• Gold broke another all-time high, hitting $2,571 an ounce
• Demand is likely to increase due to Fed rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and geopolitical uncertainty
• Buying gold now in a tax advantaged Gold IRA can lead to long-term gains

Gold Breaks New All-Time-High

Gold has been on an impressive run since the end of 2022, and it shows no signs of slowing down. On August 20th, gold reached yet another record high. Currently, gold is outperforming stocks, bonds, and even Bitcoin. Now entering its 25th year of a bull market, analysts believe that gold’s upward trend is far from over. The continuing surge is driven by a mix of global demand and economic factors.¹

For the first time ever, the value of a single gold bar has crossed the $1 million mark. Of course, that single gold bar is the 400 troy ounce London Good Delivery bar. The bar is the standard unit of trade in major international gold markets. The price of gold is up more than 20% this year, trading at a record high above $2,500 an ounce, with a peak of $2,571.²

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Gold Demand Sources

The demand for gold is global, but the reasons for this surge vary. In India, there’s a significant increase in demand due to traditional holiday buying and a recent cut in import duties. The chief executive of the London Bullion Market Association said, “It’s really a question of how quickly they can get metal into the country, in terms of the number of flights.”⁴

De-dollarization

Meanwhile, demand also increased on an accelerating de-dollarization movement. The BRICS+ nations are increasing their gold reserves as they reduce their dollar holdings. They are also developing a gold-backed currency to challenge dollar supremacy. Central banks, especially the People’s Bank of China, continue to make record gold purchases. Soaring prices over the past two years have largely been fueled by China.

Geopolitics and Interest Rates

Americans are also contributing to demand. Dangerous geopolitical conflicts and the upcoming presidential election are increasing the desire for financial stability. Gold is considered a safe-haven asset, retaining its value during times of uncertainty. John Reade, chief market strategist at the World Gold Council, commented. He said, “What we have seen is investors and speculators in the West starting to return to the gold market. This has been fast money that has been driving gold.”⁵

Interest rates are also playing a crucial role in the gold market. Western investors largely sat on the sidelines during gold’s 20-month rally. They are now returning with the prospect of interest rate cuts. Institutional investors and bullish hedge funds are boosting gold prices. As are opaque purchases by family offices who are concerned about a devalued dollar.

Investors are betting that further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve will push gold prices even higher. Gold tends to rise when interest rates go down. Lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. This makes it more attractive to investors. In addition, gold is internationally denominated in dollars. So, when the dollar goes down, gold costs more.

National Debt

However, safe haven demand isn’t just being driven by geopolitics and monetary policy. The U.S. national debt is now at $35 trillion and growing. It is eroding confidence in the dollar’s value and the creditworthiness of the United States. Investors are looking for security beyond once bedrock-solid T-bills.

Future Forecasts

Looking ahead, the gold rally appears far from over. Commerzbank expects gold prices to consolidate within the $2,500 range over the next few months. But they don’t expect them to stay static. “We expect the gold price to continue rising in the first half of 2025 due to further Fed interest rate cuts, a U.S. inflation rate that remains above target, and a weaker U.S. dollar,” said the bank’s precious metals analysts. The head of commodities at Citi Research believes that gold could reach $3,000 an ounce by mid-2025.⁶

Conclusion

The bottom line is that gold’s trend remains bullish as we move into September 2024. Even though aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines, the quarter-of-a-century trend in gold suggests that any dip could be a chance to add more gold to a diversified portfolio. Since 1999, buying every dip in gold has proven to be a strategy that yields positive returns. Those returns are amplified in a tax-advantaged Gold IRA. To learn more about how you can benefit from gold’s ascent, contact us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes
1. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4715944-gld-gold-shows-no-sign-of-slowing-its-ascent
2. https://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/24/08/40457722/gold-is-getting-its-moment-in-the-sun-and-experts-say-the-record-high-prices-could-
3. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-steady-near-record-high-investors-seek-more-fed-cues-2024-08-20/
4. https://www.ft.com/content/03ed761e-ccf9-4494-b1f8-1cab8313a07f
5. https://www.ft.com/content/03ed761e-ccf9-4494-b1f8-1cab8313a07f
6. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-08-20/commerzbank-sees-gold-prices-consolidating-around-2500-year-end

• Gold prices have been reaching all-time-highs primarily due to purchases from BRICS+ central banks.
• In October, the BRICS+ de-dollarization agenda expands as they plan to announce information regarding the launch of their own gold-backed currency.
• Owning physical precious metals in a Gold IRA can not only protect the value of your savings over the long term, but it could also potentially grow them.

BRICS+ and the Rise of Gold

Gold’s surge to a record high of $2,480 on July 17th underscores its enduring status as a safe haven amid escalating global tensions and economic uncertainty. But the primary driver of demand isn’t coming from the investment sector. Instead, this rise is largely driven by the BRICS+ alliance. Central banks from BRICS+ nations have been on an unprecedented gold buying spree in their pursuit of de-dollarization. This October, they may be announcing the launch of a new currency to rival the dollar – setting off a global shift that could have a significant impact on the US economy and your savings.

Who Are the BRICS+?

The BRICS+ alliance was originally an economic consortium of five major emerging economies—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. It has been steadily increasing its numbers and influence on the global stage. Founded in 2006, the group’s primary objective is to counterbalance Western-dominated financial and political institutions. With a combined population of over 3 billion people and some of the world’s largest and fastest-growing economies, BRICS represents a significant bloc in international affairs.

BRICS+ and Gold

As retail investment in gold declined, BRICS+ purchasing has been pushing the price of gold to new levels. The World Gold Council reported that BRICS+ has been the largest buyers of gold since 2022.

Data from the World Gold Council show the largest buyer was the People’s Bank of China. Except for a pause this spring, China has been expanding its gold reserves every single month since October ’22. Russia is also aggressively bulking up its gold reserves. Gold now represents 29% of their total reserves, up from 11% just six years ago.¹

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Gold and the Weaponized Dollar

Vahan Roth is executive director at Swissgrams AG. His latest analysis posits that gold’s rise is a reaction to the weaponization of the U.S. dollar.

“The world reserve currency…can and will be used as an offensive weapon in geopolitical conflicts,” he wrote. “That same weapon that has been wielded against Russia could be deployed against any other adversary.”³

In response, the BRICS+ alliance is pushing back against the U.S. They want to be able to defend against a weaponized dollar by shifting reserves to gold.

BRICS+ Currency

The BRICS+ path to de-dollarization doesn’t stop with protecting their reserves with gold. They are making significant strides in launching a new currency. The currency would be backed by gold and act as a counter to the U.S. dollar. The nine-member alliance is planning a big announcement about the currency at its October summit.

Some financial experts believe that a gold-backed currency could spell the “beginning of the end” for the US dollar. Developing countries could distance themselves from the dollar, and US influence, by embracing the currency for reserves and cross-border transactions. ⁴

A gold-backed currency would provide a stable alternative. It could reduce the reliance of BRICS+ countries on the U.S. dollar and protect their economies from dollar fluctuations.

The rise of a competing currency is coming at a time when faith is being lost in the greenback. A gold-backed currency would provide a tangible basis for value and stability. In contrast, the U.S. dollar, like most modern currencies, is a fiat currency, meaning it is not backed by any physical commodity. The U.S.’s growing national debt recently reached $34.4 trillion. Concerns are rising about the long-term stability of the dollar. These concerns are among the reasons the BRICS+ are seeking more secure alternatives.

A New Way to Pay

The BRICS+ are already creating a system to rival the SWIFT payment system. The SWIFT payments system enables financial transactions between banks and other financial institutions. Russia was excluded from the SWIFT system after it invaded Ukraine. This effectively isolated Russian financial institutions from global markets. Russia’s exclusion reinforced the need for a financial system outside of Western control.

“The financial agenda of BRICS has a main initiative for building a new economic reality…Creating our own financial messaging system for the BRICS countries, similar to SWIFT,” Alexander Babakov, Deputy Chairman of the Russian State Duma, said.⁵

Implications

The shift away from U.S. dollar dominance erodes America’s default higher standing in the world economy. Destabilizing this position could hurt foreign exchange rates and international lending practices. Reduced demand for dollars could lead to a decline in the currency’s value. The devalued dollar can lead to hyper-inflation, leading to higher prices for imported goods and everyday purchases. In addition, the shift could expose and worsen existing vulnerabilities in the U.S. banking sector, heralding a new crisis.

Conclusion

We are moving to a multipolar financial world with multiple currencies and monetary systems. The era of U.S. dominance looks to be ending. For the BRICS+ nations, these initiatives are not just about economic pragmatism; they are also about asserting greater influence on the global stage. Consequently, the falling value of the dollar would severely impact the worth of dollar-denominated investments like stocks and bonds. In comparison, the price of gold is likely to increase as it used to back a growing currency. That’s why owning physical precious metals in a Gold IRA can not only protect the value of your savings over the long term, but it could also potentially grow them. To learn more, contact American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-07-24/brics-driving-new-gold-rush-china-russia-gold-backed-currency-would-mark
2. https://www.centarzlata.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/BRICS-zlato-graf.jpg
3. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-07-24/brics-driving-new-gold-rush-china-russia-gold-backed-currency-would-mark
4. https://watcher.guru/news/brics-gold-backed-currency-is-beginning-of-the-end-for-us-dollar
5. https://www.tekedia.com/brics-announces-plan-to-ditch-swift-create-alternative-financial-system/

 

• Financial gurus are going long on gold, expecting its upward trajectory to continue
• Central bank buying, recession, record debt, and renewed Western investment all fuel the rise in gold prices
• Now may be the opportune time to add physical precious metals to your portfolio in a Gold IRA before prices rise again

Gold Predicted to Rise Even Further

As global financial markets face heightened volatility and uncertainty, many investors are turning to gold as a safe haven asset. Prominent figures like Robert Kiyosaki and experienced traders from “The Big Short” fame have made bold predictions about the future of gold, citing various economic factors that could drive its value significantly higher.

Kiyosaki Warns of a Crash

“Rich Dad Poor Dad” author Robert Kiyosaki has warned of both a massive market crash and a subsequent money-making opportunity. He recently stated, “Technical charts indicate the biggest crash in history coming. Prices of real estate, stocks, bonds, gold, silver, & bitcoin crash.” Kiyosaki suggests that a market crash could be devastating, considering the extensive exposure of investors. For comparison, Americans lost about $16 trillion in net worth during the financial crisis of the late 2000s.¹

Kiyosaki believes that after the crash, there will be an excellent time to buy assets at bargain prices. He forecasts a significant bull market cycle benefiting gold, silver, and bitcoin, driven by a lack of confidence in US currency. The country’s debt could destroy faith in the currency, drastically devaluing it.

Kiyosaki made bold price predictions for after the crash: “Gold possibly $15,000 an ounce, silver possibly $110.00 an ounce, and bitcoin easily to $10 million per coin,” he wrote. Given that gold currently trades at $2,424 per ounce, silver at $29 an ounce, and bitcoin around $66,200 per coin, this forecast implies a 519% upside in gold, a 279% upside in silver, and a staggering 15,000% upside in bitcoin.²

“Big Short” Traders Back Gold

Other traders, such as “The Big Short” investors Danny Moses, Vincent Daniel, and Porter Collins, are also going long on gold. Known for their successful bet against the housing market ahead of the 2008 crisis, these traders have expressed concern that Americans do not hold enough gold in their portfolios. Collins pointed to massive central bank buying and the US budget deficit as reasons to buy gold, leaning heavily on the dollar debasement thesis. This thesis argues that the value of the US dollar declines over time due to excessive money printing and inflation, eroding purchasing power.

“If you just think about that one dollar in your wallet, tomorrow it’s worth less,” Collins added. “I think that in … one, two, three, five, 10 years, you’re going to make a lot more money in gold than you will in U.S. Treasurys, and I think that’s just not changing.”³

Gold’s Performance

Gold has been a better investment than stocks, bonds, or real estate this year, according to Morningstar. Since January 1, gold has provided a 14% return compared to 12% for the S&P 500 index of large U.S. stocks and 2% for the S&P 600 index of small U.S. stocks. Meanwhile, the iShares Core U.S. Aggregate Bond index fund is down 1%, and real estate investment trusts (REITs) have lost nearly 5%.⁴

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However, the real, inflation-adjusted price of gold is almost twice the average since it began floating freely in 1975. It is close to the peak seen during 2011. Since the dollar has also been rising, gold is even higher in other currencies. In both Japanese yen and British pounds, today’s gold price is about 45% higher than the peaks seen back then, even when adjusted for inflation. ⁶

Interestingly, U.S. investors have mostly missed this latest gold boom. Despite gold proving a better investment than 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds for over 30 years. Treasuries are actually losing their status as the unquestioned “go-to” safe asset. Questions about US creditworthiness and a growing de-dollarization movement are eroding confidence in the government bonds.

U.S. investors have been net sellers of exchange-traded bullion funds so far this year, totaling $4 billion according to the World Gold Council. Analysts attribute this to investors not wanting to miss out on a booming stock market.⁷

Gold Drivers

Central banks continue to be the leading buyers of gold. When Western investors catch up, analysts foresee another significant leap in gold prices. Despite breaking all-time highs, gold is considered underpriced for several reasons. The economic landscape has shifted significantly in favor of gold, with the value of gold compared to the dollar increasing more than the markets expected since 1980 or 2011. The impact of returning Western interest could be substantial. From 2005-2011, flows into GLD (the largest gold-backed ETF) added approximately 38.1 million ounces, driving the metal price from $535 to over $1,800, more than a 300% increase.⁸

A recession, which many indicators suggest is inevitable, would cause demand for gold to surge. Evidence of a weaker economy seems to be ignored by investors looking to ride the stock market as high as the bubble will go. Some economists argue that massive government spending is the only thing propping up the economy, the same spending that jeopardizes the country’s creditworthiness and raises the risk of more inflation.

According to certain analysts, gold is in the middle of a multi-year advance. Geopolitical conflict, stock overvaluation, and volatile U.S. elections all contribute to safe haven demand for gold.

Conclusion

The consensus among numerous sources is clear: gold’s upward trajectory is likely to continue for years to come. Continued central bank buying, fears of dollar devaluation, and a hedge against stock volatility and recession are just some of the factors driving this trend. Another surge in gold prices is expected when Western investors, currently caught in the stock market bubble, match the enthusiasm of their non-Western counterparts. Now may be the opportune time to add physical precious metals to your portfolio in a Gold IRA before prices rise again. Contact American Hartford Gold at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://moneywise.com/investing/investing/robert-kiyosaki-predicts-up-to-15000-upside-in-these-3-assets-foresees-long-term-bull-market-cycle
2. https://moneywise.com/investing/investing/robert-kiyosaki-predicts-up-to-15000-upside-in-these-3-assets-foresees-long-term-bull-market-cycle
3. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/27/big-short-traders-are-very-long-gold-say-moses-collins-and-daniel.html
4. https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240524255/yikes-golds-2400-price-tag-is-even-higher-than-you-think
5. https://www.kitco.com/opinion/2024-07-26/us-dollar-decline-and-fall
6. https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240524255/yikes-golds-2400-price-tag-is-even-higher-than-you-think
7. https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240524255/yikes-golds-2400-price-tag-is-even-higher-than-you-think
8. https://www.kitco.com/opinion/2024-07-26/us-dollar-decline-and-fall

• As traders grow optimistic for rate cuts, economists are warning investors to “be careful what they wish for”
• Historically, steep rate cuts occur only after the economy has taken a serious downturn
• Gold is positioned to rise in the case of recession and interest rate cuts

Misplaced Optimism for Rate Cuts

The Federal Reserve is marking a year since pausing rate hikes at 5.25% to 5.5%. As the Fed awaits signs of sustained cooling inflation, investors are growing optimistic for cuts. But some analysts are warning: be careful what you wish for. Historically, rate cuts come at the cost of economic downturn.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, investors are expecting one or two cuts to come in 2024. Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid noted that this would the eighth time that traders bet on aggressive rate cuts – cuts that never materialized. Traders may again be jumping the gun betting on large interest rate cuts between now and the end of the year. They are pricing in 175 basis points cuts over the next 18 months. ¹

Going from being on hold for more than a year to such drastic cuts means something has gone terribly wrong with the economy. With one exception, the Fed has only cut that deeply when the country was in the throes of recession. Only in the wake of the dot-com bubble deflating in early 2001 and the onset of the financial crisis in September 2007 did the Fed deliver half-point reductions. ²
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George Goncalves is the head of US macro strategy at MUFG. He expects the economy to weaken by September, which could lead the Fed to take early action.

“This idea of slow and steady cuts makes no sense given how data is shaping up,” Goncalves said. “The longer you wait, the more you may need to do later.”⁴

Federal Chair Powell has signaled an intention to cut rates. Yet, the Fed does not want to look like they are panicking though. They point to continued growth and consumer spending to “remove the urgency” to act. Economists at LH Meyer, a policy analysis firm, said the current state of the economy does not justify rapid easing. Instead, officials are more likely to do small cuts at each Fed meeting.

Be Careful What You Wish For

“Black swan” investor Mark Spitznagel is urging caution. His firm, Universa Investments, is known for positioning itself to gain on unpredictable black swan events. The fund pulled a 4,144% return on its investments during the pandemic stock crash. He shares the belief that the Fed is only likely to cut rates when the economy is slammed with recession and the market is falling.

“Be careful what you wish for,” Spitznagel said. “People think it’s a good thing the Federal Reserve is dovish, and they’re going to cut interest rates … but they’re going to cut interest rates when it’s clear the economy is turning into a recession, and they will be cutting interest rates in a panicked fashion when this market is crashing.”⁵

The current higher-for-longer rates still threaten to spark a downturn. Spitznagel said today’s markets are a “mega-tinderbox-time bomb.” The potential for a crash is large because of the massive debt acquired when interest rates were ultra-low. He said the yearslong rally in the stock market amounted to the “greatest bubble in human history.” The impact of the bubble bursting would be extreme because the government’s $34 trillion debt would make it harder for them to intervene. ⁶

Conclusion

As traders, once again, get excited for significant interest cuts, analysts are advising caution. While a rate cut can be beneficial, it often signals deeper issues that could lead to significant market declines and earnings reductions. Historically, rate cuts occur after the country has entered recession.
Gold is positioned to benefit from both cases. Gold prices go up when interest rates are cut because lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. And if cuts are taking place in response to recession, owning gold is advantageous because it retains its value and acts as a hedge against economic uncertainty. A Gold IRA can protect your portfolio from the impact of interest rates for the long term. Call us today to learn more at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/traders-may-be-jumping-the-gun-once-again-by-betting-on-aggressive-fed-rate-cuts/ar-BB1qP6Dv
2. https://fortune.com/2024/07/28/fed-rate-outlook-super-sized-cut-bet-bond-traders-fomc-meeting-jerome-powell/
3. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240609-us-fed-likely-to-remain-on-pause-and-pare-back-rate-cut-expectations
4. https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240609-us-fed-likely-to-remain-on-pause-and-pare-back-rate-cut-expectations
5. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/fed-rate-cuts-stock-market-crash-recession-outlook-economy-investing-2024-4
6. https://www.benzinga.com/markets/equities/24/07/39870083/black-swan-investor-says-greatest-bubble-in-human-history-is-on-the-verge-of-bursting-calls-stoc