• China’s aggressive political and economic policies threaten the U.S. economy.
• Key threats include: the risk of war with Taiwan, China’s role in de-dollarization, and bursting the AI stock bubble.
• Precious metals held in a Gold IRA can offer long term protection from China’s policies.

China’s Aggressive Ambitions

China poses a multi-pronged threat to the U.S. economy and, by extension, your retirement funds. As the world’s second-largest economy, China is projected to surpass the U.S. as the global economic leader between 2030 and 2036. Key threats include: the risk of war with Taiwan, China’s role in the BRICS de-dollarization, and its ability to burst the AI stock bubble by launching cheaper, competitive AI systems. These factors could have profound consequences to your financial future.

The Taiwan Conflict: A Ticking Time Bomb

China has escalated its threats against Taiwan with military drills, cyberattacks, and diplomatic pressure. President Xi Jinping wants to forcefully annex Taiwan by 2030 if unification fails. Analysts warn that Beijing’s assertiveness raises the risk of a wider conflict. With the U.S. being dragged in since it has pledged to defend Taiwan.¹

A war between China and Taiwan would have severe economic consequences for the U.S., potentially causing a 6.7% contraction in GDP if the U.S. intervenes. Even a Chinese blockade of Taiwan could reduce U.S. GDP growth by 3.3% within the first year. These projections far exceed the 2.2% contraction in GDP seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. The global economy could lose $10 trillion. There would be major disruptions to semiconductor supply chains and financial markets.²

China’s Push to Dethrone the U.S. Dollar

China is leading de-dollarization to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and promote the renminbi (RMB).

China’s central bank has developed a digital yuan. It is being piloted domestically and in cross-border trade with countries like Thailand and the UAE. This initiative seeks to set global standards for digital transactions. It also aims to cut reliance on dollar-based systems. And pushes the U.S. to create its own freedom threatening ‘digital dollar’.

China has also launched renminbi-denominated commodities markets, further reducing dollar reliance. The country is leveraging its dominance in critical mineral supply chains to promote RMB use in the clean energy transition.

China is cutting its U.S. Treasury holdings and boosting its gold reserves to protect its economy from possible U.S. sanctions. By March 2024, China’s gold reserves exceeded 2,264 tons, doubling in five years.³

If China abandoned the U.S. dollar, the impact on the U.S. economy could be devastating. Growth could stall, trade would be disrupted, and a sharp decline in the dollar’s value could fuel inflation. A sell-off of U.S. Treasury securities would raise borrowing costs. It could also trigger a financial crisis due to market instability and capital flight.

The dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency would be at risk, severely weakening U.S. global influence. Foreign investment would dry up. The U.S. could lose its dominance in the global financial system. Making it economically and geopolitically vulnerable. While an abrupt shift is unlikely, even a gradual transition could inflict lasting damage.

China’s AI Disruption: Bursting the Tech Bubble?

Chinese AI startup DeepSeek may burst the AI stock bubble, triggering massive market turbulence.

DeepSeek has developed AI models comparable to leading U.S. offerings at a fraction of the cost. The company invested only $5.6 million in its latest AI model, R1, which performs similarly to ChatGPT. This challenges the idea that AI needs huge investments. It may devalue firms that have spent billions on AI research.⁴

The revelation of DeepSeek’s capabilities led to a sharp decline in U.S. stock markets. The Nasdaq Composite plummeted by 3.6%, with the S&P 500 dropping 2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.8%. ⁵

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Major U.S. tech companies and chip manufacturers saw significant drops in their stock prices. Nvidia, a major player in AI chips, saw a nearly 17% drop. This loss wiped out almost $600 billion from its market cap. It was the biggest single-day loss ever in stock market history. Other companies like Broadcom and Microsoft also suffered losses.⁷

DeepSeek’s success shows China’s rapid AI progress despite U.S. chip restrictions. U.S. tech controls may not be as effective as intended. Leaving Investors reassessing AI stock valuations, potentially bursting the bubble.

Protecting Your Wealth with Gold

The risks from China are mounting. Now, more than ever, gold is a critical hedge against China’s plans. Their record gold buying aligns with a global trend among BRICS nations to reduce dollar dependency. Central banks are boosting their gold reserves. They seek to hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks. A seismic shift in the global reserve currency landscape is happening as we speak.

For individuals, the same principle applies. Adding gold to a retirement portfolio, particularly through a Gold IRA, may be the best way to protect assets from currency devaluation and market volatility. Contact American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://media.defense.gov/2023/Apr/24/2003205865/-1/-1/1/07AMONSON%2520&%2520EGLI_FEATURE%2520IWD.PDF
2. https://www.businessinsider.com/taiwan-war-impact-us-economic-growth-first-year-china-chips-2024-1
3. https://tradingeconomics.com/china/gold-reserves
4. https://beebom.com/chatgpt-o1-vs-deepseek-r1-comparison/
5. https://evrimagaci.org/tpg/deepseeks-ai-model-sparks-stock-market-volatility-165435
6. https://www.ft.com/content/e670a4ea-05ad-4419-b72a-7727e8a6d471
7. https://evrimagaci.org/tpg/deepseeks-ai-model-sparks-stock-market-volatility-165435

 

• Surging bond yields jeopardize Trump tax cut extension.
• Key Congressmen want spending cuts to offset the tax cuts as debt fears mount.
• Retirement funds can be shielded by moving into safe haven assets like physical gold and silver held in a Gold IRA.

Tax Cuts Jeopardized

Extending his 2017 tax cuts was a cornerstone of President Trump’s platform. Now a volatile U.S. bond market is challenging the possibility of fulfilling that promise. Rising bond yields reflect investor fears about the federal deficit and interest costs. They could derail plans to keep the tax breaks. And leave Americans facing higher taxes and a more uncertain financial future.

Bond Market Pressures Mount

In the years since the 2017 tax cuts, the U.S. national debt has ballooned to $36 trillion, with annual deficits exceeding $2 trillion. This surge in debt has caused a significant increase in interest payments. They are now the second-largest federal budget item after Social Security. Treasury yields, which underpin borrowing costs across the economy, are now at their highest levels since late 2023. For example, the 10-year Treasury yield recently rose to 4.79% before settling slightly lower.¹

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²

These rising yields are a concern for lawmakers and investors alike. Rep. Ralph Norman (R-S.C.) noted, “The buyers of our bonds are getting nervous that we’re at the point that we cannot pay it back. That affects every one of us.” As interest rates climb, servicing the debt costs more. Further straining the government’s finances.³

The Challenges of Extending the Tax Cuts

Congress passed the Trump tax cuts, estimated to cost $4 trillion over the next decade, using budget reconciliation. This let Republicans bypass a Senate filibuster. However, to comply with these rules, the cuts to individual income taxes were set to expire at the end of 2025. Extending them now faces formidable obstacles.

Key Republican lawmakers want big spending cuts to offset the tax cuts. They warn that ignoring the deficit could raise interest rates. Rep. Andy Barr (R-Ky.) emphasized, “The bond market is telling Congress that if we don’t get our fiscal house in order, everybody’s mortgage rates, everybody’s credit card rates, everybody’s auto loan rates are going to continue to go up.”⁴

The bond market’s reaction underscores these concerns. Stephen Jen, CEO of Eurizon SLJ Capital, explained, “The bond market has begun to express their discomfort, and inflation being sticky is also a warning for Trump 2.0.”⁵

Political Divisions Add Complexity

Republican lawmakers face pressure from within their ranks to ensure fiscal discipline. Some conservatives, including Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), will not support tax cuts without spending cuts. “As we speak, interest rates are going up, our debt is getting refinanced at higher interest rates, and we have more debt,” Roy said, emphasizing the need for fiscal responsibility.⁶

What This Means for You

For the average American, the stakes are high. Higher Treasury yields mean higher interest rates on mortgages, credit cards, and auto loans. Putting even more strain on household budgets.

If the 2017 Trump tax cuts (Tax Cuts and Jobs Act or TCJA) expire at the end of 2025, taxes will rise significantly for many Americans. They will jump an average of 22%. Middle-income families, such as a household earning the median income of $80,610, could face a $1,695 hike. The standard deduction would shrink, the Child Tax Credit would halve for 40 million families, and the top marginal tax rate would rise to 39.6%. Small businesses may lose a vital deduction, and AMT filings could surge from 200,000 to 7.3 million, creating widespread financial strain.⁷

Rep. Barr highlighted the potential upside of addressing the deficit: “What we need to say to the American people is, look, this is not austerity. This is not painful cuts. This is about lowering your mortgage payment.” But achieving this balance will require tough political choices. It will also need significant bipartisan cooperation, a rare thing in Washington.⁸

Conclusion

Rising bond yields and fiscal pressures highlight the need to protect your assets in an uncertain economy. The Trump tax cuts’ fate will affect the economy and your personal finances. One cannot ignore their implications, whether they are extended or left to expire. To protect your portfolio, consider diversify with precious metals. Gold and silver, held in a Gold IRA, can offer long-term security against an increasingly uncertain economic future. To learn more, contact us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes
1. https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trumps-tax-cut-plans-face-bond-market-headwinds-gop-lawmakers-warn
2. https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iqyCi_y8OH44/v3/-1x-1.webp
3. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/republicans-congress-warn-rising-us-bond-yields-could-hit-trumps-tax-cut-plans-2025-01-16/
4. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/republicans-congress-warn-rising-us-bond-yields-could-hit-trumps-tax-cut-plans-2025-01-16/
5. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/warning-for-trump-as-bond-markets-call-bluff-on-gop-tax-cut-plan-reports/ar-AA1xospA
6. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/warning-for-trump-as-bond-markets-call-bluff-on-gop-tax-cut-plan-reports/ar-AA1xospA
7. https://waysandmeans.house.gov/2025/01/07/millions-of-taxpayers-will-have-to-do-returns-twice-while-paying-higher-taxes-if-key-trump-tax-reforms-expire/
8. https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/trumps-tax-cut-plans-face-bond-market-headwinds-gop-lawmakers-warn

 

• Even as optimism returns to the economy, risks to the commercial real estate sector are increasing.
• The CRE sector is threatened by massive maturing debt, high interest rates, soaring vacancies and declining property values.
• Physical precious metals held in a Gold IRA can offer long-term protection from the impact of a CRE collapse.

CRE Risks Grow

Even as optimism spreads throughout the economy, significant risks remain—or in some cases, are growing. The commercial real estate (CRE) market is on the brink of a financial abyss. The effects will go beyond property owners. The fallout threatens the stability of the broader economy, and the retirement funds of countless Americans.

Crisis in the Making

In November 2024, the delinquency rate for office commercial mortgage-backed securities hit 10.4%. It was near the 10.7% peak during the 2008 financial crisis. This marks the fastest two-year increase on record, climbing 8.8% since 2022. Persistent high vacancy rates and declining rents have accelerated the CRE sector’s severe downturn. Older office buildings have been hit hardest, with property values plummeting by 50% to 70%. In some cases, these properties are now worthless.¹

Roots of the Problem

The current crisis stems from several interconnected factors:

Bad Investments and Low Interest Rates: The pandemic’s low interest rates spurred a wave of unsustainable loans. When interest rates rose, borrowers faced soaring debt payments, often doubling or more.

Remote Work and Zoning Restrictions: The rise of remote work has cut demand for office space. Zoning rules have blocked efforts to repurpose office buildings.

Loan Restructuring Strategies: Banks have used “extend and pretend” strategies. They restructured loans to delay addressing financial distress. This “survive till 2025” mindset has dominated the market. But the hoped-for Fed rate cuts are unlikely.

Rising Interest Rates and Mounting Debt

Treasury yields, which influence mortgage rates, have soared. Rising inflation, tariff threats, and a $36 trillion national debt have caused this. The 30-year mortgage rate hit 7.76% in November 2023. It will likely stay above 6% for a while. This has dashed hopes of refinancing. Many properties now face financial distress.²

The debt cliff looms large: $570 billion in commercial loans will mature in 2025, with nearly 40% held by banks. In 2026, $1.8 trillion in loans will mature. Borrowers may see a 75% to 100% rise in debt payments due to high interest rates. This escalates the risk of delinquencies and foreclosures.³

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Systemic Risk to Banks

Regional banks, which hold nearly 70% of CRE loans in the U.S., are particularly vulnerable. CRE loans make up 38% of loan portfolios for banks with under $10 billion in assets. For larger banks, it’s only 12.5%. Tomasz Piskorski, a real estate professor at Columbia, warns of tens of billions in potential banking losses. Regional bank failures could trigger a domino effect. It might destabilize the entire financial system. This could cause deposit outflows, forced asset sales, and systemic risk. The collapse of commercial real estate could push an already fragile banking system into total meltdown.⁵

Regulatory Challenges and Insurance Costs

Regulatory scrutiny is increasing as the crisis deepens. Meanwhile, inflation and natural disasters are raising insurance costs. This adds to the financial strain. Richard Barkham, CBRE’s chief economist, notes that high interest rates may prevent a market rebound. This could further hurt property owners and lenders.

Implications for Retirement Funds

The CRE sector’s link to the banking system means risks extend to individual retirement funds. Many retirement portfolios include commercial real estate via REITs or other financial tools. Falling property values and rising defaults could harm these investments. This threatens the retirement of millions of Americans. It could also trigger failing banks and crash the stock market.

The Road Ahead

The Counselors of Real Estate, a global group of real estate advisors, projects that financing challenges will persist. Cautious buyers and sellers will keep market activity low. Cap rates, a key metric for property investment returns, are expected to climb, signaling higher risk and lower property values. Regulatory and cost barriers make it hard to convert office space to other uses.

Conclusion

The warning signs in commercial real estate are clear. The sector’s struggles could harm the economy, the banking system, and retirement funds.
In light of these challenges, diversification strategies are more critical than ever. Gold and other precious metals have long been a hedge against economic uncertainty and inflation. As the CRE sector nears a debt cliff, gold can protect your retirement. It offers stability in a volatile market. To learn how physical precious metals held in a Gold IRA can offer long-term security, call us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://thedailyeconomy.org/article/the-commercial-mortgage-crisis-deepens/
2. https://www.credaily.com/briefs/2025-interest-rate-outlook-and-how-cre-is-impacted/
3. https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-office-interest-rates-risks-industrial-trump-2024-12
4. https://www.creanalyst.com/insights/facing-cres-maturity-wall-what-investors-need-to-know-now
5. https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-office-interest-rates-risks-industrial-trump-2024-12

 

• The United States is set to break its debt ceiling unless immediate action is taken.
• Extraordinary measures” can only keep the government open until July, with dire global consequences if a deal isn’t reached by then.
• Precious metals held in a Gold IRA offers a way to protect your wealth from the effects of the imminent debt crisis.

Hitting the Debt Ceiling
The U.S. is once again approaching the debt ceiling, a critical fiscal event with profound economic implications. The current debt limit was reinstated at $36.1 trillion. Expiring in January, it is already under pressure. The national debt has surpassed $36.28 trillion. Without swift congressional action, the government may soon face stark choices about which obligations to honor, potentially triggering a global financial crisis.¹

The Debt Ceiling and Its History

The debt ceiling was introduced in 1917 to help the Treasury Department fund World War I. It sets a cap on how much the U.S. government can borrow without further congressional approval. Since then, Congress has raised or suspended the limit more than 100 times. This mechanism forces lawmakers to confront the nation’s fiscal challenges. However, it has turned into a political flashpoint, contributing to repeated budgetary brinkmanship.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has warned that the U.S. will hit its borrowing limit by January 23, 2025. This is largely due to obligations like Medicare. Once the ceiling is reached, the Treasury will employ “extraordinary measures” to keep the government operating. These measures, however, are a stopgap solution. They can only keep the government going until the summer. They can’t resolve the underlying fiscal problem.

Risks of a Debt Ceiling Breach

If Congress fails to raise or suspend the debt ceiling, the consequences could be catastrophic. The government would be forced to make hard funding choices. Such as choosing between paying interest on its debt or funding Social Security. Such a scenario could erode confidence in U.S. Treasury bills, a cornerstone of global finance. Analysts predict that the $10 trillion investable market for T-bills could shrink by 30%. Leading to lower yields for money market funds and increased volatility in funding markets.²

The economic fallout would not stop there. A government unable to meet all its obligations risks defaulting on its debt. That would undermine the global financial system. According to the Council of Economic Advisers, a default would “quickly shift the economy into reverse,” with the severity of the downturn depending on how long the breach lasted.³

Mounting Debt and Fiscal Challenges

The U.S. government spent nearly $1 trillion on interest payments alone in fiscal year 2024. A significant increase from the previous year. This figure now exceeds defense spending. And illustrates how debt servicing is consuming a growing share of the federal budget. Despite warnings from Secretary Yellen and economists, Congress remains divided on how to address the crisis.

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Several people say the debt ceiling no longer serves its original purpose of fiscal oversight. President Donald Trump argued for abolishing the debt ceiling. He said getting rid of it entirely would be the “smartest thing it [Congress] could do. I would support that entirely.” Barring that, Trump is pushing for a two-year extension of the debt ceiling to avoid immediate economic disruption.⁵

Prominent Democrats such as Nancy Pelosi and Senator Elizabeth Warren have called for scrapping the debt ceiling. They argue that it creates unnecessary risk and allows the threat of default to be used as a political weapon. While opinions differ on the solution, the current path is clearly unsustainable. As the Social Security trust fund approaches insolvency, the federal deficit will grow even faster, necessitating further debt limit increases.

The Case for Precious Metals

In times of economic uncertainty, gold has historically served as a reliable store of value. Unlike fiat currencies, gold is independent of government policies and retains intrinsic worth. Recent years have seen gold prices reach record highs. A trend that is likely to continue as fiscal instability worsens.

Owning precious metals in a Gold IRA offers a way to protect your wealth from the effects of a debt crisis. A Gold IRA allows individuals to hold physical gold and other precious metals in a tax-advantaged retirement account. This diversification can shield your portfolio from the volatility associated with traditional assets like stocks and bonds during economic turmoil.

Conclusion

The impending debt ceiling crisis underscores the fragility of the U.S. fiscal landscape. While Congress debates whether to raise, suspend, or eliminate the debt ceiling, the risks to the economy grow. Defaulting on the nation’s obligations would not only devastate the U.S. economy but also send shockwaves through global markets. To learn how you can protect the value of your retirement funds with precious metals, contact us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://dailyhodl.com/2025/01/04/janet-yellen-warns-extraordinary-measures-incoming-as-36288567567400-national-debt-approaches-ceiling/
2. https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/why-investors-clinging-to-cash-could-lose-money-in-u-s-debt-ceiling-fight/ar-AA1x8ly6
3. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-calls-abolishing-debt-ceiling-rcna184820
4. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-65461927
5. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-calls-abolishing-debt-ceiling-rcna184820

 

• The S&P 500 has reached record levels of concentration
• Shifts in Nvidia prices sends ripples through the entire market due to its outsized position
• Diversifying your portfolio with gold can protect it from stock market concentration

Market Concentration Risks

The stock market is currently experiencing an unprecedented level of concentration in a handful of stocks. This phenomenon has far-reaching implications. It heightens market vulnerability to the performance of a select few mega-cap tech companies like Nvidia. Apollo Management has identified Nvidia missing inflated earnings expectations as one of the top two risks of 2025. For those looking to safeguard their portfolios, gold is standing out as a hedge against such volatility.¹

Market Concentration at Historic Highs

The S&P 500’s Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) is a measure of market concentration. It reached an all-time high in 2024. As of 2023, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 accounted for 27% of the total market capitalization. That is nearly double from 14% in 2014. This trend reflects a growing dependence on a handful of tech giants, often referred to as the “Magnificent Seven.” They are responsible for more than half of the S&P 500’s 26.3% gain in 2023.²

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³

Nvidia’s position within this elite group is particularly striking. It makes up approximately 20.23% of the market capitalization of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500. Its dominant influence on the index’s performance in 2024 is clear. However, with such prominence comes vulnerability. If Nvidia’s performance falters, the ripple effects could destabilize not only the tech sector but also the broader market.

Nvidia’s Market Dominance

Nvidia has become a linchpin in the tech sector. It accounted for 20% of the S&P 500’s total returns over the past year. Its projected contribution of nearly 25% to the S&P 500’s earnings per share (EPS) growth in the third quarter of 2024 further underscores its outsized influence. The options market anticipates that Nvidia’s earnings report alone could move the S&P 500 by 1.05%. That is a shift larger than those caused by key economic indicators like employment or inflation reports.⁴

This central role highlights Nvidia as a barometer for market performance. But it also magnifies the risks of over-reliance on a single company. This concentration calls for a diversified approach to safeguard against potential downturns.

Fragility in the Tech Sector

While Nvidia and other mega-cap stocks have driven impressive returns, their high valuations create fragility. Analysts have raised concerns about the broader market’s overvaluation. They are comparing current conditions to 1929 levels. Nvidia’s pivotal role in the artificial intelligence (AI) boom has heightened its influence. But any misstep—whether earnings shortfalls, competition, or technical challenges—could prompt a reassessment of AI-related investments, amplifying market volatility.

Emerging Risks

Recent developments highlight potential risks for Nvidia. Reports of overheating issues with its new Blackwell chip have surfaced. At the same time, slowing revenue growth and increased competition from Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), whose Instinct GPUs are gaining traction, could temper investor enthusiasm.

Nvidia’s massive market capitalization hovers around $3.1 trillion. Even modest changes in its stock price can lead to significant value shifts across the market. On September 3, 2024, Nvidia stock fell 9.5% after investors considered the company’s underwhelming profit guidance over a long weekend. This decline erased $278.9 billion from Nvidia’s market value, which was the largest one-day market cap loss for any U.S. company on record. That is greater than the market capitalization of major corporations like Toyota or Adobe. This interconnectedness amplifies the risk of a broader market correction if Nvidia falters.⁵

Fortification with Diversification

The unprecedented concentration in the stock market and Nvidia’s outsized role make a compelling case for diversifying your portfolio. In a market driven by cutting-edge technology, the ultimate protection may lie in an ancient store of value: gold.
Gold provides a counterbalance to equities, particularly during periods of market stress. When stocks fall, gold often holds its value or appreciates, offering stability.

Conclusion

While Nvidia’s dominance reflects its innovation and market leadership, it also underscores the risks of market concentration. Wall Street may be setting itself up for failure by putting too many eggs in Nvidia’s basket. If Nvidia stumbles, the resulting ripple effect could shake the entire market. Sectors far beyond tech could be brought down. By allocating a portion of your portfolios to gold, especially in a Gold IRA, you can insure against the impact of potential market corrections. Contact American Hartford Gold today to learn more by calling 800-461-0071.

Notes:
1. https://www.apolloacademy.com/risks-in-2025/
2. https://www.morganstanley.com/im/publication/insights/articles/article_stockmarketconcentration.pdf
3. https://www.instagram.com/cervknowledge/p/DDvMft0ALRk/the-magnificent-7alphabet-amazon-apple-meta-microsoft-nvidia-and-teslanow-domina/
4. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-nvidia-earnings-may-trigger-000013120.html
5. https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nvidias-crucial-earnings-report-market-impact-stock-history-and-emerging-challenges

 

• This holiday season, gold is again proving itself a timeless means for financial security
• Gold offers independence, inflation protection, diversification
• A Gold IRA combines wealth-building tax advantages with the benefits of precious metals

A Timeless Asset

More than 2,000 years ago, gold was gifted by wise men as a statement of faith. Today, gold remains a timeless and wise gift, providing economic security in troubling times. As we look ahead to 2025, here are five compelling reasons why gold could be the perfect way to safeguard your financial future.

1. Gold Offers Independence

In an economy increasingly influenced by forces beyond our control, gold stands out as a truly independent asset. The excitement surrounding today’s overheated stock market often feels disconnected from the growing pressures of a rising cost of living. Meanwhile, real estate and the dollar are subject to an inscrutable Federal Reserve agenda. And the rise of a digital dollar is threatening personal financial privacy and freedom.

Gold is not tied to any government or central authority. Its unique properties – including its low correlation with other assets, behavior during various economic conditions, supply dynamics, and recognition by central banks – support this independence. Offering liquidity, privacy, and the ease of transfer— gold is a powerful safeguard against a rapidly changing financial landscape.

2. Hedge Against Inflation

With inflation rates fluctuating, gold remains a proven hedge against the eroding power of the dollar. Inflation has come down from its 40-year record high of 9.1%, but it remains above the Fed’s 2% target. And now, analysts fear inflationary pressures are on the rise. So much so that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates at all in 2025. They dread reigniting inflation. Gold’s value tends to rise in response to inflation, offering a stable store of wealth even as paper currencies lose their purchasing power.

Gold’s strong performance in 2024 has reinforced its reputation as an effective hedge against inflation. Despite persistent inflation, gold has surged to new all-time highs, reaching $2,790.07 per ounce in October. Additionally, it increased by 26.85% since the beginning of 2024, significantly outpacing inflation.¹

3. Portfolio Diversification

Modern Portfolio Theory emphasizes the importance of diversifying to reduce risk. Gold historically performs well during market downturns, acting as a counterbalance to stocks and bonds. In 2024, gold has been one of the best-performing assets. Even amid positive performance from risk assets, a stronger U.S. dollar, and elevated bond yields. This stellar performance reinforces its value as a key diversification tool in any portfolio.²

4. Rising Demand in 2025

The demand for gold is expected to grow in 2025. It is driven by strong central bank demand from emerging markets like China, India, and Turkey, along with growing consumer interest in Asia. Geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are also boosting safe-haven demand. Major financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citibank, and Commonwealth Bank, predict gold will reach $3,000 per ounce by 2025 or 2026. The World Gold Council shares this optimistic outlook, citing factors such as changing monetary policy, a potential weakening of the U.S. dollar, and increasing investor interest in safe-haven assets.³

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5. Tax Advantages of Gold IRAs

A Gold IRA offers several tax advantages that can help grow your retirement savings. With a traditional Gold IRA, your funds grow tax-deferred until withdrawal. Contributions may also be tax-deductible, reducing your taxable income in the year you contribute. For those with a Roth Gold IRA, qualified withdrawals in retirement are tax-free, provided certain conditions are met. You can also roll over funds from other retirement accounts into a Gold IRA without incurring immediate taxes, if done correctly. Additionally, a traditional Gold IRA may allow you to pay taxes at a lower rate in retirement. Gold IRAs can also help reduce inheritance taxes, making it easier to pass wealth on to your heirs. With Gold IRAs, you get the dual benefits of diversification with precious metals while maintaining IRA tax benefits.

Conclusion

This holiday season, consider the wisdom behind the gift of gold. Whether you’re looking to diversify your portfolio, hedge against inflation, or invest in a secure future, gold offers unparalleled benefits. To learn how you can gain the advantages of a Gold IRA, call American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/gold
2. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2024/11/lets-tally-rally
3. https://investinghaven.com/forecasts/gold-price-prediction/
4. https://fortune.com/img-assets/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/GOL_charts_111824.png?w=1440&q=75

 

• The Federal Reserve issued its third and final rate cut for 2024
• Lingering inflation, dropping stock markets, and high interest rates are increasing investor uncertainty
• Gold and silver held in a Gold IRA offer long term protection from the Fed’s monetary policy

Fed’s Final Cut

In its third and final rate cut of 2024, the Federal Reserve reduced interest rates by 0.25 percentage points. This marks the conclusion of an aggressive cycle of rate hikes aimed at curbing record-high inflation. However, despite this move to stimulate the economy, stock markets responded negatively, continuing a 10-day losing streak— the longest since the 1970s.

¹

Stock Market Reaction

Stocks had been hitting record highs earlier in the year. But the recent rate cut did little to stop its current slide. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had its biggest drop since August and its longest losing streak since 1974. Similarly, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq have also fallen, with losses intensifying as the day progressed.

Traders had hoped the Fed would continue aggressive rate cuts in 2025. But the expectation of more rate reductions was quickly dampened by the Fed’s cautious outlook.

Bond Yields and Inflation Concerns

After the cut, Treasury yields rose, signaling market expectations of higher inflation. Rising bond yields typically make bonds more attractive to investors compared to stocks. A shift from stocks to bonds can lower stock market performance. And fuel the ongoing market decline.

Future Cuts Uncertain

The Federal Reserve signaled they are almost done with rate cuts. They’re forecasting just two cuts in 2025, down from four. Their goal is to balance low inflation without sending the economy into a recession. Their projection suggests interest rates could drop to 3.4% by 2026, eventually reaching 3%. However, these forecasts might as well be guesses as fresh data brings new predictions. “As we think about further cuts, we’re going to be looking for progress on inflation,” Powell said. He noted that inflation has remained relatively flat over the past 12 months.²

Unemployment and Inflation Projections

Earlier this year, the U.S. was grappling with rising unemployment and falling inflation. Now, however, things seem to have flipped. Inflation has started to rise again, and unemployment is expected to decrease. The Fed has raised its inflation projections for the end of 2025 from 2.1% to 2.5%. Powell has made it clear that while inflation has slowed, prices are still rising. He said the Fed can only slow the rise of prices. Only a recession would actually lower them.³

Rate Cuts in Trump’s Economy

President Trump has promised more growth through tax cuts, deregulation, and tariffs. Such growth would likely cause more inflationary pressures. This puts the Fed in a delicate position. They may need to raise rates again to control inflation. Only to lower them again to avoid a recession.

This lack of a long-term, disciplined policy approach contributes to economic uncertainty. And heightens the risk of stagflation— a situation where inflation rises while economic growth slows.

The Fed’s Neutral Rate Goal

Powell’s pursuit of a “neutral rate” exposes a lack of clear direction. A “neutral rate” is one that neither stimulates nor hurts economic growth. “We’re pretty sure it’s below where we are now,” Powell said. “But as we move further, there will be more uncertainty about where that is.”⁴

Conclusion

Inflation is still lingering, and interest rates are at their peak for now. Americans can expect little to no relief from high borrowing costs. Mortgage rates and credit card interest rates are unlikely to decrease significantly in the immediate future. And as the Trump economy takes hold, inflation could rise again, causing further strain on household budgets.

In times of economic uncertainty, one way to protect your wealth is through physical precious metals, such as gold. Gold has historically served as a hedge against inflation and market volatility. While the stock market may continue to struggle under the pressure of high interest rates and rising inflation, physical gold offers long-term protection for your retirement funds, especially in a Gold IRA. To learn more about how gold can help safeguard your nest egg in these uncertain times, call us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/INTERESTRATES-AUTOMATED/US-10-YEARS-202412/mypmbqdqlvr/chart.png
2. https://www.wsj.com/articles/transcript-fed-chief-jerome-powells-postmeeting-press-conference-bb0d39dc
3. https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/12/18/business/fed-interest-rates
4. https://www.investors.com/news/economy/federal-reserve-meeting-december-final-rate-cut-sp-500/

• Development of Central Bank Digital Currencies, aka, a Digital Dollar, is accelerating around the globe
• The U.S. is motivated to develop a digital dollar to avoid losing economic dominance to China in the cyber age
• Deemed inevitable, a digital dollar can be defended against by moving assets into physical precious metals
  China Claims World’s Largest Gold Vein

Rise of the Digital Dollar

The push toward Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), aka, a Digital Dollar, is reshaping the global financial landscape at lightning speed. With 134 countries exploring CBDCs—including major powers like China piloting massive programs—this shift is more than a trend; it’s a race. But as the U.S. navigates its role in this new digital economy, critical questions arise: What does a “digital dollar” mean for your financial freedom? And more importantly, how can you protect yourself against the risks?

Where the Digital Dollar is Now

– 134 countries, representing 98% of global GDP are exploring a CBDC. That number was only 35 in 2020.
– 19 G20 countries are in the advanced stages of launching a CBDC
– All original members of the BRICS Alliance (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are in pilot phase
– Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the number of cross-border wholesale CBDC projects has doubled
– Project mBridge connects banks in China, Thailand, Saudi Arabia, and others using CBDC
– The Digital yuan(e-CNY) is the largest CBDC pilot in the world. In June 2024, the e-CNY did over $986 billion in transactions, four times the amount done in June 2023
– The digital euro is in pilot for domestic use in Europe and internationally¹

²

How About the U.S.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is participating in a cross-border CBDC project. It’s called Project Agora. It connects the Fed with 6 other major central banks. Along with a large group of private financial firms. Fed Chair Powell told the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) Innovation Summit 2021 that ‘way more than half’ of the Fed’s 12 regional banks had ‘active work’ on CBDC.³

What Exactly is a Digital Dollar

A digital dollar is issued by a central bank and controlled by a government. They are different than cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. Cryptocurrencies are decentralized. Their transactions aren’t monitored by one authority. Instead, blockchain technology is used as an independent ledger.

Why Governments Want a Digital Dollar

There are several reasons for countries to adopt a digital dollar. They are promoted as making money more accessible to those outside of the banking system. CBDC are supposed to increase efficiency in domestic and international trade transactions. Making them cheaper and faster. CBDC could allow governments to implement monetary policy faster and more effectively.

Why the U.S. Wants a Digital Dollar

The U.S. wants a CBDC for all the above reasons. But they have another motivation. The U.S. needs to retain its role as the world’s dominant currency. They want to keep all the financial advantages that gives. Policy makers fear that if the U.S. doesn’t take the lead, it will itself locked out of a new electronic financial system. Its leading role would be replaced by China, who is leading the development of CBDCs. China’s first-mover advantages would allow it to determine the shape of this new economic world order. With itself at top and its CBDC as the new primary means of exchange.

Problems of the Digital Dollar

The digital dollar brings problems along with its solutions. The U.S. could lose the ability to track criminal money flows or enforce sanctions.

A federally issued and controlled dollar could make the private banking system obsolete. Major economic disruptions could result.

The digital dollar also creates greater fears about loss of freedom. Both economic and personal. The Federal Reserve could manipulate their digital dollar to control financial behavior. For example, say they want to stimulate consumer spending to avoid recession. They can put an expiration date on dollars. If they aren’t spent by a certain time, they disappear from your account. Or the Fed can implement negative interest rates to force retirement savers to spend their funds. Cyber money also becomes vulnerable to cyber criminals. Billions could be stolen from the safety behind their screens.

Freedom advocates also fear the control a digital dollar would give. Every transaction would be recorded. There would be no more privacy. And there could be consequences for buying something or supporting a cause the government doesn’t approve of. It would be in their power to block the transaction, fine you, or simply erase your funds from the digital ledger without recourse.

Resistance to the Digital Dollar

President-elect Trump is taking the lead to stopping an American digital dollar. He stated, “As your president, I will never allow the creation of a central bank digital currency.” He continued, ” Such a currency would give the federal government – our federal government – the absolute control over your money. They could take your money, you wouldn’t even know it was gone. This would be a dangerous threat to freedom – and I will stop it from coming to America.”⁴

Legal analysts have stated that the Federal Reserve does not appear to have legal authority to issue a CBDC without congressional authorization. And Fed Chair Powell said he would not issue a digital dollar without Congressional approval.

The House of Representatives already voted to stop the Fed from issuing a digital dollar. House Democrats fought hard to stop the bill. But the bill has not yet been addressed in the Senate. Right now, the Republicans hold a slim majority. A majority that may disappear in two years. Afterwards, Congress would have a free hand to push their digital dollar agenda.
Fearful of the federal government, states are fighting back against a digital dollar. Florida, Missouri, and Tennessee have introduced bills to ban or limit the use of CBDCs.

Conclusion

The global financial system is going digital. The U.S. may ultimately be forced to join the Digital Dollar movement to avoid being shut out of the new economy. Currently, President-elect Trump, Republicans and some states are resisting being dragged into the digital dollar world. But the change may be inevitable. That’s why it is important to do something now to protect your assets. Owning physical precious metals gives you a safe haven asset that is immune from the hazards of the digital dollar. A Gold IRA gives you the means to protect your funds for the long term. To learn more, call us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/cbdctracker/
2. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/cbdctracker/
3. https://www.bis.org/press/p240403.htm
4. https://www.globalgovernmentfintech.com/trump-pledges-to-block-potential-us-central-bank-digital-currency/

• China claims to have discovered the largest gold vein in the world.
• The discovery strengthens China’s de-dollarization ambitions.
• Americans can defend against the economic impact of lost U.S. supremacy with physical gold held in a Gold IRA.

China Claims World’s Largest Gold Vein

China has struck gold—literally—and the shockwaves could shake the global economy. China recently announced the discovery of a massive deposit of high-quality gold ore. It is estimated to possess 1,000 tons of gold worth $83 billion. Making it the largest known gold deposit in the world. The discovery has the potential to affect everything from China’s ambitions to your retirement account. ¹

Gold prices surged on the announcement. And the potential new massive supply raised questions about gold’s continuing upswing. Yet, the World Gold Council (WGC) was quick to doubt the find. They say the claim is ‘aspirational’. And much more drilling would be needed to turn this into a reserve. In addition, the WGC says Chinese mineral reporting standards don’t match global frameworks. “Even if proven, such a deposit would take years to bring into production,” they concluded. ²

Impact on Gold Market

Further analysis deflates concerns about oversupply. The global gold market produces 3,600 tons a year. It would see little impact from a mine producing 15 to 30 tons a year (roughly 1% of supply).³

⁴

China is already the world’s largest gold producer but is facing a decline in output. This a problem for them because Chinese gold consumption surpasses their mining capacity.
China’s gold jewelry demand rose 10% last year, while bar and coin investment rose 28%.

To get an idea of the size of the Chinese market, in the last two years, overseas purchases were about equal to a third of the gold held by the U.S. Federal Reserve. To meet demand, they need significant imports from Australia and South Africa. The newly discovered Wangu vein could reverse that trend and extend their reserves.⁵

China’s Gold Ambitions

China’s gold strategy is shrouded in mystery. The People’s Bank of China paused its gold buying spree earlier this year. They bought record-setting amounts of gold for 17 straight months. Now, analysis shows that China has continued buying gold secretly on the London Bullion market through bullion banks. The secret buying exploded after sanctions froze Russia assets in 2022 after the Ukraine invasion.

Analysts theorize that gold plays an essential role in China’s economic and political ambitions. Acquiring gold would fortify an economy in the grips of several financial crises. Greater gold reserves enhance China’s economic leverage and resource security. It also furthers their goal to usurp America’s role of global economic leader. Gold allows them to accelerate de-dollarization. Turning the renmibi into the dominant currency for international trade and foreign reserves.

Gold to Continue to Climb

Up 30% year-to-date, gold prices are spiking. Western investment is only now catching up to the East’s. Demand is driven by inflation fears, global conflicts, national debt concerns, and lowering interest rates. Yet, China’s insatiable demand underpins it all. And experts believe there is still more room to grow due to limited investment options for Chinese.

Managing director of Hong Kong based Precious Metals Insights said, “The weight of money available under these circumstances for an asset like gold… is pretty considerable. There isn’t much alternative in China. With exchange controls and capital controls, you can’t just look at other markets to put your money into.”⁶

Conclusion

China is known for playing the long game – focusing on steady, long-term growth in all aspects of national power. They aim to create a multipolar world where it stands as an equal or superior to the United States. This new gold bonanza feeds into that vision, assuming they can develop it.

Instead of lowering gold prices by opening this new reserve to the world, China may very well keep it for domestic consumption. If their projected demand continues, a perfect storm for gold prices will form. And, with newfound Chinese resource security, an increased threat of de-dollarization along with it.

Americans can protect against the impact of this Chinese lucky strike. They can move into gold and away from dollar denominated assets put at risk by de-dollarization and a more expansive, aggressive China. Call American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn how a Gold IRA can protect your retirement funds.

Notes:
1. https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/geology/supergiant-gold-deposit-discovered-in-china-is-one-of-the-largest-on-earth-and-is-worth-more-than-usd80-billion
2. https://www.mining.com/chinas-super-giant-gold-discovery-claim-sounds-aspirational-wgc-expert-says/
3. https://www.mining.com/chinas-super-giant-gold-discovery-claim-sounds-aspirational-wgc-expert-says/
4. https://mining.com.au/massive-china-discovery-could-change-global-gold-market/
5. https://fortune.com/2024/04/21/gold-price-outlook-record-high-china-demand-consumers-investors-pboc/
6. https://mining.com.au/massive-china-discovery-could-change-global-gold-market/

• Find peace of mind this holiday season by adding physical gold and silver to your portfolio.
• Gold demand is increasing as numerous factors are increasing economic uncertainty.
• Contact American Hartford Gold today to learn how physical precious metals, especially in a Gold IRA, can safeguard your financial future.

Peace of Mind This Season

As we enter the holiday season, many of us are focused on expressing thanks for the good things in our lives and wishing for peace and happiness in the year ahead. This season reminds us of the value of connection, family, and traditions, even as we continue to face uncertainty in the world around us. As the year draws to a close, it’s an ideal moment to consider ways to safeguard our future, especially our financial security.

One such option that offers peace of mind in uncertain times is adding physical gold and silver to your portfolio. These precious metals have long been seen as a reliable hedge against economic instability, inflation, and other financial risks.

Gold: Symbolic and Practical

Gold is integral to many holiday traditions, especially as a gift. Jewelry makes up about 50% of global gold sales. Gold jewelry is cherished not only for its beauty but also for its enduring value. Yet there is far more to gold than just jewelry; it can be the foundation for a secure financial future.

Gold can play a vital role in building a balanced and diversified retirement portfolio. It offers a level of stability that other assets may not. By diversifying with gold, you can reduce risk and protect your wealth from the unpredictable swings of the stock market.

The importance of gold is no secret. Gold prices have surged more than 70% since 2020. Experts predict it could surpass $3,000 per ounce in the coming year. The past few months, gold has been on a record-breaking streak, recently crossing the $2,700 an ounce mark.¹

Why Gold

And while we hope for a joyous season, it is still plagued by uncertainty. Here are some of the concerns that have institutions and individuals turning to gold for security.

Inflation: After a brief respite, inflation is ticking back up. Cumulative inflation has reached 22% since 2020. Different sectors have experienced varying levels of inflation, with transportation seeing the highest at 34.71%, followed by food and beverages (22.68%) and housing costs (22.64%). ³

With inflationary pressures continuing due to factors like government spending, global conflicts, and supply shortages, gold remains a trusted hedge against inflation. Since it holds intrinsic value, gold typically appreciates when inflation erodes the purchasing power of the dollar.

National Debt: The U.S. national debt has now surpassed $36 trillion, contributing to fears of economic instability. As JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has stated, public debt is “the most predictable crisis” facing the American economy. In this environment, gold is considered a safe-haven asset that can protect your wealth against the devaluation of the dollar caused by rising debt. ⁴

Stock Market Volatility: Many analysts believe stocks are overvalued and that a market correction is imminent. When stocks fall, retirement accounts such as 401(k)s and IRAs are often hit hard. Unlike stocks, gold maintains its value and tends to move in the opposite direction of equities, making it a valuable asset for diversifying your portfolio.

Recession Fears: The possibility of a recession looms large, driven by aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the economic slowdown that follows. A recession can lead to increased unemployment, stagnating wages, and declining business activity. During these times, gold often performs well as investors seek stability amidst uncertainty.

Economic Risks from Policy Changes: Proposed policies from political leaders like Donald Trump could further exacerbate inflation. His proposed tax cuts and corporate incentives, if implemented, may stimulate short-term economic growth. But they may also increase the national deficit. Additionally, his plans to implement tariffs on goods could push up prices across many sectors. Inflation could rise as a result of both. As prices rise, gold becomes an even more attractive option for protecting your wealth.

In addition, geopolitical risks, including trade wars and potential tariffs, could further strain economies. Creating even more volatility in financial markets. As such, gold is being sought after to hedge against such risks.

Conclusion

As you celebrate this holiday season, we wish you joy, peace, and prosperity in the year ahead. While we’re all focused on the people and traditions that bring us comfort, it’s also a good time to reflect on securing your financial well-being. Give yourself the gift of peace of mind this season—learn more about how gold, especially in a Gold IRA, can help safeguard your future. Call American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://www.macrotrends.net/1333/historical-gold-prices-100-year-chart
2. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-mid-year-outlook-2024
3. https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/2020?amount=52000
4. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jamie-dimon-believes-u-public-110537564.html

• Goldman Sachs advises ‘Go for Gold’ – predicting it will break $3,000 an ounce in 2025.
• Record breaking demand is fueled by central bank demand, interest rate cuts, inflation, and global conflict.
• Physical precious metals held in a Gold IRA offer long term wealth protection and potential growth.

‘Go for Gold’ says Goldman Sachs

Russia’s recent threat of nuclear war caused gold prices to spike. But that is just the latest reason for gold to surge., Gold has been a standout performer in 2024. It recently hit a major milestone. A standard 400-ounce gold bar is now valued at $1 million. And the precious metal’s rally is far from over. Goldman Sachs is now telling clients to “Go for gold.” The investment giant predicts that gold prices could reach $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. Gold AND silver both offer a hedge against economic uncertainty and a potentially lucrative growth opportunity.¹

Goldman Sachs’ Bullish Case for Gold

²

Goldman Sachs has laid out several compelling reasons why gold is set to climb even higher in the coming years:

Central Bank Demand

Global central banks continue to buy gold as part of a diversification strategy away from the U.S. dollar. While the pace of buying has slowed slightly, demand remains near record levels. This trend is partly driven by growing U.S. debt, which makes Treasury bonds less appealing. Central banks see gold as a more stable and reliable reserve asset in the face of rising debt levels.

Federal Reserve Rate Cuts

Gold prices tend to thrive during periods of monetary easing. And with unemployment on the rise, more rate cuts are likely on the horizon. Goldman Sachs analysts believe lower rates will help stabilize gold prices above $2,600 per ounce. The cuts set the stage for continued growth.

Furthermore, potential political interference may undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve. As a result, confidence in the U.S. dollar could falter, driving investors toward gold.

A Hedge Against Inflation

Inflationary pressures are re-emerging. The two major measures of inflation both rose in October. And they are poised to go up. Trump’s proposed tariffs may result in higher prices. Economists estimate they could cost the average U.S. household $2,600 annually. The tariffs would likely result in a rise in trade tensions, which would also help inflate gold prices.³

Geopolitical Uncertainty

Ongoing global conflicts are likely to support gold demand. Especially as the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East grow hotter. The threat of global economic instability is driving investors to take a “flight to safety.” As gold proves itself to be a stable store of value in times of crisis.

The Technical Case for Gold

Gold’s bullish momentum isn’t just about economic fundamentals—it’s supported by strong technical indicators:

Historical Patterns: Since 1980, gold has gone through several bull and bear cycles. Key recovery periods like 2004, 2011, and 2024 highlight its resilience.

Breakouts Across Markets: Gold has reached all-time highs in major currencies, such as the Swiss Franc. This signals broad-based strength.

Silver/Gold Ratio Stability: Unlike past gold peaks, the silver/gold ratio isn’t spiking. An indicator that market sentiment isn’t overheated.

Relative Strength vs. Stocks: Gold’s strength against regional stock indices highlights its potential for long-term outperformance. And for the first time in 12 years, gold is outperforming emerging-market stocks.

As Goldman Sachs notes, inflation and geopolitical concerns are likely to keep gold on an upward trajectory. They recognize it as a critical portfolio diversifier.

Silver Is Also on the Rise

While gold has captured much of the spotlight, silver is quietly making its own headlines. According to the Silver Institute, silver demand is expected to exceed 1.2 billion ounces in 2024. A new record. Meanwhile, significant supply constraints are leaving a deficit of over 200 million ounces.⁴

Why Silver Is Gaining Momentum

Silver’s unique combination of investment appeal and industrial demand makes it a standout option:

Hedge Against Inflation and Instability: Like gold, silver serves as a hedge against inflation, currency devaluation, and systemic financial risks.

Dual Demand: Silver’s role as both a safe-haven asset and a key industrial component in the green economy has driven its price higher. Since March 2020, silver has outperformed many other commodities. That’s due to spiking demand for renewable energy technologies and electronics.

Interest Rate Impact: A recent report highlights silver’s historical performance during interest rate cuts.

“Monetary easing cycles are generally positive for the Silver Price,” the report states. “Since 1981, silver has risen in 6 out of the 7 easing cycles for an average gain of 16.8%.”⁵

A Supercycle in the Making: Analysts believe silver may be entering a supercycle, with price upswings lasting 10 to 20 years. While short-term volatility is possible, the overall trend is expected to remain upward.

Supply Constraints: The growing deficit in the silver market—driven by surging demand and limited supply—adds further support to prices. With industrial demand rising, silver’s long-term prospects remain strong.

Conclusion

Gold prices pulled back slightly after the election. The World Gold Council called the drop a buying opportunity:

“The gold price consolidation following the orderly U.S. election—flushing speculative positioning from near all-time highs—provides an attractive entry point to buy gold,” the council noted in its 2025 commodities outlook.⁶

Gold and silver are both positioned for sustained growth. Institutions and individuals are seeking refuge from inflation, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainty. The case for protecting your wealth with precious metals has never been stronger. And a Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold offers long-term security against financial turmoil. Call 800-462-0071 now to learn how you can secure your financial future with precious metals.

Notes:
1. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-11-19/go-gold-says-goldman-sachs-prices-still-track-hit-3000-year-end-2025
2. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-says-gold-central-banks-023249823.html
3. https://fortune.com/2024/11/18/donald-trump-gold-trade-tariffs-inflation-national-debt-goldman-sachs/
4. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-11-19/multitude-factors-are-aligning-silver-supercycle-silver-institute
5. https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2024-11-19/multitude-factors-are-aligning-silver-supercycle-silver-institute
6. https://fortune.com/2024/11/18/donald-trump-gold-trade-tariffs-inflation-national-debt-goldman-sachs/

• The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in November based on slowing inflation and a weakening job market
• Conflict between the Fed and Donald Trump is making the future of rate cuts uncertain
• Physical precious metals can preserve fund value no matter which side’s policy prevails

Trump, The Fed & Uncertainty

After holding interest rates near record highs for two years, the Fed issued their second cut since September. Motivated by recession fears, the cut is meant to help spur a lagging job market. But the Fed’s future policy could be thrown into turmoil as it collides with President-elect Trump’s bold economic agenda. The heightening uncertainty has insiders taking refuge in safe haven assets like precious precious metals.

Rate Cut

The Fed’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability has them walking a tightrope. With inflation dropping from its record high 9.1%, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a quarter of a point in November. However, high interest rates still have the economy in a “strangle hold” posing a risk to the job market.¹

Data shows the risks of the job market collapsing and inflation reigniting are the same now. There were 7.4 million job openings in September. Down considerably from 9.3 million that time last year. Unemployment is also up from last year – raising fears of recession.

²

Future Cuts

Several more rate cuts were expected for 2025. The number of cuts is now uncertain due to potential impacts from Trumps proposals. His plans for tax cuts, deregulation, and tariffs could cause inflation to rise and deficits to grow. In response, the Fed may not only stop cutting rates. They may feel it necessary to raise them again. Nomura Bank expects just one more cut in 2025 if Trump quickly implements his plans.

Trump vs the Fed

Despite economic data, Powell acknowledged that Americans have a poor view on the economy due the “lingering trauma of high inflation.” It’s that lingering trauma that helped re-elect Donald Trump.

Officially, the Federal Reserve decision making is independent of the government. Its independence is to protect it from short term political decision making. In the Fed’s own words, it was “designed to carry out its responsibilities without interference or control from the vested interests inherent in electoral politics, fiscal policymaking, and private banking.”³

Alan Greenspan, a five-term Fed chair, said in 1996. “The clear political preference for lower interest rates would unleash inflationary forces, inflicting severe damage on our economy.”⁴

Trump does not hide that he is no fan of the Fed. During his first term, he publicly attacked Powell after raising rates to fight inflation. Trump said about Powell: “He was supposed to be a low-interest-rate guy. It turned out he’s not. … I’m very unhappy with the Fed because Obama had zero interest rates.” Interestingly enough, it was Trump who first nominated Powell. ⁵

Control of Monetary Policy

Trump wants a voice in the central bank’s interest rate decisions. he said: “I think I’m better than most people would be in that position. I think I have the right to say, ‘I think you should go up or down a little bit.’ I don’t think I should be allowed to order it, but I think I have the right to put in comments as to whether or not interest rates should go up or down.”⁶

To that end, Trump maintains that he has ” the right to remove him [Powell].” When asked if Trump has the power to fire him, Powell said no. And demoting him is not permitted under law.

Powell said in the short term, the election won’t impact decision making. He implied another expected cut in December is likely to go ahead. That decision is still dependent on unemployment and inflation data.

Impact of Interference

If political pressure starts to tamper with the Federal Reserve’s independence, the ripple effect could extend far beyond Wall Street. Experts warn that undermining the Fed’s credibility would shake global financial stability. The concern isn’t just about interference from political figures. It’s about the risk of eroding trust in the Fed’s ability to manage inflation. If inflation expectations rise, the Fed might be forced to take drastic measures to regain control. Potentially plunging the economy into a deeper downturn. At worst, such moves could make the U.S. appear less like a stable economy and more like an unpredictable autocracy. The value of the dollar and goods at the whim of political agendas.

Defense Against Uncertainty

The only certainty about the tug of war between the President and the Federal Reserve is heightened uncertainty. To defend against that uncertainty, financial experts are looking to gold.

Historically, gold has held its value through economic and political upheavals. This year alone, gold prices have surged by over 30%. By 2025, some expect they could reach as high as $3,000 per ounce.

Gold is positioned well who wins control for monetary policy. Gold can preserve purchasing power against Trump’s inflationary pressures. Gold can also help shield against losses resulting from a recession triggered by the Fed being forced to raise rates. And a Gold IRA offers long term protection if these adversarial forces drag the economy into a prolonged downturn. To learn how to protect you retirement before it is too late, contact us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes
1. https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/07/economy/fed-meeting-rates-november/index.html
2. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/nov/07/federal-reserve-interest-rates-lowered
3. https://www.marketplace.org/2024/10/28/fed-independence-federal-reserve-politics-trump-harris-election/
4. https://www.marketplace.org/2024/10/28/fed-independence-federal-reserve-politics-trump-harris-election/
5. https://www.marketplace.org/2024/10/28/fed-independence-federal-reserve-politics-trump-harris-election/
6. https://www.marketplace.org/2024/10/28/fed-independence-federal-reserve-politics-trump-harris-election/