• Goldman Sachs predicts stocks are facing a ‘lost decade’ of stock returns.
• The forecast is based on stock overvaluation and market concentration.
• As stocks face a decade of decline, gold is projected to rise to $7,000 an ounce in that same time – offering a safe haven for retirement funds.

A Decade of Poor Returns

The stock market’s high-flying days could be coming back down to earth, and investors may need a new plan. Goldman Sachs is warning that the next 10 years would be a “lost decade” for stocks. Facing potential returns of just 1%, Americans can look towards to physical precious metals to fortify their retirement funds.

End of the Bull Run?

For the past 10 years, the S&P 500 returned an annual average of 12.9%. And the market continues to hit new heights. As of October 30, the DJIA was at 42,233.051. Up by approximately 137% over the past 10 years.¹

Yet, Goldman Sachs said stocks could soon be facing a “lost decade.” According to their research, stocks would produce a nominal return of 3% per year. And a real, inflation adjusted return of just 1%. Those returns would be half of the average annualized return between 1928 and 2024. And in less favorable conditions, returns could potentially dip as low as -1%.²

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Reasons for a Slowdown

Goldman analyzed several data sets to reach their conclusion.

Goldman compared today’s stock market to the last ‘Roaring 20s’ market 100 years ago. Today’s market is more overvalued than at almost any other time in U.S. history. The ratio of the stock market’s total market capitalization to GDP is more than five times higher today than a century ago. This ratio is known as the Warren Buffet indicator. That’s because Buffet considers it the best single measure of market valuation.

Then there is the CAPE value. The CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) ratio measures a stock’s price relative to its average earnings over the past 10 years. It helps investors gauge if the market is over- or undervalued. The current CAPE value is 38. That ranks in the 97th percentile going back to 1930.⁴

What analysts found most unprecedented was the current degree of concentration in the market. It is at its highest levels since the early 1930s. The top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 now account for approximately 33% of the index’s market value. That surpasses the 27% share reached at the peak of the tech bubble in 2000. ⁵

Heavy concentration weighs on returns. When a few stocks hold most of the wealth, any loss can sharply impact the market’s overall value. Market leaders today may not retain that position in a decade. “It is extremely difficult for any firm to maintain high levels of sales growth and profit margins over a sustained period of time,” Goldman analysts wrote.⁶

Other investment banks, including JPMorgan, GMO and Apollo Global Management, echoed Goldman. Apollo said the S&P 500 could see average annualized returns below 3% within the next three years.

GMO pointed to six ‘lost decades’ going back to 1900. During these times, a 60/40 stocks/bonds portfolio produced returns in the low single digits. Some failed to outpace inflation altogether. What all six periods had in common – stocks were trading at greatly overvalued prices.

The Counter Argument

Dr. Ed Yardeni is a prominent economist and financial market strategist. He offers up a different vision of the next decade. He sees a booming 2020s. In which, the S&P 500 would produce a total return of 11% annualized. He says a lost decade of stocks won’t occur if earnings and dividends continue to grow.

Yardeni dismisses overconcentration. Since tech permeates everything, he says all companies can be thought of technology companies now. And that technology will fuel higher productivity and lower costs. In turn, all companies can earn higher profit margins avoid the ‘lost decade.’

Conclusion

Yardeni’s forecast is based on unrealized potential of technology to produce profits. For him, high earnings would justify high valuations. But he operates on one hopeful assumption – that the leaders will still be leading.

However, “Hope is not a strategy.” Goldman’s data-driven forecast considers historical market trends and valuations, which may offer a more realistic assessment of the future. In contrast to falling stocks, gold is projected to reach $7,000 per ounce over the next decade.7 A potential increase of 203.82% from today’s price of $2,304. Now may be the time to protect your retirement funds against a potential “lost decade” by diversifying into physical gold. Contact American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn how a Gold IRA could help preserve and potentially grow your wealth.

Notes:
1. https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones-100-year-historical-chart
2. https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/is-there-a-lost-decade-ahead-for-stocks-3683339
3. https://www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/wall-street-is-worried-stocks-might-be-on-the-cusp-of-a-lost-decade-1b3e2512
4. https://www.barrons.com/articles/goldman-sachs-stock-market-lost-decade-9c9fd595
5. https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor-hub/article/top-sp-500-stocks-by-weight/
6. https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/is-the-sp-too-concentrated
7. https://www.axi.com/int/blog/education/commodities/gold-price-forecasts

• The BRICS+ Summit is meeting in Russia, focused on accelerating de-dollarization in a multi-polar world.
• They are proposing new payments systems, banks, and a potentially gold-backed currency.
• Held in a Gold IRA, physical precious metals can safeguard your retirement funds from the BRICS+ new world order.

BRICS+ Summit Accelerates De-Dollarization

This week, the BRICS Summit in Russia set into motion a shift that could forever alter the global economy. Leaders from 24 countries and delegations from 32 nations gathered to challenge the long-standing dominance of the U.S. dollar. Representing over 40% of the world’s population, this powerful Western counterweight is building a new world order. An order where the stocks and bonds in your retirement portfolio may rapidly lose their value. To defend against this tectonic shift, analysts recommend safeguarding your funds with physical gold.

BRICS+ Goals

BRICS+ was originally comprised of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. They had long sought to challenge the economic dominance of the U.S. With this summit, they aim to reduce reliance on the dollar in international trade and finance. They are proposing new payment systems and the creation of a BRICS digital currency.

Possible Gold-Backed Currency

One of the most talked-about possibilities to emerge from this summit was the introduction of a new BRICS+ currency. Collectively, BRICS+ nations hold over 20% of the world’s gold reserves. Of which, Russia controls 8.1% and China closely follows. With these significant reserves, speculation has grown about a gold-backed currency system. A system that could rival the U.S. dollar. Rumors suggest that the currency is tentatively called the “Unit.” It would be pegged 40% to the value of gold and 60% to a basket of BRICS national currencies.¹

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The reality of de-dollarization is slowly but surely coming into focus.

This new “apolitical currency” could appeal to nations wary of the weaponized U.S. dollar. In an increasingly multipolar world, the BRICS see gold as a stable, universally recognized asset. Central banks from BRICS nations continue to accumulate gold at near-record levels. This buying spree suggests that a gold-backed currency is growing closer to a reality.

Russian State Duma Speaker Vyachaslav Volodin underscored these intentions. He said, “Today, BRICS unites 10 countries and 45% of the world’s population. More than thirty states are showing interest in participating in it… The time of Washington and Brussels hegemony is passing.” ³

The infrastructure for this economic shift is already being built. BRICS+ are completing an alternative to the Western-backed SWIFT payment system that allows international bank transactions. The New BRICS Development Bank is set begin as well. It would offer payments in local currencies to invest in the private sector of the member state economies.⁴

Impact on Gold Prices

Gold has been having a banner year. It has hit historic demand from global conflict, rate cuts, and political uncertainty. Yet the discussion of a gold-backed BRICS currency is adding powerful momentum to the upward swing.
Gold is often seen as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty. Central bank purchases of gold have significantly outpaced purchases of U.S. Treasuries over the last decade. The move away from the dollar has been accelerated by concerns about U.S. debt and the weaponization of the dollar. As BRICS+ countries continue to accumulate gold, this trend seems poised to continue, boosting the price of gold further.

The Shift Toward a New World Order

The BRICS+ summit in Russia may not immediately overthrow the existing global financial architecture. But it has laid the groundwork for significant shifts. Plans for de-dollarization, gold-backed currencies, and alternative payment systems indicate that the BRICS nations are serious about reducing their reliance on the dollar. The momentum is building, and the foundation for a new world order is being laid.

Conclusion

As BRICS expands and more nations express interest in joining, the group’s influence is growing. While the U.S. dollar still dominates global trade, the steady accumulation of gold and the pursuit of financial independence by BRICS nations suggest that the current system is not as unshakeable as it once seemed. De-dollarization is no longer a distant prospect—it’s becoming an economic reality. Analysts suggest turning to physical gold to protect portfolio value from the consequences of de-dollarization. Held in a Gold IRA, physical precious metals can safeguard your retirement funds from the new world order. Contact us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-10-22/global-monetary-reset-coming-gold-get-revalued-150k-brics-summit-trigger
2. https://www.ccn.com/news/business/brics-summit-currency-talks-gold-silver-soar/
3. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/brics-new-world-order/
4. https://tvbrics.com/en/news/brics-bank-to-finance-its-members-projects-in-local-currencies/?sphrase_id=7080

• Gold is projected to continue its upward trajectory into 2025, potentially breaking $3,000
• The price is driven by monetary policy, central bank purchasing, BRICS+ de-dollarization
• Now is the time to protect your portfolio with physical precious metals before the price climbs even higher

Gold Prices Continue to Rise

Gold prices are continuing their ascent to all-time highs. The rise is being supercharged by growing uncertainty across a changing economic landscape. Investors are already taking profits amid gold’s upward momentum. But banks such as Goldman Sachs suggest gold’s rise will continue well into 2025 – breaking new records along the way.

Interest Rate Volatility and Gold’s Role

One of the key drivers of gold’s rise has been fluctuating expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts. Initially, there was speculation about a significant 50 basis point rate cut in the near future. However, stronger-than-expected job reports and higher-than-anticipated inflation have dampened these hopes. Despite this, more rate cuts are expected, and historically, the price of gold tends to rise by about 6% within the first six months of an easing cycle.¹

This correlation between lower interest rates and higher gold prices is well documented. Safe haven gold becomes more attractive compared to other interest-bearing assets.

Divergence in Global Investment

North American investors have been steadily increasing their gold purchases. Though they are still catching up to the rest of the world. According to the World Gold Council, North Americans bought $1.36 billion worth of gold last month, compared to $1.4 billion in global inflows. Western investment is rising. But there’s still untapped potential to drive prices even higher.²

Analysts are asking whether it’s too late for Western investors to catch up. Particularly as some Western banks have been short-selling gold. Comparisons are being made to the silver squeeze of 1980. Some are predicting that gold could face a similar short squeeze. That would potentially lead to massive buybacks and unprecedented price increases.

Central Bank Demand and the BRICS+ Factor

Central banks have been significant buyers of gold. Many are turning to the precious metal as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty and financial instability. Officially, China has not purchased gold in the last five months. But market observers speculate that central banks, including Russia’s, may be buying in secret. The World Gold Council estimated that 67% of central bank gold purchases in the second quarter went unreported. Russia, for example, is expected to spend $535 million over the next three years to replenish its precious metals reserves.³

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The BRICS+ nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and others) are hoarding gold at an unprecedented rate. These nations represent over 40% of the global population. They are using gold to diversify their reserves and to pursue de-dollarization. At the upcoming BRICS+ Summit in Kazan, Russia, leaders are expected to discuss further steps to counter the Western-dominated financial system. The draining of gold from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) vaults by Eastern nations is seen as a sign of resistance to the West.

A New Global Financial System on the Horizon?

At a recent panel discussion hosted by the LBMA, experts agreed that gold’s role as a reserve asset in global foreign reserves will continue to grow. Central banks from countries like Czechia, Mongolia, and Mexico have all announced plans to increase their gold holdings. They see it as a vital diversifier and hedge against falling interest rates and geopolitical risks.
The discussion also highlighted the growing appeal of gold as a global currency. As nations seek alternatives to the U.S. dollar, gold is becoming increasingly attractive for international trade. They see the world becoming multi-polar – which will support gold demand.

Geopolitical relationships are shifting. Nations fear sanctions or need to find ways to trade with sanctioned countries. Currently, the gold market is too small to meet this need for the global economy. Nevertheless, the trend suggests increased demand, which could lead to higher prices. With China reportedly preparing to launch a gold-backed yuan and Russia trading in currencies pegged to gold, we may be witnessing the birth of a new global financial system centered around gold.

Gold Price Predictions

As of now, gold is trading around $2,640 per ounce, nearing its all-time high of $2,685. Goldman Sachs predicts that gold could continue to hit all-time highs by the end of 2024, potentially reaching the $3,000 mark by 2025. That would represent a 12.5% return on investment from the current price level.⁵

Goldman Sachs repeated their bullish stance. They stated, “We reiterate our long gold recommendation due to the gradual boost from lower global interest rates, structurally higher central bank demand, and gold’s hedging benefits against geopolitical, financial, and recessionary risks.”⁶

Conclusion

The global economic landscape is shifting. Lowering interest rates, increasing safe haven demand, and accelerating global de-dollarization is likely to keep gold on an upward trajectory. Prices are predicted to reach all-time highs in 2025. Owning physical precious metals, particularly in a tax-advantaged Gold IRA, can secure and potentially grow the value of your retirement savings. Contact us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes
1. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-10-11/gold-defies-odds-yet-again
2. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-10-11/gold-defies-odds-yet-again
3. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-10-11/gold-defies-odds-yet-again
4. https://assets.finbold.com/uploads/2024/10/image-70.png
5. https://watcher.guru/news/goldman-sachs-revises-gold-price-prediction-for-2025
6. https://watcher.guru/news/goldman-sachs-revises-gold-price-prediction-for-2025