BRICS Continue Dollar Assault

In Rio de Janeiro, plans for a seismic shift in the global economy are underway. The BRICS Summit is quietly working to weaken the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade and finance. Western analysts are quick to dismiss the effort as fragmented and unrealistic. But the BRICS are taking a patient, long-term approach. And the threat to the dollar, and to your financial security, is very real.

BRICS Rising: A New Power in the Global Economy

The clout of BRICS is growing fast, especially as it expands its membership. Originally, it included Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Today they are joined by Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. The BRICS nations now represent 49% of the world’s population and 39% of global GDP. BRICS members control approximately 43% of global oil production and a similar share of global oil trade. ¹

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BRICS are positioning themselves as a voice of the Global South. They are openly opposing U.S. policies such as trade tariffs and airstrikes on Iran. In response, Trump threatened to slap a 10% tariff on any country aligning with the “Anti-American policies of BRICS”. That warning was on top of his threat to imposed100% tariffs on BRICS goods if they dared introduce their own currency.

A New Currency to Challenge the Dollar?

Brazilian President Lula da Silva has explicitly proposed developing a new currency to boost the BRICS and undermine the dollar.

If realized, this move could reshape global trade. And turn the BRICS into a force to be reckoned with.  Notably, there are discussions about backing this new currency with gold. Doing so would give the new currency stability and credibility. It would also likely send gold prices soaring even higher.

Building Their Own Financial System

BRICS is already challenging the established financial order.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is largely seen as a tool of Western influence by the Global South. For the first time, the bloc has presented a unified position to reform the IMF. They are pushing for a new IMF formula that would give BRICS members more say.

To support their goals, BRICS is also expanding the role of the Shanghai-based New Development Bank (NDB). This multilateral bank is funded by BRICS members. It has grown its lending from $10 billion to $39 billion since 2020. The NDB works to help developing countries lower finance costs and attract investment. And its popularity is growing. The NDB has recently brought in members like Colombia, Uzbekistan, and Indonesia. All seeking alternatives to the IMF and World Bank.³

De-Dollarization in Action

The shift away from the dollar isn’t just talk, it’s already happening.

At this summit, Russian President Putin stated:

“The use of national currencies in trade among our countries is steadily growing. In 2024, the share of our national currency, the ruble, along with the currencies of friendly nations, accounted for 90% of Russia’s settlements with other BRICS states.”⁴

Russia also announced that internal BRICS trade has crossed the $1 trillion mark. A milestone in dollar-free trade. In addition, China and Russia have signed bilateral agreements to settle trade in yuan and rubles.⁵

BRICS is also piloting the “BRICS Bridge”. It is a cross-border payment platform designed to make dollar-free transactions among members faster and easier. The platform is a keystone in a truly independent financial system.

The Risks to the Dollar and Your Wealth

Some Western analysts still dismiss these developments. They say the BRICS lacks unity. Or that the dollar is too entrenched to challenge. But that view is short-sighted.

BRICS, particularly China, is known for playing the long game. Today’s patchwork infrastructure may seem disjointed. But over time, it could result in half the world turning its back on the dollar.

If that happens, the consequences for Americans could be severe:

Weakened Dollar: Lower global demand could fuel inflation and raise living costs.

Higher Interest Rates: Foreign investors may sell U.S. debt, making borrowing more expensive.

Lost Trade Advantage: Alternative currencies could reduce U.S. influence in global trade.

Reduced Geopolitical Power: U.S. sanctions and diplomacy would carry less weight.

Market Instability: Diversification away from the dollar could hurt U.S. assets and increase volatility.

Conclusion

The U.S. dollar is already facing challenges from record national debt and inflation to a loss of credibility.  BRICS continued de-dollarization could directly hurt the value of your retirement savings. But there’s a way to hedge against these risks. By holding physical precious metals in a Gold IRA. And if the BRICS succeed in launching a gold-backed currency, the value of gold could rise even further.

Don’t wait until the dollar loses more ground. Contact American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn how you can protect your retirement with gold.

Notes:
1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2025-07-07/brics-is-getting-increasingly-harder-to-ignore
2. https://www.indiatoday.in/diu/story/the-truth-behind-trump-claim-that-brics-is-broken-up-2750776-2025-07-04
3. https://www.ndb.int/projects/
4. https://watcher.guru/news/90-of-deals-paid-in-local-currencies-russia-at-brics-2025-summit
5. https://harici.com.tr/en/brics-internal-trade-volume-hits-the-1-trillion-mark/

 

 

 

• Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” enacts permanent tax cuts and major spending reforms.
• Analysts warn the bill may lead to rising debt, inflation, and market volatility in the years ahead.
• Physical gold can help protect your finances from uncertainty and economic shocks.

The “Big Beautiful Bill”

President Donald Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” is being hailed as the signature legislation of his second term. It’s a sweeping measure with enormous implications for the U.S. economy, individual finances, and retirement savings. Touted by lawmakers as “the most consequential piece of legislation of our generation,” this bill delivers on many of Trump’s campaign promises.¹

It permanently extends the 2017 tax cuts and enacts broad spending and welfare reforms. It also boosts military and border security funding, and changes how federal programs operate. The bill is expected to reshape the financial landscape for years to come. Especially when it comes to gold and retirement savings.

What’s in the “Big Beautiful Bill”?

At its core, the “Big Beautiful Bill” is a tax and spending package that makes Trump’s 2017 tax cuts permanent. As well as introducing more reductions. The bill also includes cuts to several social service programs. In addition, it increases funding for military and border security.

Republican leaders describe the legislation as a way to avoid a potential 68% tax increase. They say it will control spending and maintain food assistance levels. Supporters view it as a defining achievement in regulatory reform, tax relief, and national security.

The Financial Impact

The “Big Beautiful Bill” is not without controversy. Financial analysts warn its benefits may not outweigh its costs. By extending and expanding tax cuts while increasing spending, the bill will significantly enlarge the national debt. Multiple independent groups, including the Penn-Wharton Budget Model and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, agree that federal debt will rise over the next 10 years. That’s even after factoring in projected economic growth.

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill will add $2.4 trillion to the federal debt over the next decade. Rising to nearly $3.4 trillion when accounting for interest payments.³

As the debt climbs and inflation risks increase, market volatility is likely to follow. This environment creates both risks and opportunities.

The Gold Market Responds

Gold has long been seen as a hedge against economic uncertainty, inflation, and currency devaluation. These concerns have been brought to the forefront during debates over the “Big Beautiful Bill”.

Gold prices responded immediately following the bill’s Senate passage. On July 1, 2025, spot gold rose to $3,315.26 per ounce.⁴ U.S. gold futures climbed as well. Several forces are at play:

Weaker U.S. Dollar: The bill’s deficit impact and accompanying economic uncertainty have contributed to a drop in the dollar. This makes gold more attractive to foreign investors.

Safe-Haven Demand: Concerns over inflation, tariffs, and long-term fiscal stability have driven investors toward gold.

Lower Interest Rates: The bill’s impact could help push the Fed to cut rates. Further supporting gold prices.

Analyst Outlook: Some forecasts now suggest gold could climb as high as $3,700 per ounce by the end of 2025 if instability continues.

In short, as the economic picture becomes more uncertain, gold is becoming the safe haven of choice across the investment spectrum.

Retirement Savers: Pros and Cons

For retirement savers, the “Big Beautiful Bill” presents a mixed picture.

On the positive side:

Extended Tax Cuts: By making the 2017 tax cuts permanent, the bill ensures that lower income tax rates remain in place. This benefits retirees, especially those drawing income from traditional 401(k)s and IRAs.

More Deductions: Older Americans may benefit from increased deductions. Up to $6,000 in the Senate version, helping reduce their taxable income.

However, there are longer-term risks:

Deficit and Inflation: As the national debt balloons, the risk of inflation grows. This could erode the real value of retirement savings, especially those held in cash or fixed-income assets.

Market Volatility: Rising uncertainty in policy, trade, and fiscal outlook may lead to significant swings in equity and bond markets. Retirement portfolios based on stocks and bonds may suffer.

No Major Structural Changes (Yet): The bill does not currently alter the rules for retirement accounts like 401(k)s or IRAs. Investors must rely on existing tools to navigate the shifting economic terrain.

Conclusion

Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” has introduced both significant opportunities and substantial volatility into the economy. On one hand, it offers meaningful tax relief. Particularly for retirees. On the other, it raises concerns about debt, inflation, and market instability.

Whether the bill’s effects turn out positive or create some bumps along the way, gold has a role to play. Holding physical precious metals in a Gold IRA lets you benefit from tax cuts while protecting your savings from uncertainty and rising debt.

Now is the time to act. Call American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071 to learn how adding physical gold to your retirement portfolio can help you stay protected and positioned for what’s ahead.

Notes:
1. https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/2025/06/capitol-hill-touts-benefits-of-the-one-big-beautiful-bill/
2. https://cdn.statcdn.com/Infographic/images/normal/34583.jpeg
3. https://www.politifact.com/article/2025/jun/24/one-big-beautiful-bill-trump-taxes-senate/
4. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-rises-weaker-dollar-tariff-uncertainty-before-deadline-2025-07-01/

 

 

 

Prepare for a Volatile Summer

The expression used to be, when it came to stocks and the summer, “Sell in May and go away.” But if you do that now, you might not like what you come back to in the fall. Despite the recent highs in the stock market and strong headline employment numbers, a series of looming risks point to potential turmoil ahead.

Between President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff agenda, a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East, debt ceiling brinkmanship in Washington, and rising inflation, the U.S. economy appears to be standing on a fault line. The pressure is building, and it may not hold much longer.

Tariff Deadline Approaches

On April 2, President Trump dubbed the day “Liberation Day” and launched sweeping new tariffs on America’s biggest trading partners. These sudden hikes spooked investors and triggered a market plunge. Although a 90-day pause on those tariffs led to a temporary rebound, that pause ends July 9, and the uncertainty is only growing.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that countries “negotiating in good faith” might get an extension. But President Trump made it clear that higher tariffs are coming: “Some [countries] will be disappointed because they’re going to have to pay tariffs.”¹

Expect the U.S. to notify other nations of their final tariff obligations by mid-July. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick even raised the possibility of regional tariff strategies, meaning countries like Vietnam and Malaysia could face dramatically different terms, even if they’re neighbors. That unpredictability is making some businesses think twice about their investment and hiring plans.

The Hidden Inflation Danger

Renewed tariffs could also hit American consumers directly. According to Olu Sonola, head of U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings, “We expect Consumer Price Index inflation to trend higher towards 4% at the end of the year.” The most recent CPI data shows inflation at 2.4%, but with tariff costs trickling into retail prices, that figure could climb fast.²

Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, explained: “We know it’s coming. There’s a lag between changes in tariffs and when they show up in prices you and I are paying.”³

If President Trump allows the “Liberation Day” tariffs to fully resume on July 9, expect the inflation outlook to worsen. This puts the Federal Reserve in a bind. The Fed cannot lower interest rates to stimulate the economy while inflation is still running hot.

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Torsten Sløk is the chief economist at Apollo Global Management. He warns that the U.S. is entering a dangerous phase of stagflation. A period when inflation stays high while economic growth stalls. “Tariff hikes are typically stagflationary shocks,” Sløk warned. “They simultaneously increase the probability of an economic slowdown while putting upward pressure on prices.”⁵

Apollo now forecasts GDP growth to slow to 1.2% in 2025, compared to 3.1% in Q3 of last year. Meanwhile, inflation expectations have climbed from 2.4% to 3%, and unemployment, still low at 4.2%, is projected to rise above 5% by 2026.

Most concerning: Apollo now places the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months at 25%.  Sløk is cautioning that tariffs could push the economy into a “voluntary trade reset recession” by this summer.

Middle East Tensions Add Fuel to the Fire

Further adding to the summer of discontent is the unstable ceasefire in the Middle East. After U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 21, tensions between Israel and Iran escalated dramatically. President Trump later announced a ceasefire on June 23, which calmed oil markets, but the situation remains fragile.

Any renewed conflict could send oil prices soaring. Historically, spikes in oil prices, like during the 1990 Gulf War, have triggered recessions. With the global economy already expected to slow to 2.8% growth this year, a surge in energy prices could tip the world into a recession.

Analysts warn that the possibility of a double shock—a combination of tariffs and war—increases the likelihood of a global recession. They’re describing it as “as close to a smoking gun as you can get” in forecasting circles.⁶

Debt Ceiling Showdown Looms

As if tariffs and geopolitical tension weren’t enough, Washington is facing another self-inflicted crisis. The U.S. could default on its debt as early as August, according to Treasury Secretary Bessent. Trump has pressured Congress to raise the borrowing limit as part of his “One Big, Beautiful Bill” by July 4, but political gridlock remains.

Conclusion

The stock market may still be posting record highs, but economists are increasingly sounding the alarm. Tariffs are poised to return with full force. Inflation is rising. Global conflict threatens to spike energy prices. And Washington is heading for another fiscal cliff.

From stagflation to a potential recession, the summer ahead may prove one of the most volatile in recent memory. The convergence of so many economic flashpoints at once means there is little room for error and even less room for safety. Holding physical precious metals in a Gold IRA can protect your retirement savings from volatility. Before your funds feel the heat, contact American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes
1. https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/30/economy/trump-summer-of-economic-hell
2. https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/30/economy/trump-summer-of-economic-hell
3. https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/30/economy/trump-summer-of-economic-hell
4. https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-us-economy-inflation-unemployment-outlook-apollo-torsten-slok-2025-6
5. https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-us-economy-inflation-unemployment-outlook-apollo-torsten-slok-2025-6
6. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-lethal-combination-war-and-tariffs-are-recession-triggers-the-stock-market-hasnt-fully-absorbed-bf6024e1?mod=home_ln