. Additionally, his plans to implement tariffs on goods could push up prices across many sectors. Inflation could rise as a result of both. As prices rise, gold becomes an even more attractive option for protecting your wealth.

In addition, geopolitical risks, including trade wars and potential tariffs, could further strain economies. Creating even more volatility in financial markets. As such, gold is being sought after to hedge against such risks.

Conclusion

As you celebrate this holiday season, we wish you joy, peace, and prosperity in the year ahead. While we’re all focused on the people and traditions that bring us comfort, it’s also a good time to reflect on securing your financial well-being. Give yourself the gift of peace of mind this season—learn more about how gold, especially in a Gold IRA, can help safeguard your future. Call American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart
2. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-mid-year-outlook-2024
3. https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2020?amount=52000
4. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dimon-believes-u-public-110537564.html

• Goldman Sachs advises ‘Go for Gold’ – predicting it will break $3,000 an ounce in 2025.
• Record breaking demand is fueled by central bank demand, interest rate cuts, inflation, and global conflict.
• Physical precious metals held in a Gold IRA offer long term wealth protection and potential growth.

‘Go for Gold’ says Goldman Sachs

Russia’s recent threat of nuclear war caused gold prices to spike. But that is just the latest reason for gold to surge., Gold has been a standout performer in 2024. It recently hit a major milestone. A standard 400-ounce gold bar is now valued at $1 million. And the precious metal’s rally is far from over. Goldman Sachs is now telling clients to “Go for gold.” The investment giant predicts that gold prices could reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. Gold AND silver both offer a hedge against economic uncertainty and a potentially lucrative growth opportunity.¹

Goldman Sachs’ Bullish Case for Gold

²

Goldman Sachs has laid out several compelling reasons why gold is set to climb even higher in the coming years:

Central Bank Demand

Global central banks continue to buy gold as part of a diversification strategy away from the U.S. dollar. While the pace of buying has slowed slightly, demand remains near record levels. This trend is partly driven by growing U.S. debt, which makes Treasury bonds less appealing. Central banks see gold as a more stable and reliable reserve asset in the face of rising debt levels.

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

Gold prices tend to thrive during periods of monetary easing. And with unemployment on the rise, more rate cuts are likely on the horizon. Goldman Sachs analysts believe lower rates will help stabilize gold prices above $2,600 per ounce. The cuts set the stage for continued growth.

Furthermore, potential political interference may undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve. As a result, confidence in the U.S. dollar could falter, driving investors toward gold.

A Hedge Against Inflation

Inflationary pressures are re-emerging. The two major measures of inflation both rose in October. And they are poised to go up. Trump’s proposed tariffs may result in higher prices. Economists estimate they could cost the average U.S. household $2,600 annually. The tariffs would likely result in a rise in trade tensions, which would also help inflate gold prices.³

Geopolitical Uncertainty

Ongoing global conflicts are likely to support gold demand. Especially as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East grow hotter. The threat of global economic instability is driving investors to take a “flight to safety.” As gold proves itself to be a stable store of value in times of crisis.

The Technical Case for Gold

Gold’s bullish momentum isn’t just about economic fundamentals—it’s supported by strong technical indicators:

Historical Patterns: Since 1980, gold has gone through several bull and bear cycles. Key recovery periods like 2004, 2011, and 2024 highlight its resilience.

Breakouts Across Markets: Gold has reached all-time highs in major currencies, such as the Swiss Franc. This signals broad-based strength.

Silver/Gold Ratio Stability: Unlike past gold peaks, the silver/gold ratio isn’t spiking. An indicator that market sentiment isn’t overheated.

Relative Strength vs. Stocks: Gold’s strength against regional stock indices highlights its potential for long-term outperformance. And for the first time in 12 years, gold is outperforming emerging-market stocks.

As Goldman Sachs notes, inflation and geopolitical concerns are likely to keep gold on an upward trajectory. They recognize it as a critical portfolio diversifier.

Silver Is Also on the Rise

While gold has captured much of the spotlight, silver is quietly making its own headlines. According to the Silver Institute, silver demand is expected to exceed 1.2 billion ounces in 2024. A new record. Meanwhile, significant supply constraints are leaving a deficit of over 200 million ounces.⁴

Why Silver Is Gaining Momentum

Silver’s unique combination of investment appeal and industrial demand makes it a standout option:

Hedge Against Inflation and Instability: Like gold, silver serves as a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and systemic financial risks.

Dual Demand: Silver’s role as both a safe-haven asset and a key industrial component in the green economy has driven its price higher. Since March 2020, silver has outperformed many other commodities. That’s due to spiking demand for renewable energy technologies and electronics.

Interest Rate Impact: A recent report highlights silver’s historical performance during interest rate cuts.

“Monetary easing cycles are generally positive for the Silver Price,” the report states. “Since 1981, silver has risen in 6 out of the 7 easing cycles for an average gain of 16.8%.”⁵

A Supercycle in the Making: Analysts believe silver may be entering a supercycle, with price upswings lasting 10 to 20 years. While short-term volatility is possible, the overall trend is expected to remain upward.

Supply Constraints: The growing deficit in the silver market—driven by surging demand and limited supply—adds further support to prices. With industrial demand rising, silver’s long-term prospects remain strong.

Conclusion

Gold prices pulled back slightly after the election. The World Gold Council called the drop a buying opportunity:

“The gold price consolidation following the orderly U.S. election—flushing speculative positioning from near all-time highs—provides an attractive entry point to buy gold,” the council noted in its 2025 commodities outlook.⁶

Gold and silver are both positioned for sustained growth. Institutions and individuals are seeking refuge from inflation, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty. The case for protecting your wealth with precious metals has never been stronger. And a Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold offers long-term security against financial turmoil. Call 800-462-0071 now to learn how you can secure your financial future with precious metals.

Notes:
1. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-11-19/go-gold-says-goldman-sachs-prices-still-track-hit-3000-year-end-2025
2. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-says-gold-central-banks-023249823.html
3. https://fortune.com/2024/11/18/donald-trump-gold-trade-tariffs-inflation-national-debt-goldman-sachs/
4. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-11-19/multitude-factors-are-aligning-silver-supercycle-silver-institute
5. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-11-19/multitude-factors-are-aligning-silver-supercycle-silver-institute
6. https://fortune.com/2024/11/18/donald-trump-gold-trade-tariffs-inflation-national-debt-goldman-sachs/

• The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in November based on slowing inflation and a weakening job market
• Conflict between the Fed and Donald Trump is making the future of rate cuts uncertain
• Physical precious metals can preserve fund value no matter which side’s policy prevails

Trump, The Fed & Uncertainty

After holding interest rates near record highs for two years, the Fed issued their second cut since September. Motivated by recession fears, the cut is meant to help spur a lagging job market. But the Fed’s future policy could be thrown into turmoil as it collides with President-elect Trump’s bold economic agenda. The heightening uncertainty has insiders taking refuge in safe haven assets like precious precious metals.

Rate Cut

The Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability has them walking a tightrope. With inflation dropping from its record high 9.1%, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a point in November. However, high interest rates still have the economy in a “strangle hold” posing a risk to the job market.¹

Data shows the risks of the job market collapsing and inflation reigniting are the same now. There were 7.4 million job openings in September. Down considerably from 9.3 million that time last year. Unemployment is also up from last year – raising fears of recession.

²

Future Cuts

Several more rate cuts were expected for 2025. The number of cuts is now uncertain due to potential impacts from Trumps proposals. His plans for tax cuts, deregulation, and tariffs could cause inflation to rise and deficits to grow. In response, the Fed may not only stop cutting rates. They may feel it necessary to raise them again. Nomura Bank expects just one more cut in 2025 if Trump quickly implements his plans.

Trump vs the Fed

Despite economic data, Powell acknowledged that Americans have a poor view on the economy due the “lingering trauma of high inflation.” It’s that lingering trauma that helped re-elect Donald Trump.

Officially, the Federal Reserve decision making is independent of the government. Its independence is to protect it from short term political decision making. In the Fed’s own words, it was “designed to carry out its responsibilities without interference or control from the vested interests inherent in electoral politics, fiscal policymaking, and private banking.”³

Alan Greenspan, a five-term Fed chair, said in 1996. “The clear political preference for lower interest rates would unleash inflationary forces, inflicting severe damage on our economy.”⁴

Trump does not hide that he is no fan of the Fed. During his first term, he publicly attacked Powell after raising rates to fight inflation. Trump said about Powell: “He was supposed to be a low-interest-rate guy. It turned out he’s not. … I’m very unhappy with the Fed because Obama had zero interest rates.” Interestingly enough, it was Trump who first nominated Powell. ⁵

Control of Monetary Policy

Trump wants a voice in the central bank’s interest rate decisions. he said: “I think I’m better than most people would be in that position. I think I have the right to say, ‘I think you should go up or down a little bit.’ I don’t think I should be allowed to order it, but I think I have the right to put in comments as to whether or not interest rates should go up or down.”⁶

To that end, Trump maintains that he has ” the right to remove him [Powell].” When asked if Trump has the power to fire him, Powell said no. And demoting him is not permitted under law.

Powell said in the short term, the election won’t impact decision making. He implied another expected cut in December is likely to go ahead. That decision is still dependent on unemployment and inflation data.

Impact of Interference

If political pressure starts to tamper with the Federal Reserve’s independence, the ripple effect could extend far beyond Wall Street. Experts warn that undermining the Fed’s credibility would shake global financial stability. The concern isn’t just about interference from political figures. It’s about the risk of eroding trust in the Fed’s ability to manage inflation. If inflation expectations rise, the Fed might be forced to take drastic measures to regain control. Potentially plunging the economy into a deeper downturn. At worst, such moves could make the U.S. appear less like a stable economy and more like an unpredictable autocracy. The value of the dollar and goods at the whim of political agendas.

Defense Against Uncertainty

The only certainty about the tug of war between the President and the Federal Reserve is heightened uncertainty. To defend against that uncertainty, financial experts are looking to gold.

Historically, gold has held its value through economic and political upheavals. This year alone, gold prices have surged by over 30%. By 2025, some expect they could reach as high as $3,000 per ounce.

Gold is positioned well who wins control for monetary policy. Gold can preserve purchasing power against Trump’s inflationary pressures. Gold can also help shield against losses resulting from a recession triggered by the Fed being forced to raise rates. And a Gold IRA offers long term protection if these adversarial forces drag the economy into a prolonged downturn. To learn how to protect you retirement before it is too late, contact us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes
1. https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/07/economy/fed-meeting-rates-november/index.html
2. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/07/federal-reserve-interest-rates-lowered
3. https://www.marketplace.org/2024/10/28/fed-independence-federal-reserve-politics-trump-harris-election/
4. https://www.marketplace.org/2024/10/28/fed-independence-federal-reserve-politics-trump-harris-election/
5. https://www.marketplace.org/2024/10/28/fed-independence-federal-reserve-politics-trump-harris-election/
6. https://www.marketplace.org/2024/10/28/fed-independence-federal-reserve-politics-trump-harris-election/

• Goldman Sachs predicts stocks are facing a ‘lost decade’ of stock returns.
• The forecast is based on stock overvaluation and market concentration.
• As stocks face a decade of decline, gold is projected to rise to $7,000 an ounce in that same time – offering a safe haven for retirement funds.

A Decade of Poor Returns

The stock market’s high-flying days could be coming back down to earth, and investors may need a new plan. Goldman Sachs is warning that the next 10 years would be a “lost decade” for stocks. Facing potential returns of just 1%, Americans can look towards to physical precious metals to fortify their retirement funds.

End of the Bull Run?

For the past 10 years, the S&P 500 returned an annual average of 12.9%. And the market continues to hit new heights. As of October 30, the DJIA was at 42,233.051. Up by approximately 137% over the past 10 years.¹

Yet, Goldman Sachs said stocks could soon be facing a “lost decade.” According to their research, stocks would produce a nominal return of 3% per year. And a real, inflation adjusted return of just 1%. Those returns would be half of the average annualized return between 1928 and 2024. And in less favorable conditions, returns could potentially dip as low as -1%.²

.

³

Reasons for a Slowdown

Goldman analyzed several data sets to reach their conclusion.

Goldman compared today’s stock market to the last ‘Roaring 20s’ market 100 years ago. Today’s market is more overvalued than at almost any other time in U.S. history. The ratio of the stock market’s total market capitalization to GDP is more than five times higher today than a century ago. This ratio is known as the Warren Buffet indicator. That’s because Buffet considers it the best single measure of market valuation.

Then there is the CAPE value. The CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) ratio measures a stock’s price relative to its average earnings over the past 10 years. It helps investors gauge if the market is over- or undervalued. The current CAPE value is 38. That ranks in the 97th percentile going back to 1930.⁴

What analysts found most unprecedented was the current degree of concentration in the market. It is at its highest levels since the early 1930s. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for approximately 33% of the index’s market value. That surpasses the 27% share reached at the peak of the tech bubble in 2000. ⁵

Heavy concentration weighs on returns. When a few stocks hold most of the wealth, any loss can sharply impact the market’s overall value. Market leaders today may not retain that position in a decade. “It is extremely difficult for any firm to maintain high levels of sales growth and profit margins over a sustained period of time,” Goldman analysts wrote.⁶

Other investment banks, including JPMorgan, GMO and Apollo Global Management, echoed Goldman. Apollo said the S&P 500 could see average annualized returns below 3% within the next three years.

GMO pointed to six ‘lost decades’ going back to 1900. During these times, a 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio produced returns in the low single digits. Some failed to outpace inflation altogether. What all six periods had in common – stocks were trading at greatly overvalued prices.

The Counter Argument

Dr. Ed Yardeni is a prominent economist and financial market strategist. He offers up a different vision of the next decade. He sees a booming 2020s. In which, the S&P 500 would produce a total return of 11% annualized. He says a lost decade of stocks won’t occur if earnings and dividends continue to grow.

Yardeni dismisses overconcentration. Since tech permeates everything, he says all companies can be thought of technology companies now. And that technology will fuel higher productivity and lower costs. In turn, all companies can earn higher profit margins avoid the ‘lost decade.’

Conclusion

Yardeni’s forecast is based on unrealized potential of technology to produce profits. For him, high earnings would justify high valuations. But he operates on one hopeful assumption – that the leaders will still be leading.

However, “Hope is not a strategy.” Goldman’s data-driven forecast considers historical market trends and valuations, which may offer a more realistic assessment of the future. In contrast to falling stocks, gold is projected to reach $7,000 per ounce over the next decade.7 A potential increase of 203.82% from today’s price of $2,304. Now may be the time to protect your retirement funds against a potential “lost decade” by diversifying into physical gold. Contact American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn how a Gold IRA could help preserve and potentially grow your wealth.

Notes:
1. https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart
2. https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/is-there-a-lost-decade-ahead-for-stocks-3683339
3. https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/wall-street-is-worried-stocks-might-be-on-the-cusp-of-a-lost-decade-1b3e2512
4. https://www.barrons.com/articles/goldman-sachs-stock-market-lost-decade-9c9fd595
5. https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor-hub/article/top-sp-500-stocks-by-weight/
6. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/is-the-sp-too-concentrated
7. https://www.axi.com/int/blog/education/commodities/gold-price-forecasts