• Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” enacts permanent tax cuts and major spending reforms.
• Analysts warn the bill may lead to rising debt, inflation, and market volatility in the years ahead.
• Physical gold can help protect your finances from uncertainty and economic shocks.

The “Big Beautiful Bill”

President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” is being hailed as the signature legislation of his second term. It’s a sweeping measure with enormous implications for the U.S. economy, individual finances, and retirement savings. Touted by lawmakers as “the most consequential piece of legislation of our generation,” this bill delivers on many of Trump’s campaign promises.¹

It permanently extends the 2017 tax cuts and enacts broad spending and welfare reforms. It also boosts military and border security funding, and changes how federal programs operate. The bill is expected to reshape the financial landscape for years to come. Especially when it comes to gold and retirement savings.

What’s in the “Big Beautiful Bill”?

At its core, the “Big Beautiful Bill” is a tax and spending package that makes Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent. As well as introducing more reductions. The bill also includes cuts to several social service programs. In addition, it increases funding for military and border security.

Republican leaders describe the legislation as a way to avoid a potential 68% tax increase. They say it will control spending and maintain food assistance levels. Supporters view it as a defining achievement in regulatory reform, tax relief, and national security.

The Financial Impact

The “Big Beautiful Bill” is not without controversy. Financial analysts warn its benefits may not outweigh its costs. By extending and expanding tax cuts while increasing spending, the bill will significantly enlarge the national debt. Multiple independent groups, including the Penn-Wharton Budget Model and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, agree that federal debt will rise over the next 10 years. That’s even after factoring in projected economic growth.

²

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill will add $2.4 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade. Rising to nearly $3.4 trillion when accounting for interest payments.³

As the debt climbs and inflation risks increase, market volatility is likely to follow. This environment creates both risks and opportunities.

The Gold Market Responds

Gold has long been seen as a hedge against economic uncertainty, inflation, and currency devaluation. These concerns have been brought to the forefront during debates over the “Big Beautiful Bill”.

Gold prices responded immediately following the bill’s Senate passage. On July 1, 2025, spot gold rose to $3,315.26 per ounce.⁴ U.S. gold futures climbed as well. Several forces are at play:

Weaker U.S. Dollar: The bill’s deficit impact and accompanying economic uncertainty have contributed to a drop in the dollar. This makes gold more attractive to foreign investors.

Safe-Haven Demand: Concerns over inflation, tariffs, and long-term fiscal stability have driven investors toward gold.

Lower Interest Rates: The bill’s impact could help push the Fed to cut rates. Further supporting gold prices.

Analyst Outlook: Some forecasts now suggest gold could climb as high as $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 if instability continues.

In short, as the economic picture becomes more uncertain, gold is becoming the safe haven of choice across the investment spectrum.

Retirement Savers: Pros and Cons

For retirement savers, the “Big Beautiful Bill” presents a mixed picture.

On the positive side:

Extended Tax Cuts: By making the 2017 tax cuts permanent, the bill ensures that lower income tax rates remain in place. This benefits retirees, especially those drawing income from traditional 401(k)s and IRAs.

More Deductions: Older Americans may benefit from increased deductions. Up to $6,000 in the Senate version, helping reduce their taxable income.

However, there are longer-term risks:

Deficit and Inflation: As the national debt balloons, the risk of inflation grows. This could erode the real value of retirement savings, especially those held in cash or fixed-income assets.

Market Volatility: Rising uncertainty in policy, trade, and fiscal outlook may lead to significant swings in equity and bond markets. Retirement portfolios based on stocks and bonds may suffer.

No Major Structural Changes (Yet): The bill does not currently alter the rules for retirement accounts like 401(k)s or IRAs. Investors must rely on existing tools to navigate the shifting economic terrain.

Conclusion

Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” has introduced both significant opportunities and substantial volatility into the economy. On one hand, it offers meaningful tax relief. Particularly for retirees. On the other, it raises concerns about debt, inflation, and market instability.

Whether the bill’s effects turn out positive or create some bumps along the way, gold has a role to play. Holding physical precious metals in a Gold IRA lets you benefit from tax cuts while protecting your savings from uncertainty and rising debt.

Now is the time to act. Call American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071 to learn how adding physical gold to your retirement portfolio can help you stay protected and positioned for what’s ahead.

Notes:
1. https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/06/capitol-hill-touts-benefits-of-the-one-big-beautiful-bill/
2. https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/34583.jpeg
3. https://www.politifact.com/article/2025/jun/24/one-big-beautiful-bill-trump-taxes-senate/
4. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-weaker-dollar-tariff-uncertainty-before-deadline-2025-07-01/

 

 

 

Prepare for a Volatile Summer

The expression used to be, when it came to stocks and the summer, “Sell in May and go away.” But if you do that now, you might not like what you come back to in the fall. Despite the recent highs in the stock market and strong headline employment numbers, a series of looming risks point to potential turmoil ahead.

Between President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda, a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, debt ceiling brinkmanship in Washington, and rising inflation, the U.S. economy appears to be standing on a fault line. The pressure is building, and it may not hold much longer.

Tariff Deadline Approaches

On April 2, President Trump dubbed the day “Liberation Day” and launched sweeping new tariffs on America’s biggest trading partners. These sudden hikes spooked investors and triggered a market plunge. Although a 90-day pause on those tariffs led to a temporary rebound, that pause ends July 9, and the uncertainty is only growing.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that countries “negotiating in good faith” might get an extension. But President Trump made it clear that higher tariffs are coming: “Some [countries] will be disappointed because they’re going to have to pay tariffs.”¹

Expect the U.S. to notify other nations of their final tariff obligations by mid-July. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick even raised the possibility of regional tariff strategies, meaning countries like Vietnam and Malaysia could face dramatically different terms, even if they’re neighbors. That unpredictability is making some businesses think twice about their investment and hiring plans.

The Hidden Inflation Danger

Renewed tariffs could also hit American consumers directly. According to Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings, “We expect Consumer Price Index inflation to trend higher towards 4% at the end of the year.” The most recent CPI data shows inflation at 2.4%, but with tariff costs trickling into retail prices, that figure could climb fast.²

Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, explained: “We know it’s coming. There’s a lag between changes in tariffs and when they show up in prices you and I are paying.”³

If President Trump allows the “Liberation Day” tariffs to fully resume on July 9, expect the inflation outlook to worsen. This puts the Federal Reserve in a bind. The Fed cannot lower interest rates to stimulate the economy while inflation is still running hot.

⁴

Torsten Sløk is the chief economist at Apollo Global Management. He warns that the U.S. is entering a dangerous phase of stagflation. A period when inflation stays high while economic growth stalls. “Tariff hikes are typically stagflationary shocks,” Sløk warned. “They simultaneously increase the probability of an economic slowdown while putting upward pressure on prices.”⁵

Apollo now forecasts GDP growth to slow to 1.2% in 2025, compared to 3.1% in Q3 of last year. Meanwhile, inflation expectations have climbed from 2.4% to 3%, and unemployment, still low at 4.2%, is projected to rise above 5% by 2026.

Most concerning: Apollo now places the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 25%.  Sløk is cautioning that tariffs could push the economy into a “voluntary trade reset recession” by this summer.

Middle East Tensions Add Fuel to the Fire

Further adding to the summer of discontent is the unstable ceasefire in the Middle East. After U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, tensions between Israel and Iran escalated dramatically. President Trump later announced a ceasefire on June 23, which calmed oil markets, but the situation remains fragile.

Any renewed conflict could send oil prices soaring. Historically, spikes in oil prices, like during the 1990 Gulf War, have triggered recessions. With the global economy already expected to slow to 2.8% growth this year, a surge in energy prices could tip the world into a recession.

Analysts warn that the possibility of a double shock—a combination of tariffs and war—increases the likelihood of a global recession. They’re describing it as “as close to a smoking gun as you can get” in forecasting circles.⁶

Debt Ceiling Showdown Looms

As if tariffs and geopolitical tension weren’t enough, Washington is facing another self-inflicted crisis. The U.S. could default on its debt as early as August, according to Treasury Secretary Bessent. Trump has pressured Congress to raise the borrowing limit as part of his “One Big, Beautiful Bill” by July 4, but political gridlock remains.

Conclusion

The stock market may still be posting record highs, but economists are increasingly sounding the alarm. Tariffs are poised to return with full force. Inflation is rising. Global conflict threatens to spike energy prices. And Washington is heading for another fiscal cliff.

From stagflation to a potential recession, the summer ahead may prove one of the most volatile in recent memory. The convergence of so many economic flashpoints at once means there is little room for error and even less room for safety. Holding physical precious metals in a Gold IRA can protect your retirement savings from volatility. Before your funds feel the heat, contact American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes
1. https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/30/economy/trump-summer-of-economic-hell
2. https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/30/economy/trump-summer-of-economic-hell
3. https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/30/economy/trump-summer-of-economic-hell
4. https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-us-economy-inflation-unemployment-outlook-apollo-torsten-slok-2025-6
5. https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-us-economy-inflation-unemployment-outlook-apollo-torsten-slok-2025-6
6. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-lethal-combination-war-and-tariffs-are-recession-triggers-the-stock-market-hasnt-fully-absorbed-bf6024e1?mod=home_ln

 

 

 

• Rising conflict between Israel and Iran drives renewed interest in gold as a geopolitical safe haven.
• Inflation concerns and uncertainty over tariff impacts are keeping the Fed in a wait-and-see stance.
• With rate cuts likely later this year, now is the time to protect your finances with physical gold.

A Showdown Between the White House and the Fed

The economy is on edge as a major policy clash unfolds at the highest levels of government. President Donald Trump wants immediate rate cuts to ward off a future downturn. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is refusing to budge. Their disagreement has sparked a broader debate: should we act now to protect the economy, or wait until the damage is already done?

This tug-of-war between proactive and reactive policy has real consequences for markets and for your money. With interest rate cuts still likely later this year, many are turning to gold now, before the landscape shifts.

Powell’s Cautious Approach

Despite pressure from President Trump, Jerome Powell has made it clear: the Fed is not ready to cut rates. Powell continues to emphasize the central bank’s dual mandate of low inflation and full employment, warning that price stability is the foundation of sustained economic strength.

Currently, inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target. Powell expects the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation to rise to 2.3% in May, with core inflation—excluding food and energy—ticking up to 2.6%. For now, Powell sees a strong labor market and decent economic growth as reasons to keep policy steady. The Fed’s benchmark interest rate remains in a restrictive range of 4.25% to 4.50%, where it has been since December 2024.¹

Even Powell acknowledged that rates may be too restrictive in hindsight. But said he’s not ready to change course yet. “If you just look in the rear-view mirror and look at the existing data we’ve seen, you can make a good argument that would call for us to be at a neutral level,” he said. “The reason we’re not is that…we do expect a meaningful increase in inflation over the course of this year.”³

Trump Wants Action Now

President Trump sees it differently. He has called for aggressive cuts of “at least” two to three percentage points, saying that lower rates now would save the country $800 billion annually and help avoid a future crisis.

Frustrated with the Fed’s refusal to act, Trump has repeatedly criticized Powell, calling him a “very dumb, hardheaded person” and accusing him of holding the economy back. “No inflation, great economy—We should be at least two to three points lower,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post.⁴

Trump’s message is simple: don’t wait for things to go wrong. Cut rates now while the economy is strong and increase them later if needed.

Tariffs and Inflation: The Fed’s Sticking Point

One of the key reasons the Fed hasn’t moved is concern over President Trump’s own policies, specifically, tariffs. Powell has said that if not for the inflation risk tied to the President’s April 2 tariff hikes, the Fed “would have likely already lowered interest rates.”

The inflationary effects of tariffs, Powell said, are expected to show up in June and July’s data. “We do expect to show up—tariff inflation to show up more,” he told Congress. “But…we really don’t know how much of that’s going to be passed through to the consumers… It could be lower than we expect; it could be higher. We have to wait and see.”⁵

That uncertainty is driving the Fed’s wait-and-see approach.

Not All Fed Officials Agree

While Powell remains cautious, some Fed officials are warming to the idea of cuts. Seven believe rates will hold steady this year, but ten support two or more cuts. Two governors, Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman, have said they could support a cut at the next meeting in July if inflation continues to ease or the labor market weakens.

New York Fed President John Williams described rates as “modestly restrictive” and appropriate for now. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic added that the U.S. has “space and time” to determine the right path, especially since businesses are already adjusting to global supply disruptions.

Cuts Are Likely—Just Not Yet

Markets aren’t expecting a rate cut in July. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s only an 18.6% chance of a cut then. But the probability jumps to 87% by September. In short: cuts are still coming, it’s just a matter of when.⁶

That timing matters for investors. Lower interest rates can weaken the dollar, drive inflation expectations higher, and make gold more attractive. If the Fed waits too long, the economic damage may already be underway. If they cut too soon, they risk reigniting inflation.

Conclusion

Whether you side with President Trump’s proactive stance or Powell’s cautious approach, one thing is certain: volatility is coming. Gold has long been a hedge against inflation, currency risk, and monetary uncertainty. And when the Fed eventually does cut rates, gold often responds by climbing in value.

Contact American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071 to learn how holding physical precious metals in a Gold IRA can help protect your wealth. You don’t need to wait for the first rate cut to make a move, position yourself now, while the opportunity is clear.

Notes:
1. https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/24/powell-emphasizes-feds-obligation-to-prevent-ongoing-inflation-problem-despite-trump-criticism.html
2. https://www.statista.com/chart/21023/us-federal-funds-target-rate/
3. https://www.ft.com/content/9659042d-35c3-4540-8140-0c0f86cbe5c1
4. https://newrepublic.com/post/197144/donald-trump-federal-reserve-jerome-powell-economy
5. https://www.npr.org/2025/06/24/nx-s1-5442665/federal-reserve-powell-economy-interest-rates-tariffs
6. https://www.barrons.com/livecoverage/fed-jerome-powell-senate-house