• The Federal Reserve’s eighth interest rate increase is the smallest since March
• Wall Street is rallying on hopes of a Fed pivot, despite Fed assurances that hikes will continue
• As Wall Street and the Fed fight, investors can come out ahead by turning to physical precious metals

Wall Street and the Fed Battle over Rate Hikes

Federal Reserve officials made their eighth interest rate increase in a year on Wednesday. They raised it a quarter-point in their continued fight against inflation. Wall Street and the Fed are finding themselves in a standoff. Investors are eager for the Fed to pivot on rate hikes so markets can rebound. The Fed is focused on bringing down inflation even it means crashing stock prices. There is a way to come out ahead as these two forces clash.

Investors and policymakers have been deadlocked for a while now. The Federal Reserve insists rates will rise above 5% and stay there for some time. Money markets see the Fed struggling to get rates above 5% and have priced in cuts by year-end. This view has helped fuel a tech- and growth-led rally for stocks in 2023.

This scene has repeated several times over the past year. Stocks, bonds, and crypto rally as Wall Street hopes for a halt in rate hikes. The stop doesn’t happen, and prices come crashing back down.

Fed Chair Powell tried to deflate this unfounded investor optimism. “I just don’t see us cutting rates this year,” he said. But he inadvertently fueled that hope. Stocks turned sharply upward after Mr. Powell said that future decisions on rates would be made meeting by meeting. In other words, investors could hope rate hikes might stop at any time.¹

The resulting rallies don’t help the Fed’s effort to tame inflation. Higher stock and bond prices increase capital companies can spend. This can stoke more demand and potentially drive-up prices and keep inflation elevated.

There will be no ‘Fed put’ as it is called. Since the late 1980s, traders had been taught that the Fed was always there to prop up financial markets. It would scrap plans to hike rates or maybe even start cutting them. Even though that era slammed to a stop last year, traders still hold faith in the idea.

Neel Kashkari is President of the Minneapolis Fed. He warned investors: If they doubt the central bank’s resolve to properly finish the job on inflation, even at the cost of putting millions of Americans out of work, they are mistaken. “They are going to lose the game of chicken, I can tell you that.”²

The Fed’s View on Inflation

“Inflation has eased somewhat but remains elevated,” officials said in their statement announcing the rate decision. They repeated that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate. “We’re talking about a couple more rate hikes,” said Powell.³

Powell did say that disinflation has begun. But the Fed doesn’t want to prematurely declare victory over inflation. He thinks inflation is still running hot despite recent drops. Powell expects to keep rates high through 2023. The chairman said it would be bad to realize, months from now, that the Fed had not done enough to bring inflation under control. And while
Powell is still holding out hope of a soft landing, he is being very careful not to build expectations.

How to Come Out Ahead

Wall Street and the Fed are two powerful institutions in the U.S. economy. Right now, they are at loggerheads. The Fed wants to return to low inflation while Wall Street wants to return to profits. The means to achieve their ends stand in direct opposition.

The way to get ahead in this conflict is to step outside of it. Investors should look beyond paper securities and into safe haven assets like physical precious metals. Gold prices are on track for their third monthly gain. They surged above $1,900 an ounce on expectations that rates will soon stop rising. This brought Treasury yields and the dollar down. Central banks also bought bullion. A Reuter’s poll of 38 analysts predicted the price of gold to keep rising through the year and into the next.⁴ Learn how a Gold IRA can be your path to wealth preservation and profit. Contact us today.

Notes:
1. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/01/business/fed-interest-rates-inflation
2. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-01/fed-interest-rate-hike-is-latest-salvo-in-wall-street-battle
3. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2023/02/01/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-meeting-live-updates/11135680002/
4. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-edges-higher-track-third-straight-monthly-gain-2023-01-31/

• The Inflation Reduction Act’s new taxes on business have taken effect
• The ill-timed taxes can hurt corporate earnings and lower stock prices
• Investors turn to precious metals since they are not subject to the new taxes

Higher Business Taxes Threaten 401(k) Savings

Business taxes are rising as the economic forecast grows worse. Biden signed the Inflation Reduction Act into law in August 2022. It includes a corporate alternative minimum tax (CAMT). The CAMT is a 15% minimum tax on large corporations. Also, parts of the 2017 tax overhaul are set to expire. These new business taxes are likely to hurt the value of retirement funds as they cause corporate earnings and stock prices to drop.

Biden tweeted, “It’s 2023. That means the largest, most profitable corporations will have to start paying a 15% minimum tax. The days of the wealthiest companies not paying taxes are over.” These taxes are going to pay for the left-wing agenda found in the Inflation Reduction Act. However, the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) found that revenue from the bill won’t cover the costs of all the new programs. It will come up about $100 billion short.¹

Creating more taxes and adding more debt is bad for the economy. Adding new taxes on businesses during a recession is even worse. Around 200 of the country’s largest corporations will feel the brunt of the new taxes. The JCT estimates that the taxes will hit US manufacturing the hardest. Their new tax burden will be over $150 billion. 401(k) anchors like Tesla, Ford Motor, Amazon, and Salesforce are also targeted. Aerospace and defense company Raytheon Technologies said their tax bill spiked by $1.5 billion.

Experts expect the new taxes to drag on 2023 earnings. Goldman Sachs said, “We estimate that all of these provisions would lower 2023 S&P [earnings per share] by three percent.”²

“On the impact of tax increases in a recessionary period, we are highly concerned,” said Chris Netram from the National Association of Manufacturers. He continued, “Some of the items that have already taken effect, that Congress failed to reverse at the end of last year, are causing a lot of pain for our members.” A fragmented Congress is highly unlikely to do anything to help despite calls from the business community.³

Effect on the Economy

The policies of the Biden administration are the exact opposite of what usually happens during a downturn. Taxes and interest rates are normally reduced to help business. Now, taxes are increasing. And the Federal Reserve is raising interest rates at an unprecedented pace to combat inflation. Together, they are stifling growth and encouraging recession.

These new taxes can harm the value of 401(k)s and IRAs by reducing the value of stocks held within them. Investors can defend their retirement funds from Biden’s agenda-driven taxes. They can preserve their wealth by diversifying with assets that are out of the Democrat’s grasp. Safe haven assets like precious metals can protect the value of a 401(k) from the new business taxes. Contact us today to learn how our Gold IRA defends your nest egg from taxes, inflation, and recession.

Notes:
1. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/corporate-alternative-minimum-tax-now-182026379.html
2. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/business-taxes-rising-us-economy-heads-choppy-water
3. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/business-taxes-rising-us-economy-heads-choppy-water

• CEOs meeting at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos expressed a negative outlook on the global economy
• The WEF found inflation to be the leading short-term crisis
• The UN Secretary General joined business leaders in expressing concern for a global recession

A Negative Outlook from the World Economic Forum

The World Economic Forum is underway in Davos, Switzerland. Judging from the dismal predictions of the nearly 600 CEOs in attendance, the key theme is negativity about the global economy. The macroeconomic forces they are addressing will impact the financial well-being of everyone on the planet.

The World Economic Forum Annual Global Risks Report found the inflation crisis poses the greatest short-term risk facing the world right now. The report determined the Ukraine war, and the pandemic turned the energy crisis, food scarcity and inflation into the most pressing global issues. The report has been published for the Davos summit for 17 years. It factors in the views of 1,200 figures across the private and public sectors. And the World Economic Forum survey found 63% of chief economists think we are heading into a global recession.

The UN Secretary General offered his bleak view of the global economy at Davos. He said, “We are looking into the eye of a Category 5 hurricane. Our world is plagued by a perfect storm on a number of fronts. Start with the short term, the global economic crisis. The outlook, as we all know, is bleak. Many parts of the world face recession and the entire world faces a slowdown.” He said we are facing a “clear recession perspective” due to the war in Ukraine, soaring inflation, rising interest rates and supple chain disruptions.¹

He fears what he calls the Great Fracture – the global economy splitting between China and the West. This could result in two different sets of trade rules, dominant currencies, and internets. The IMF reported that such a divided world economy could cut global GDP by $1.4 trillion.

Outlook from the C-Suite

CEOs shared an overall negative outlook on the global economy. UBS CEO Ralph Hamers said the “era of higher inflation is here to stay”. He continued, “what we do believe is that certainly inflation is on the way back, both in the U.S. as well as in Europe.”²

Standard Chartered CEO Bill Winters said, “Inflation is not done” and suggested the Fed “has got a way to go.”³

Swiss Re CEO says inflation won’t fall back to low levels for at least 10 years. “I wouldn’t get too excited about the end of the Fed hiking cycle.”⁴

If CEOs are negative, so are everyday people. Inflation hovers around 40-year highs. The World Bank warned the global economy was perilously close to recession. And the IMF director said global economic growth will slow down in 2023. A global survey of more than 32,000 people across 28 countries found 60% of people believe they will be worse off in five years. The report has been conducted for more than two decades. It found economic optimism is at “all-time lows”.

The elites are meeting to discuss the fate of their business fortunes in Davos. Yet, their personal fortunes are unlikely to be in real danger. This cannot be said for everyone else. As they argue policy and proposals, individuals concerned about their financial future need to act. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can protect the value of your retirement fund during a global downturn. Contact us to learn more about it today.

Notes:

1. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/global-economy-heading-eye-category-5-hurricane-un-secretary-general-warns
2. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/17/the-year-of-inflection-top-bank-ceos-weigh-in-on-inflation-outlook.html
3. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/17/the-year-of-inflection-top-bank-ceos-weigh-in-on-inflation-outlook.html
4. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/17/the-year-of-inflection-top-bank-ceos-weigh-in-on-inflation-outlook.html

• Subjective inflation data is used to try and predict which way the markets will go
• Wall Street traders see inflation going down vs. the Fed who thinks inflation will linger
• As a result, the only thing investors can count on is higher market volatility

What Inflation Data Means to Investors

Before every Consumer Price Index inflation report comes out, there is tense speculation. Is inflation falling or rising? Will the market rally or collapse? Every bit of data is analyzed to determine what the Fed will do next. Even though the Fed clearly states their position. There is what the markets want and what the Fed wants. Somewhere in between, lies the best course of action to protect the value of your retirement funds.

Economic data so far has been unclear. Overall inflation is dropping. But core inflation, the rate when volatile fuel and food have been removed, is increasing. Wage growth is easing which should reduce inflation. Yet unemployment is also easing, which means inflation should remain steady.

Based on trade data, Wall Street expects inflation to fall faster than economists and Fed officials do. The Fed Fund Futures market bets on the inflation rate. It sees inflation coming down to 2.5% in the next seven months.

Federal Reserve projections say inflation will remain well above 3% until 2024. Fed officials have clearly signaled that interest rates must be raised above 5% to hit their 2% inflation target.¹

Investors seem to be forgetting a basic rule. Don’t fight the Fed. The disconnect between Wall Street and the Fed will result in more market volatility ahead. “I think at some point the markets will realize, ‘oh we can’t get to 2%,” and then the markets probably do sell off on that. I think maybe in short term [the stocks go] up and then in the second quarter, they go back down as people realize that 2% is not realistic,” said chief strategist at Spouting Rock Asset Management.²

BlackRock is the world’s largest asset manager. They have $10 trillion in assets under management. They warn that investors are underestimating the threat of stubborn high inflation and elevated interest rates. They see inflation running hot well into 2023. The firm sees little chance of the Federal Reserve cutting rates even if the economy slides into recession. “Even with a recession coming, we think we are going to be living with inflation,” they wrote. “We do see inflation cooling as spending patterns normalize and energy prices relent – but we see it persisting above policy targets in coming years.”³

As the ‘will they’ ‘won’t they’ debate plays out about interest rate hikes, the market continues to struggle. All three major indexes fell this past year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the year down 8.8%, the best of the three. The S&P 500 sank 19.4%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite plunged 33.1%.⁴

Longest Bear Market in History

A study by Motley Fool shows that this may turn into the longest bear market in history. Most bear markets turn around in under a year. As of the closing bell on Jan. 4, 2023, the S&P 500 had spent 282 calendar days in a bear market. And it doesn’t look close to hitting bottom. The Fed published its “Summary of Economic Projections.” It said not to expect interest rate easing until 2024. If that’s the case, and the S&P 500 adheres to this century’s average timeline to find a bottom, we’re talking about a bear market that could easily top more than 1,000 calendar days. It will become the longest on record. As of now, the longest bear market occurred between 2000 and 2002 and lasted 929 calendar days.⁵

Wall Street vs. the Fed. Optimism vs. history. With all the subjective data, the path to protecting the value of your retirement funds doesn’t seem clear. 99% of us aren’t in a position to know the whole truth. Investors should tune out the noise and rely on what is tried and true. The one safe haven asset that outperformed a sinking market this past year is gold. Contact us today to learn how our Gold IRA can preserve the value of your funds, no matter what Wall Street or the Federal Reserve does.

Notes:
1. https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/11/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
2. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-thursdays-u-s-cpi-report-might-kill-stock-markets-hope-of-inflation-melting-away-11673449025
3. https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/markets-may-be-underestimating-threat-high-inflation-blackrock-warns
4. https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/markets-may-be-underestimating-threat-high-inflation-blackrock-warns
5. https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/01/08/this-may-be-the-longest-bear-market-in-history/

• Record losses were recorded across stocks, bonds, real estate and crypto
• Federal Reserve policy sent assets plummeting to their true value
• Investors turn to gold, which is poised to enter a bull market

Epic Losses Across Asset Classes

A Financial Times report found that a traditional portfolio consisting of 60% stocks and 40% bonds will have seen its worst performance since 1932. More than $12 trillion in value was erased from the US stock market last year. In other words, it hasn’t looked this bad since the Great Depression. Plummeting stocks were joined by bonds, crypto and real estate. The ‘everything bubble’ has burst and investors are scrambling to adapt.

The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to their highest levels since 2007. They stoked mammoth swings across global markets and a steep selloff in assets from stocks and bonds to cryptocurrencies. The Fed’s aggressive interest rate hikes have stopped the flow of ‘free money’ that propped up asset prices. They are now sinking to their true value.

Sound Planning Groups’s CEO said, “I’m calling it the Federal Reserve bubble. I believe that there is a bubble in the stock market, there’s a bubble in the bond market here today. We’ve got a real estate bubble, and that’s also hurting corporations as we look at how they are no longer able to borrow at such low-interest rates.”¹

The once booming tech sector led the securities nosedive. A handful of tech stocks were responsible for almost a quarter of the market’s total decline. Giants such as Netflix, Meta, Zoom, Spotify and Tesla saw their share prices falling in the range of 51% and 70%, according to Yahoo Finance. Formerly bedrock stocks like Microsoft are now seen as “risk assets.”

The impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes is beginning to ripple through the real estate market. Rising mortgage rates are crushing demand. The Federal Housing Finance Agency shows that U.S. house prices were stagnant through September and October.

Crypto was once called Gold 2.0 because of its supposed resilience to market volatility. The total crypto market cap fell from $2.25 trillion to $798 billion throughout the year. That represents a drop of 64.5%, and crypto billionaires recorded huge losses.²

Money managers say they are positioning for an environment that bears little resemblance to the one to which many grew accustomed after the last financial crisis. The era of ultralow bond yields, mild inflation and accommodative Fed policy has ended.

There is a belief that we are entering another ‘lost decade’. The term “Lost Decade for Stocks” refers to the ten-year period from 12/31/1999 through 12/31/2009, when the S&P 500 generated an annualized total return of -0.9% over the period. This was only the second time that the market had a negative total return over a decade period. The other period was the Great Depression decade of the 1930s.

Gold Alone Is Set for a Bull Market

In a climate that is prioritizing wealth preservation over profit, traders are turning to gold. Gold prices have been on an incline since November. Analysts think we are entering the ‘Goldilocks’ zone for gold. They theorize that the Fed will stop raising interest rates as inflation plateaus and recession concerns increase. Flattened interest rates will result in less appealing Treasuries and a weaker dollar. Investors will return to gold to shield their wealth in the face of continued inflation.

Eric Strand is the portfolio manager and creator of the European-listed AuAG ESG Gold Mining exchange-traded fund. He said, “We anticipate a new all-time high for gold during 2023 and the start of a new secular bull market when the price goes over $2,100 per ounce.”³

Investors are facing the fallout of the bursting everything bubble. Our Gold IRA can shield your wealth as this new economy takes shape. Contact us today to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/stock-market-kicks-off-2023-with-start-of-lost-decade-expert-warns
2. https://cointelegraph.com/news/everything-bubble-bursts-worst-year-for-us-stocks-and-bonds-since-1932
3. https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-12-19/Gold-will-explode-higher-in-2023-but-it-s-the-miners-investors-should-pay-attention-to-ESGO-s-Eric-Strand.html

• Gold hit record highs in 2022, and rebounded strongly after a mid-year dip
• Gold outperformed almost every other asset class in 2022
• Several factors are aligned for gold to reach new record prices in 2023

Gold in 2022

Gold had a remarkable 2022. Bullion soared 16% between the end of January 2022 and the beginning of March. It traded above $2,070 per ounce for the first time. Investors flocked to gold as safe haven when Russia invaded Ukraine. After interest rate hikes caused a dip, gold rebounded towards the $1,800 level. Since the beginning of November, gold prices are up almost 13%. Analysts predict the surge to continue into 2023.¹

The Fed’s fight against inflation put downward pressure on gold prices. They aggressively raised interest rates to shrink the economy. Higher interest rates saw investors move away from gold and toward interest bearing securities. Also, the U.S. dollar climbed toward its 20-year high. Gold prices are inversely related to the dollar. When the dollar goes up, the price of gold goes down.

At $1,800 in December, gold was a winner compared to other markets. Stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, real estate, and most other asset classes suffered significant losses in 2022. Gold’s 2022 performance in the face of a strong dollar and high interest rates is a testimony to its strength.

Gold in 2023

Gold is primed to continue its leading role due to several factors, including:

Inflation has been at record levels for almost a year. It will continue to persist for the foreseeable future. Gold is traditional store of value in the face of inflation. As long as inflation stays elevated, the upward price pressure will continue.

Interest rates are predicted to plateau in 2023. Investors believe the Fed will hit the brakes on interest rate hikes as a recession settles in. Gold will become more attractive compared to other interest-bearing investments.

Supply is not keeping up with international demand. Russia was the world’s third leading gold supplier. With sanctions still in effect, scarcity is increasing. In addition, investment in new gold sources has not kept pace with demand.

Dedollarization is seeing non-Western countries move away from using the US dollar as a reserve currency. Sanctions and a global political realignment are causing countries to choose gold for economic and security reasons.

China is relenting on their strict covid restrictions. China is the world’s top consumer of gold. As the restrictions loosen, their demand will increase.

Central banks purchased a record 399 tons of gold for about $20 billion in Q3 2022. Over the first nine months of 2022, total official sector purchases were at the 673-ton level, the highest since 1967. The robust demand for gold from central banks is likely to continue in 2023 according to the World Gold Council.²

Overall, gold is primed to have a banner year in 2023. Analysts say gold can hit the $2,000 level. Saxo Bank said, that with the right conditions, gold will break $3,000 an ounce next year. How high gold will go depends on the Fed’s actions on interest rates.

In the best-case price scenario, gold could even surpass its all-time high if stagflation occurs and the Fed reduces its tightening. This would likely force investors to steer clear of bonds, equities, and currencies altogether, just like in the 1970s. Now is an opportune time to get it into gold for the new year. Contact us today to learn how you can take advantage of the price upswing with our Gold IRA.

Notes:
1. https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-could-continue-its-run-in-2023-200633836
2. https://www.investing.com/analysis/gold-could-continue-its-run-in-2023-200633836