• A Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC), aka the digital dollar, would be a national currency controlled by the Federal Reserve
• Citing threats to personal and economic freedom, Congress is pushing back against the implementation of a CBDC
• Gold is proving itself to be an effective defense against the threats posed by CBDCs

Recognizing the Central Bank Digital Currency Threat

Congress is on the same page as the American people when it comes to the ‘digital dollar.’ Both view the electronic currency as a pitfall rather than a prize. Elected officials are pushing back against plans for a central bank digital currency (CBDC). They are driven by concerns over privacy and economic freedom.

The Cato Institute think tank surveyed Americans on CBDCs. The survey showed only 16% favor adopting a CBDC while 34% oppose. But that opposition increases after learning about the potential risks of a CBDC, as seen in the chart below.

¹

Contrary to supporting arguments, CBDC is not a just another form of money. A CBDC is a digital national currency. But it is very different from existing digital forms of the US dollar and cryptocurrency. Relying on cryptography to store and exchange value, cryptocurrency is independent from government. The rise of CBDCs could require the end of cash and cryptocurrency.

Unlike cryptocurrency, a CBDC solidifies government control over money and payments. A central bank like the Federal Reserve creates the CBDC. They then handle and control all transactions. By extension, the government can then determine who gets to use money and precisely how they use it. True, paper money is a Federal Reserve liability. But the government can’t control dollar bills once they are in circulation.

A CBDC also unravels the current public-private partnership between regulators and banks. A CBDC can remove banks from the financial system. And when the government is the only bank in the land, getting a loan could become a political as well as an economic decision.

By automatically monitoring transactions, CBDCs are de facto surveillance tools. China is already using their ‘digital yuan’ as a tool to control their population.

Opposition to CBDC

Rep Alex Mooney recently introduced H.R. 3712, the Digital Dollar Pilot Prevention Act. The bill closes the Federal Reserve’s Central Bank Digital Currency pilot program loophole. Rep. Mooney said, “CBDCs would threaten the liberties of law-abiding Americans and are being used by authoritarian countries right now to crack down on dissent.”²

Republicans stated the Federal Reserve needs Congressional approval to issue a CBDC. The pilot program gained attention last year after the Fed partnered with major banks to test potential CBDCs. Now, Republicans want a law to prevent the Fed from issuing a CBDC under the guise of a ‘pilot program.’

The National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions (NAFCU) declared support for Rep. Mooney’s bill. NAFCU said the Federal Reserve should halt all studies into CBDCs until there are clear regulatory guidelines. Such guidelines should be written by Congress and stakeholders like banks and credit unions. NAFCU fears a CBDC could upend the payments industry. Critics say a CBDC makes the Federal Reserve both a regulator and a competitor for deposits. Some financial institutions fear a massive bank run as investors convert their deposits to CBDCs.

Governor Ron DeSantis announced legislation in March against CBDCs. The bill prohibits adopting the use of CBDC as money within Florida’s Uniform Commercial Code. DeSantis said, “The Biden administration’s efforts to inject a Centralized Bank Digital Currency is about surveillance and control.”³

Gold to the Rescue

A CBDC amplifies power of the Federal Reserve to an unprecedented level. In the name of stimulating the economy, the Fed could use CBDCs to stop savings and retirement planning. They’d do this with negative interest rates or issuing money that expires if it isn’t spent within a limited amount of time. A CBDC lets the Fed create or remove money from the system. There would be no need for their current ad hoc interest rate hikes to try and tame inflation. With a click, they could simply erase the oversupply of money from your savings.

In contrast, gold stands as a safeguard for personal and financial freedom. Physical gold offers tangible benefits. It is a secure, long-term store of value. Gold provides a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation.

Gold ownership remains confidential, protecting personal privacy. Moreover, gold offers independence from cyber threats and technological failures. Individuals can protect their financial destiny and personal freedom by diversifying with gold. Contact us at 800-462-0071 to learn how a Gold IRA can protect your retirement savings from the dangers of the digital dollar.

Notes:

1. https://www.cato.org/survey-reports/poll-only-16-americans-support-government-issuing-central-bank-digital-currency#68-americans-would-oppose-cbdc-government-could-monitor-what-people-buy
2. https://mooney.house.gov/congressman-mooney-introduces-the-digital-dollar-pilot-prevention-act/
3. https://www.flgov.com/2023/03/20/governor-ron-desantis-announces-legislation-to-protect-floridians-from-a-federally-controlled-central-bank-digital-currency-and-surveillance-state/

• The Federal pause on student loan repayment is coming to an end
• The Supreme Court is deciding the legality of Biden’s loan forgiveness
• Economic hardship caused by renewed payments may be enough to tip the economy into recession

Student Debt Comes Due

America’s higher education bill is coming due, and the economy may pay the price. For more than three years, federal student loan borrowers haven’t had to make monthly payments. Those payments hover between $200 and $300. All told, borrowers are set to resume paying about $10 billion a month. As we speak, the Supreme Court is weighing the merits of Biden’s loan forgiveness. While politicians and borrowers await the Supreme Court’s ruling, analysts fear the economy will suffer, along with retirement funds, no matter what the Court decides.¹

²

Student Debt Paused

In March 2020, President Trump implemented a student-loan payment pause to give relief during the pandemic. Biden has continued to extend the pause. He most recently extended it 60 days after June 30. In other words, 60 days after the Supreme Court issues a final decision on the legality of Biden’s plan to cancel up to $20,000 in student debt. This most recent extension will most likely be the last. The end of the pause was written into the debt ceiling deal with Speaker of the House McCarthy.

Some economists saw the pause as a boon to the economy. The Education Department estimated the pause put $5 billion back in borrowers’ pockets. Money that would have gone to debt payments went into consumer spending instead. Marshall Steinbaum is an economics professor at University of Utah. He said, “it’s pretty clear the payment pause has been very stimulative to the macroeconomy.” Conversely, he followed up by saying the government is going to be put in the position of trying to collect debt that can’t be repaid. And that squeezing borrowers will be bad for the economy. Resulting in what Steinbaum called, “a pretty severe fiscal contraction.”³

Supreme Court Decides

Eight million borrowers stand to receive loan forgiveness. The Supreme Court will issue a decision about the legality of the student debt relief this month. Lawmakers aren’t waiting for that decision. They’ve already passed a bill to overturn Biden’s debt relief and end the payment pause.

⁴

Tipping the Scales into Recession

The economy, while fragile, is recovering from the pandemic. Some analysts think resuming student loan payments may jeopardize that recovery.

Mark Zandi is the Chief Economist at Moody’s Analytics. He said, “In a typical economy, the impact of restarting payments wouldn’t tip the US into recession. But in the current environment with the economy as weak as it is, recession risks as high as they are, a couple of tenths of percent can matter.”⁵

The odds of entering a recession are being debated now. A resilient labor market and strong consumer spending, even after aggressive rate hikes, are giving some hopes of a ‘soft landing.’ Deutsche Bank holds no such hopes. They’ve declared that an economic downturn is 100% inevitable. They base this opinion on a few factors. The short-term benchmark fed funds rate stands at the highest level since 2006. But inflation’s still twice the Fed’s goal. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that more rate hikes will likely be necessary to further cool inflation. Deutsche Bank thinks a recession is needed to finally break ‘sticky’ inflation. Their chief economist stated, “Avoiding a hard landing would be historically unprecedented.” ⁶

Goldman Sachs sees the end of the pause as a break-even situation. If the Court rules in favor of forgiveness, Goldman Sachs estimates $400 billion in loan balances would be erased. If the Court rules against relief, Goldman predicts the decrease in disposable income would create a drag on public spending. Their calculations show a return to loan payments will equal the loss of consumer spending.⁷

Borrowers themselves are much less optimistic. A Credit Karma survey found that 43% of borrowers do not feel financially stable and 21% had no savings. A similar survey found that 53% of borrowers said their financial stability depends on loan forgiveness or the federal forbearance period. 26% were using money that would have gone to loan payments for bills and necessities.⁸

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York found missed debt payments are higher than before the pandemic. This could be a sign of more financial problems for borrowers once the federal forbearance ends.

Economic Impact of Repayment

While general spending may decrease across the board, retailers will be particularly hard hit. UBS and JPMorgan both warn of a coming “ice-age for retail” because it caters to millennials, the largest holders of student loan debt.

The resumption of student loan payments alone won’t crash the economy. But they may be the straw that breaks the camel’s back and pushes the US into a recession. A recession would bring increased unemployment and reduced corporate earnings. Stock prices, and in turn, retirement funds, could drop as a result. Government relief or not, that bill is going to be paid one way or another. Someone else’s education may result in a drop in your retirement savings. To preserve the value of your retirement funds before this happens, investigate the benefits of a Gold IRA. Contact an American Hartford Gold specialist at 800-462-0071 to learn how you can protect your savings.

Notes:

1. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/student-loan-repayments-slam-big-name-retailers-fall
2. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/student-loans-how-will-the-restart-in-payments-affect-the-economy-experts-are-split-182305006.html
3. https://www.businessinsider.com/what-will-happen-to-economy-when-student-loan-payments-resume-2023-5
4. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/student-loans-how-will-the-restart-in-payments-affect-the-economy-experts-are-split-182305006.html
5. https://www.businessinsider.com/what-will-happen-to-economy-when-student-loan-payments-resume-2023-5
6. https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2023/06/15/recession-inevitable-deutsche-bank/70327467007/
7. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/student-loans-how-will-the-restart-in-payments-affect-the-economy-experts-are-split-182305006.html
8. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/student-loans-how-will-the-restart-in-payments-affect-the-economy-experts-are-split-182305006.html

• The Federal Reserve opted not to raise interest rates at their most recent meeting
• The pause is most likely temporary, with the Fed suggesting future rate hikes later this year
• Pause or no pause, interest rates will continue to inflict pain on Americans

Fed Pauses Rate Hikes

After raising rates at its fastest pace in 40 years, the Federal Reserve announced they are hitting the pause button on hikes for now. This marks an end to 10 straight increases. Beyond failing banks and bear markets, the Fed’s inflation taming policy has impacted regular Americans. Rate hikes have driven borrowing costs above 5%. The cost of auto loans, credit cards, and mortgages have all risen higher – leaving consumers with less cash to spend. So, while this pause won’t add to the pain, it is unlikely to help.

¹

The pause may even be short lived. The Fed left a return to hikes on the table, saying additional rate hikes are probable later this year. The decision to skip a rate increase this meeting was unanimous among officials. The Fed will assess further information and its impact on monetary policy before making future moves. Economic indicators, including the job market and credit conditions, will play a crucial role in determining the size and timing of future rate hikes. Tightening lending standards by banks and potential limitations on accessing credit could dampen economic activity, hiring, and inflation.

Some analysts think renewed rate increases could be disastrous. High rates exposed vulnerabilities in the financial system. Resuming rate hikes could shake public confidence by causing more damage like failing banks. Or they could trigger a something that sets the economy into a tailspin. Laura Rosner-Warburton is a senior official at MacroPolicy Perspectives and a former staffer at the New York Fed. She said, “Keeping rates at these levels will pull more skeletons out of the closet.”²

A Pause is No Help

Greg McBride is the Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate.com. “A pause won’t bring borrowing rates lower, particularly for variable rate debt such as credit cards and home equity lines of credit that have increased in step with the Fed’s 10 previous interest rate hikes,” McBride said. Right now, the average APR on a new credit card offer is a towering 23.98%, according to LendingTree. And they are predicted to creep higher in the immediate future, even with the pause.

“Elevated inflation and a strong labor market mean the Fed is nowhere close to cutting interest rates, so borrowers will continue to be dealing with high interest rates for months to come, even if the Fed doesn’t hike rates further,” said McBride. ³

An Uncertain Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve may be taking a pause to figure just what exactly is happening with the economy. The Fed started their aggressive rate policy to fight inflation. They know rate hikes can take more than a year to have a full impact. According to some data, that policy is working. Inflation had spiked at 9.1% in June last year. It has fallen to 4% according to the May Consumer Price Index report. Meanwhile, the labor market is booming, home prices are holding up, and consumers are still spending.

⁴

But the data isn’t so clear upon closer examination. The most recent US employment report provided a confusing mix of information. Companies added a strong 339,000 jobs in May, but households reported higher unemployment.

Inflation, meanwhile, has steadily dropped, but key services sectors — where wages are one of the biggest expenses — are still seeing higher price increases than the Fed would like. The slowing of inflation might have as much to do with easing supply chains and depleted government spending as it does with higher rates.

Mortgage rates shot up, putting a significant dent in the market. New listings are down 23%, and pending sales are down 17%. But a housing shortage, combined with the fact that so many homeowners locked in low rates during the pandemic, has meant that prices haven’t dropped significantly. People looking to move have fewer options, and people who own aren’t eager to give up their cheap rates.⁵

Navigating the Future

Despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause interest rate hikes, struggling consumers should not expect immediate relief. High borrowing costs across various sectors, coupled with inflation concerns and uncertainties in the economy, will continue to pose financial challenges. Taking proactive steps to pay down debt and manage financial obligations can help individuals navigate these difficult times. So can safe haven assets that protect purchasing power during times of high interest rates. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can preserve the value of your retirement funds as Federal Reserve policy plays out. To learn more, contact us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:

1. https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-holds-rates-steady-but-expects-more-increases-b1be87f2?mod=article_inline
2. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/12/fed-rate-hikes-pause-00101349
3. https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/a-fed-pause-likely-wont-help-struggling-consumers
4. https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-holds-rates-steady-but-expects-more-increases-b1be87f2?mod=article_inline
5. https://www.politico.com/news/2023/06/12/fed-rate-hikes-pause-00101349

• $1.5 trillion of commercial real estate loans are coming due in two years
• Banks fear commercial mortgage holders will default due to high interest rates and low occupancy
• A crumbling commercial real estate can drag the economy into recession

Commercial Real Estate a ‘Ticking Timebomb’

A potential disaster is waiting to strike the US economy. The commercial real estate market is on the edge of cliff. It is about to be pushed over by rising interest rates and declining occupancy. And it just might take down the economy with it. With recent turmoil in the banking industry, experts foresee another mortgage crisis leading to a potential recession.

The US economy faces an economic time bomb with approximately $1.5 trillion in real estate mortgages set to mature within the next two years. This impending wave of maturities is adding to the stress of high interest rates and low occupancy. ¹

The Federal Reserve has raised key interest rates by 5 percentage points since March 2022. Interest rates have more than doubled for some types of commercial mortgages. High rates were blamed for the recent series of bank failures. Those crashes were tied into their overweight investment in commercial real estate.

Continued office vacancies are making matters worse. The significant increase in remote work since the pandemic has kept offices empty. This shift in work dynamics has reduced the demand for office spaces. Commercial landlords are now left in a vulnerable position.

In addition, many of the landlords are on the hook because they have interest-only loans. Unlike traditional home loans, commercial mortgages often require borrowers to only pay the interest during the loan term. The entire principal comes due at the end. Interest-only loans as a share of new commercial mortgage-backed securities issuance increased to 88% in 2021, up from 51% in 2013.

²

The risk seemed minimal at the time. Interest rates were low and property values kept rising. Owners could expect to simply pay off the loan with a new one when the bill came due. Now, many landlords are no longer able to get new loans big enough to pay them back. Fitch Ratings estimates that 35% of commercial mortgages won’t be able to refinance. While many malls and hotels face high default risks, the situation is particularly dire for office owners.

Banks Respond

Banks recognize the danger facing them. They can see the rising risk of default from office tower and mall owners. Decreased demand and lower rental prices are contributing to a decline in property valuations. Banks fear being left with less valuable collateral and insufficient security in the event of default. Such defaults would expose them to potential losses and destabilize their loan portfolios.

Banks are determined to reduce their exposure to the teetering commercial real estate market. They are cutting back on commercial property loans. Doing so could lead to a slowdown in new office construction and impede the market’s recovery.

Some banks are selling off property loans at a discount even when borrowers are up to date on repayments. Wells Fargo is cutting its losses by preparing to offload debts at discounted prices, even from borrowers who have remained current on their repayments. Of its $142 billion in commercial real estate loans, Wells Fargo chief executive said, “We will see losses, no question about it.”³

HSBC is in the process of pawning off hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of loans at a discount. They are also winding down direct lending to property developers. And PacWest unloaded $2.6 billion worth of construction lending contracts at a loss in May.⁴

As large banks cut their losses, the banking crisis for regional banks continues. Roughly 70% of bank-held commercial mortgages still sit on the balance sheets of both regional and small lenders. These banks may be more vulnerable to the effects of a commercial real estate crisis. Another round of bank failures may occur in the not-so-distant future.

The FDIC is monitoring the potential crisis. They said, “The banking industry continues to face significant downside risks from the effects of inflation, rising market interest rates, slower economic growth, and geopolitical uncertainty.”⁵

Effects of the Crisis

As the fear of delinquencies rise, commercial real estate stocks are down. An index of publicly traded commercial real estate investment trusts (REITs) has fallen 18.1 percent since this time last year. Fewer commercial buildings are being sold more than three years after the coronavirus surfaced in the US.

The prospect of widespread default and plummeting demand could stifle construction and development in major US cities. Fewer lenders are betting on a quick recovery. With the crumbling of commercial real estate’s crucial role in the economy, a chain of events may be in motion that could end with recession. The 2008 mortgage crisis resulting in stocks dropping by 50%. Retirement savings were devastated. With a potential repeat crisis, the time is now to protect your assets. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can safeguard the value of your portfolio from another market crash. Contact us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:

1. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12162843/Potential-time-bomb-economy-looms-1-5-trillion-real-estate-mortgages-come-due.html
2. https://www.wsj.com/articles/interest-only-loans-helped-commercial-property-boom-now-theyre-coming-due-c3754941
3. https://www.ft.com/content/3e905e3c-697c-4109-bd9a-605e75a0cfa4
4. https://www.ft.com/content/3e905e3c-697c-4109-bd9a-605e75a0cfa4
5. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12162843/Potential-time-bomb-economy-looms-1-5-trillion-real-estate-mortgages-come-due.html

• Despite a brief surge after lifting strict Covid restrictions, China’s economy is heading for recession
• Due to highly interconnected economies, a Chinese recession can negatively impact stock prices
• Physical safe haven assets like gold offer wealth protection against a global economic downturn

Slow Chinese Economic Recovery

China’s pandemic recovery is not going according to plan and it may end up hurting your retirement funds. Despite a surge after lifting Covid restrictions, the Chinese economy is slowing down. Elon Musk and JP Morgan Chair Jamie Dimon visited China to address concerns about the encroaching recession there. In today’s fragile global financial system, the fate of the second largest economy can have a severe impact on the rest of the world.

China’s stock market experienced a boom earlier this year. Investors bet on the economy bouncing back after China ended their strict zero-Covid policy. They are now losing that bet. The most recent official data points to an economy in decline. Retail sales, factory production and fixed-asset investments all came in weaker than expected. All the main Chinese stock indexes tumbled. The MSCI China index fell into a bear market. It lost more than a fifth of its value. And even shares of China’s state-owned enterprise have fallen 10%.

¹

Reasons for the slump tie into a lack of investor confidence due to politics. China and US relations soured after the shooting down of a Chinese surveillance balloon. “China’s focus on national security will make the government’s policies less growth-friendly,” Citi analysts wrote in a report on May 30.²

Beijing carried out raids on foreign groups such as Bain & Company, Capvision and due diligence group Mintz. They increased regulation of domestic private businesses as well. Chinese officials appear to be ending their clampdown on the tech sector. Yet, investors still worry that the government could move against other companies.

“They came out with regulation after regulation without warning the market…when you’re a commercial investor, you lose confidence when you see those kinds of things happening,” said a portfolio manager for Janus Henderson Investments.³

JPMorgan has a large investment in China. Chair Jamie Dimon has warned about the effects of the Chinese government’s policies. “If you have more uncertainty, somewhat caused by the Chinese government . . . it’s not just going to change foreign direct investment. It’s going to change the people here, their own confidence….And confidence is very important for growth.”⁴

The Chinese government says they are prepared to help bolster the economy. Premier Li Qiang said this month more targeted measures were needed to boost demand. And China’s central bank said on May 15 it would provide “strong and stable” support for the real economy.

Why China’s Recession is Our Problem

The slowing of the Chinese economy can impact the United States stock market. Reasons for this include:

Trade Relations: China is one of the largest trading partners of the United States. According to the US Census Bureau, China was the third-largest export market for US goods in 2020, accounting for $103.9 billion in exports. A slowdown in the Chinese economy can impact sectors which rely heavily on exports to China. Such sectors include manufacturing, technology, and agriculture. This can result in lower revenues and earnings, and in turn, lower stock prices.⁵

China is also the top supplier of goods to the United States. It accounts for 18 percent of total goods imports ($452 billion). A decrease in manufacturing there can result in price increases here.⁶

Global Supply Chains: Many US companies have complex supply chains that rely on China. If the Chinese economy slows down, it can disrupt these supply chains. This can cause production delays or increased costs for US companies. Such disruptions can affect their profitability and investor confidence. Their stocks could fall as a result. Chinese supply chain snarls during the pandemic are reported to have cost American firms billions.

Investor Sentiment and Confidence: The global financial system is highly interconnected. Events in one country can quickly transmit shocks to other economies. As Dimon pointed out, the stock market is influenced by investor sentiment and confidence. A slowdown in the Chinese economy can be perceived as a sign of broader global economic weakness. This may trigger a sell-off in the US stock market as investors become more risk-averse.

Commodity Prices: China is a major consumer of commodities such as oil, metals, and agricultural products. A slowdown in Chinese economic activity can result in reduced demand for these commodities. Reduced demand can lead to lower global commodity prices. This can impact the profitability of US commodity companies, such as energy or mining. Lower profits often translate into lower stock value. Commodity prices dropped significantly when the 2008 global financial crisis caused a slowdown in the Chinese economy. Oil dropped 80%, copper fell 67%, and corn declined 40%. Interestingly enough, during this time, gold surged from $650 to a peak of around $1,000 per ounce.^7,8,9,10

Debt Holdings: A Chinese recession can make our current debt crisis worse. The significant holdings of US government debt by China creates a potential vulnerability that can affect the US stock market. The Chinese economy’s ability to continue purchasing US debt is crucial for maintaining stability in the US stock market. If China faces economic challenges, it may reduce its purchases of US government debt, leading to potential disruptions.

As of July 2021, China was the largest foreign holder of US Treasury securities. Their holdings totaled approximately $1.1 trillion. Fewer Chinese purchases of US government debt can mean less funds available for government spending and programs. This could lead to higher interest rates or reduced government investment.

The potential reduction in Chinese purchases of US debt can also amplify China’s attack on the dollar. Decreased demand for US Treasuries can weaken the dollar’s strength relative to other currencies. This could increase volatility in international trade and the stock market.

Some may cheer the demise of an economic rival like China. But the financial reality is that our economies are intricately linked. A Chinese recession or collapse would most likely lead to a drop in American stock prices. Which of course would depress the value of most retirement funds. One way to protect the value of your funds is to move out of paper assets and into safe haven assets like physical gold. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can shield your wealth from damage caused by a global economic downturn. Contact us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://www.ft.com/content/5f389a80-96f1-4979-8eeb-fe484dc10cad
2. https://www.wsj.com/articles/heres-why-stock-market-investors-turned-bearish-on-china-e1cc345e
3. https://www.wsj.com/articles/heres-why-stock-market-investors-turned-bearish-on-china-e1cc345e
4. https://www.ft.com/content/5f389a80-96f1-4979-8eeb-fe484dc10cad
5. https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html
6. https://ustr.gov/countries-regions
7. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=rbrte&f=m
8. https://www.lme.com/en-GB/Metals/Non-ferrous/Copper#tabIndex=0
9. https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/agricultural/grain-and-oilseed/corn.html
10. https://www.americanhartfordgold.com/gold-price-charts/

• The deadline is rapidly approaching to raise the debt ceiling and avoid a government default
• Even if a deal to raise the debt limit is reached, there can still be severe negative consequences
• Any deal is just a short-term fix that kicks the real problem of astronomical debt down the road

Breaking the Debt Ceiling

The US economy is staggering on the edge of a financial cliff. It is only a couple of weeks before ‘X-date’ – the day the government runs out of money. If they fail to reach an agreement on raising the US debt ceiling, the nation could default on its record $31.4 trillion debt.¹ The results of which would be ‘catastrophic’ according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.² However, even if a deal is reached, there will be aftershocks to the economy. Indeed, the crisis won’t really be solved. The underlying debt problem will remain lurking beneath the surface. We will have merely kicked the can down the road, only postponing the inevitable serious consequences.

³

The Consequences of Defaulting on Debt

If the government defaults, the effects would be devastating to the US and the global economy. Experts largely predict the US credit rating would drop and gross domestic product (GDP) would fall. Social Security and other benefit payments could be delayed, hurting tens of millions of Americans.

Unemployment rates would spike as millions of people potentially lose their jobs. Economists at Moody’s Analytics project that if the government exceeds the debt limit for even a few days, the unemployment rate would jump up to 5%. However, if the breach were to drag on for several weeks, the effects would be much harsher. The unemployment rate could spike to 8% and nearly 8 million people could lose their jobs.⁴

Interest rates have already been steadily rising due to 10 consecutive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. An unexpected shock like a debt default would spike interest rates further and likely spark a recession. The cost of borrowing money could become prohibitive.

“If policymakers actually do fail to increase or suspend the limit before the Treasury runs out of cash and defaults on its obligations, interest rates will spike and stock prices will crater, with enormous costs to taxpayers and the economy,” Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, said.⁵

The housing market would also be severely affected. An already tattered housing market would be sent into a “deep freeze,” according to Jeff Tucker, a Zillow senior economist. Tucker projected that home sales would plummet, mortgage rates would climb to as high as 8.4%, and buyers’ mortgage bills would soar by over 20%.⁶

Stock prices would also likely plummet and wreak havoc on retirement savings. Moody’s predicted that, under a prolonged default scenario, stock prices would plummet by one-fifth, wiping out about $10 trillion in household wealth.⁷

If A Deal is A Reached

⁸

A debt default is not likely to happen. Even under the current gridlocked circumstances, Moody’s Analytics puts the chances of a default happening at 10%.⁹

If the US manages to avert default, the consequences would still be significant. To pay its bills, the government would need to sell Treasury bills worth over $1 trillion. When the government sells a significant number of Treasury bills, it increases the Treasury General Account. This is essentially the government’s checking account. It will go from $95 billion to $500 billion in a month. The account will hit $600 billion 3 months.¹⁰

However, when there is more money in this account, there is less money available for other purposes. It becomes harder for banks to lend to individuals and businesses. Consequently, borrowing money would become more expensive, leading to higher interest rates. The housing market would suffer, with tumbling sales and soaring mortgage rates. Stock prices would also likely crash, causing a significant loss of wealth.

Money markets, often considered a safer investment, could also become casualty in a debt ceiling deal. A new imbalance between the amount of Treasuries issued and the available cash could cause short-term rates to rise. This means the funding for money markets could be disrupted. Investors could be better served moving to safe assets such as gold and silver.

A Temporary Solution

Raising the debt ceiling without addressing the underlying issues is like applying a band-aid to a deep wound.

Renowned investor Ray Dalio said, “Increasing the debt limit the way Congress and presidents have repeatedly done, and most likely will do this time around, will mean there will be no meaningful limit on the debt. This will eventually lead to a disastrous financial collapse.”¹¹

The underlying problem lies in unsustainable spending and increasing debt. Central banks are left with the unenviable choice of raising interest rates or printing money to buy debt. Both of which have negative ramifications. Our situation is speeding to an unescapable doom loop that ends in total economic ruin.

The government may very well avoid defaulting on the national debt. What they cannot avoid is damaging the economy with their reckless spending. There will severe consequences as the debt crisis is resolved. Yet, these are only temporary fixes. The real dangers of our astronomical debt are being willfully ignored. Ultimately, that debt must be reckoned with. And that reckoning could make the Great Depression look like winning the lottery. If you want to protect your wealth from an impending debt crisis, then you should investigate how a Gold IRA can safeguard your future. Call us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-18/a-1-trillion-t-bill-deluge-is-painful-risk-of-a-debt-limit-deal#xj4y7vzkg
2. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-18/yellen-tells-bank-ceos-debt-limit-failure-would-be-catastrophic#xj4y7vzkg
3. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-18/a-1-trillion-t-bill-deluge-is-painful-risk-of-a-debt-limit-deal#xj4y7vzkg?leadSource=uverify%20wall
4. https://money.com/debt-default-money-impact/
5. https://money.com/debt-default-money-impact/
6. https://money.com/debt-default-money-impact/
7. https://money.com/debt-default-money-impact/
8. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-18/a-1-trillion-t-bill-deluge-is-painful-risk-of-a-debt-limit-deal#xj4y7vzkg?leadSource=uverify%20wall
9. https://money.com/debt-default-money-impact/
10. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-05-18/a-1-trillion-t-bill-deluge-is-painful-risk-of-a-debt-limit-deal#xj4y7vzkg
11. https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-05-23/-Disastrous-financial-collapse-Ray-Dalio-on-problem-bigger-than-raising-debt-ceiling.html

• Studies show Americans are unprepared for retirement due to record inflation and household debt
• The gap in retirement savings could become trillion-dollar liability for the government
• Retirement planners should seek safe haven assets to make sure their funds are there when they need them

Retirement at Risk

The future of retirement for many Americans is becoming increasingly uncertain. Record debt and persistent inflation are hurting Americans’ retirement prospects. These endangered retirements hold potential consequences for the entire economy. People should be taking measures now to safeguard their future.

A survey by the Certified Financial Planner Board identified American’s main financial concerns. Sixty percent of Americans worry about purchasing necessities such as food and clothing. A further 55% worry about paying rent or a mortgage. And 69% worry about preparing for retirement.

The biggest challenge to preparing for retirement was debt. Those under 45 and those over were just as likely to withdraw money from a retirement account. “These past several years have not been easy for Americans,” CFP Board CEO Kevin R. Keller said in a statement. “From the pandemic to the latest banking news, uncertainty has been prevalent.”¹

Household debt has reached an unprecedented level of $17 trillion. It increased $2.9 trillion since pre-pandemic 2019. Mortgages typically drive household debt. But new mortgages dropped due to high interest rates. Mortgage debt saw a decline of 62% compared to the previous year. Yet, credit card debt reached a record-breaking $986 billion. A 17% jump from last year, this is the first time in two decades it hasn’t gone down after the holidays. This surge in debt shows the financial strain experienced by many Americans. More and more, people are relying on credit cards to cope with rising costs.²

³

Cost to the Economy

The number of financially vulnerable individuals aged 65 and above is expected to increase. From 2020 to 2040, the number is predicted to rise 43%. Alarmingly, approximately 56 million private sector workers lack access to employer-sponsored retirement plans. Many households are left with limited options for building enough retirement funds. Numerous Americans will be facing a lower quality of life during their retirement years.⁴

The Pew Research Center says the shortage of retirement savings could cost the government $1.3 trillion by 2040. This savings gap could place an immense strain on state and federal budgets. There will be a greater proportion of elderly individuals compared to the working-age population. The expense of Medicare and other programs is expected to be borne by a smaller portion of the workforce. The extra public funding could result in higher taxes. Analysts estimate the projected shortfall would cost $13,600 per household.⁵

Several states are recognizing the urgent need to address the retirement crisis. They have launched automated savings programs. They allow individuals to set up state-sponsored Individual Retirement Accounts (IRAs). These initiatives are proving successful. Enrollees are saving between $105 and $190 per month. Some analysts believe such initiatives could help reduce the burden on public resources.⁶

Challenging Economic Landscape

The National Retirement Risk Index highlights the economic challenges faced by working-age households. It shows that about half of the nation’s households may struggle to maintain their standard of living in retirement. One third of households are taking a major hit from the increase in Social Security’s full retirement age. The economy had a period of improvement after the Great Recession. But the uncertainty caused by the pandemic and inflationary pressures undid those gains for many people.

Inflation’s Impact on Retirement Funds

A survey by the Senior Citizens League found inflation is wiping out retirement funds. The percentage of retirees reporting a drain on their savings rose from 20% in the third quarter of 2022 to 26% in the first quarter of 2023. Moreover, a record-high 45% carried credit card debt for more than 90 days.⁷

“Retirees exhaust retirement savings as they age, but it looks like inflation has sped up the process,” Mary Johnson, a Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at the Senior Citizens League said.⁸

Record household debt, insufficient retirement savings, and persistent inflation are making retirement planning essential. The strain on retirement funds shows the need for individuals to seek safe-haven assets that can protect their wealth. A Gold IRA can provide a hedge against inflation and safeguard retirement funds in an uncertain economic climate. By taking acting now, individuals can work towards ensuring a more stable and prosperous retirement future. Call American Hartford Gold today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/americans-prioritize-retirement-savings
2. https://qz.com/americans-are-still-using-credit-cards-to-buy-necessiti-1850440401
3. https://qz.com/americans-are-still-using-credit-cards-to-buy-necessiti-1850440401
4. https://401kspecialistmag.com/retirement-savings-gap-could-create-1-3-trillion-burden-by-2040/
5. https://401kspecialistmag.com/retirement-savings-gap-could-create-1-3-trillion-burden-by-2040/
6. https://401kspecialistmag.com/retirement-savings-gap-could-create-1-3-trillion-burden-by-2040/
7. https://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/americans-prioritize-retirement-savings
8. https://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/americans-prioritize-retirement-savings

• The latest Consumer Price Index shows inflation is slowing down but far from over
• Coupled with the banking crisis, the Federal Reserve may pause any future interest rate hikes
• Gold is increasing in price, with analysts predicting potential new highs

New Data Shows Persistent Inflation

The latest Consumer Price Index report shows that while inflation may be decelerating, it is bound to linger in our economic landscape well into the foreseeable future. The index rose 4.9% in April from a year earlier. This marks the 10th straight month of easing inflation. Yet, inflation remains historically high despite the slight easing, with a recent peak of 9.1% in June 2022. US stocks opened higher, the dollar fell, and US Treasury prices rose in response to the data. But consumers are still suffering in essential areas, while Federal Reserve policy and the price of gold react to the new information.¹

Rising prices of shelter, gasoline, and used cars contributed to the inflation numbers. Shelter costs, contributing to 40% of core inflation, rose by 0.4% in April and 8.1% over the past year. Gasoline prices spiked after a decrease in March. The rise was driven by OPEC+ oil producers’ announcement of further oil output cuts. Used car and truck prices increased by 4.4% in April, reversing previous declines. The cost of groceries fell slightly, but food prices are still higher compared to a year ago.²

Core prices, excluding food and energy, rose for the fifth consecutive month. Economists consider core prices as a better predictor of future inflation. In the 12 months through April, the core CPI increased by 5.5%, showing strong underlying inflation.³

“Inflation has moved beyond sticky at this point and after three months of core CPI hanging above 5%, it’s become tenacious,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union. “Given the biggest contributor to high CPI once again was shelter, and home sales prices have hit their own plateau, we may not see significant drops in CPI until this fall.”⁴

⁵

Federal Reserve

Analysts believe the new CPI data is giving the Federal Reserve room to alter their policy. The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates aggressively to combat inflation. The Fed’s rate increases have had significant effects on mortgage rates, auto loans, credit card borrowing, and business loans. Economists fear the rate hikes are driving the country into recession and fueling a recent wave a bank failures.

Even with the downward trend, inflation is still well above the Fed’s 2% target. “Inflation pressures continue to run high, and the process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go,” Fed Chair Powell said. The CPI report suggests a potential need for rates to remain high for longer than anticipated, according to economists.⁶

The Federal Reserve recently raised interest rates to the highest level in 16 years. This is its fastest monetary policy tightening campaign since the 1980s. The Fed has hiked its policy rate by 500 basis points since March 2022. But the language in their statement suggested a possible pause in further increases. The Fed will weigh various factors to determine the need for future rate hikes.⁷

Powell indicated that the Fed has yet to decide whether to suspend rate hikes but acknowledged the possibility. He said Fed will take a data-dependent approach moving forward. In a statement after its latest policy meeting, the Fed removed a sentence from its previous statement that had said “some additional” rate hikes might be needed. It replaced it with language that said it will now weigh a range of factors in “determining the extent” to which future hikes might be needed.⁸

Gold

Gold prices rallied after the CPI report came in close to market expectations. Gold’s uptrend depends on a weaker U.S. dollar and lower interest rates. Some analysts believe gold could reach record highs due to a pause on interest rate hikes, debt ceiling concerns, and China’s continuing buying spree. China is expanding its gold reserves and potentially reducing its holdings of US Treasuries in favor of gold.

Edward Morse is the global head of commodities strategy at Citi Research. He predicts gold prices will eventually reach $2,400 an ounce. Citigroup is bullish on gold but emphasizes the need for patience and acknowledges the choppy road ahead. He said, “The gold prices are really an anticipation of what’s going to happen to interest rates and what’s going to happen to the US dollar. Clearly, there is a lot of money to be made.”⁹

The latest Consumer Price Index information holds both promise and pitfalls. Consumers should brace for elevated inflation to become a fact of life. However, there is now more cause for the Federal Reserve to pivot from its course of aggressive rate hikes. Even more so in the face of a spreading bank crisis and a looming recession. With gold positioned to rise, now is an opportune time to safeguard your portfolio with precious metals. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can not only secure your wealth from inflation but can also potentially grow it. Contact us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:

1. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/cpi-inflation-april-2023
2. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/cpi-inflation-april-2023
3. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-increase-solidly-april-2023-05-10/
4. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/cpi-inflation-april-2023
5. https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/cpi-inflation-april-2023
6. https://nypost.com/2023/05/10/consumer-price-index-rose-5-5-in-april-as-fed-weighs-more-rate-hikes/
7. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-consumer-prices-increase-solidly-april-2023-05-10/
8. https://nypost.com/2023/05/10/consumer-price-index-rose-5-5-in-april-as-fed-weighs-more-rate-hikes/
9. https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-05-09/Gold-s-recent-push-near-all-time-highs-was-just-a-test-run-as-Citigroup-s-Morse-sees-prices-hitting-2-400.html

• The US government is hitting its debt ceiling and will soon be unable to pay its bills
• Experts say there will be an economic catastrophe if the debt ceiling isn’t raised
• Gold prices are surging as investors seek safe havens

US Hits it Debt Limit

The United States government is quickly approaching its debt limit. The US could default on its debt as early as June 1, meaning the country would run out of money to pay its bills. Americans could face an economic catastrophe if the debt ceiling isn’t raised. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned there would be dire consequences, including job losses, big cuts to retirement savings, and a severe economic downturn.

What is the Debt Limit?

The debt limit is the maximum amount of debt that the federal government is allowed to borrow to keep paying for programs already mandated by Congress. The US hit the debt limit of $31.4 trillion in January. Since then, the Treasury Department has been using “extraordinary measures” to keep the government running.

What Happens if the US Defaults on its Debt?

If the debt ceiling is not raised, it could lead to an economic disaster. The Joint Economic Committee found that a default could cost Americans $20,000 in retirement savings.¹ Moody’s Analytics estimates that a default could lead to 2.6 million job losses and cause the stock market to plunge by one-third, erasing $15 trillion in household wealth. Social security beneficiaries might not receive their monthly checks.²

Interest rates would rise even higher. Kathleen Day is a business lecturer at Johns Hopkins University. “The cost to borrow for homes, cars and credit cards would explode,” she said in an email. “In short, default would cause mayhem.” Consumers are already struggling with higher borrowing costs due to the Fed’s record pace of interest hikes. A stalled housing market would get even worse.³

What is the Current Situation?

The House passed Speaker McCarthy’s bill to raise the debt ceiling by $1.5 trillion or through March 31, 2024, whichever comes first. The bill included $4.5 trillion in spending cuts, including banning student loan forgiveness, and adding work requirements to welfare programs. However, the bill is unlikely to pass the Democrat-controlled Senate and White House.⁴

Has This Happened Before?

In 2011, Congress narrowly resolved the debt ceiling. Despite a last-minute deal, the stock market went down 14% over four weeks. Because of the crisis, debt-rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded the US debt for the first time.⁵

What is the Impact on Gold?

During the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, gold hit $1,900 an ounce for the first time. It then reached a record high at the time of $1,910 an ounce. Today, gold is aiming to surpass $2,020 as its safe haven appeal grows alongside debt ceiling worries. An extension in the US debt ceiling could result in a downgrade of the US long-term outlook. This would have a negative impact on the US Dollar, Treasury yields, and the S&P 500, all of which can drive the price of gold higher.⁶

The government is playing a dangerous game of brinkmanship with the economy. If the debt ceiling isn’t resolved, retirement funds may drop off a cliff. People looking to protect the value of their funds should investigate gold. Call us at 800-462-0071 to learn how a Gold IRA can safeguard the value of your portfolio.

Notes:
1. https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happens-if-congress-doesnt-raise-debt-ceiling-jobs-retirement-2023-5
2. https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happens-if-congress-doesnt-raise-debt-ceiling-jobs-retirement-2023-5
3. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/debt-limit-ceiling-impact-on-your-finances-social-security-medicare-401k/
4. https://www.businessinsider.com/what-happens-if-congress-doesnt-raise-debt-ceiling-jobs-retirement-2023-5
5. https://www.cbsnews.com/news/debt-limit-ceiling-impact-on-your-finances-social-security-medicare-401k/
6. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/gold-price-forecast-xau-usd-eyes-above-2-020-as-white-house-needs-to-raise-us-debt-ceiling-sooner-202305030353

 

• First Republic Bank collapsed, following the failures of Silicon Valley and Signature Bank
• Analysts point to rapid interest rate hikes as the cause of the collapse
• To safeguard against a threatened financial system, investors are turning to gold

First Republic Bank Collapse

The banking crisis continued as First Republic Bank collapsed. JPMorgan Chase is set to take on “all of the deposits and substantially all of the assets of First Republic Bank” after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) confirmed that the troubled bank had collapsed on Monday.

First Republic was America’s 14th largest bank as of the end of 2022. Its demise follows the collapse of Signature Bank and Silicon Valley Bank – the 2nd and 3rd largest bank failures in American history. First Republic had lost more than $100 billion of deposits in the first quarter of the year. The losses sent investors and regulators into panic mode.¹

Prior to the collapse, eleven larger banks had previously infused $30 billion of deposits into First Republic to buy some of its assets at above-market rates. But there was no saving the bank.

First Republic’s appeal for a government bailout failed. Instead, the government worked to protect depositors. The FDIC said, “All depositors of First Republic Bank will become depositors of JPMorgan Chase Bank, National Association, and will have full access to all of their deposits.”²

Analysts are laying the blame for the collapse on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. The bank carried billions in unrealized losses, due in part to its book of mortgages that were issued when rates were significantly lower. Rapidly rising interest rates decimated the value of First Republic’s holdings. The collapse of SVB and Signature, for the same reason, sparked a run on First Republic and its ultimate demise.

Effects of the Failure

Experts don’t believe the banking crisis will divert Fed policy. Inflation is still much too high, as the most recent GDP report showed. Hence, the Fed is still likely to hike rates at their next meeting, further endangering hundreds of other at-risk banks.

The bigger issue is how far will the banking crisis spread and how it will ripple throughout the economy. Almost 200 more banks are on the brink of collapse, including financial giant Deutsche Bank.^3,4 Cascading effects could include banks tightening credit. This could make it harder for people to get mortgages or credit cards, and for businesses to get loans. And that could lead to an even worse outcome – a prolonged and severe recession. ⁵

As the banking crisis threatens to destabilize the global financial system, the price of gold is predicted to hit all-time highs.⁶ As a result, Americans are facing a severe recession and a drastic loss in their savings. People who want to preserve the value of their funds should look to safe haven assets that exist independent of the banking system. To learn how precious metals within a Gold IRA can safeguard your retirement, contact us today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/white-house-monitoring-situation-first-republic-could-step-if-needed-2023-04-27/
2. https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Business/jpmorgan-chase-assume-deposits-republic-bank/story?id=98979305
3. https://theweek.com/finance/1021940/nearly-200-banks-at-risk-of-svb-type-collapse-study-finds
4. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-next-fall-worried-133438711.html
5. https://www.sfchronicle.com/tech/article/first-republic-bank-collapse-recession-17845950.php
6. https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/22/gold-price-could-hit-high-amid-svb-credit-suisse-bank-problems.html

• In a rare admission, the Federal Reserve stated that a recession is likely in 2023
• A recession forecast is supported by several strong economic indicators
• Stocks will most likely fall further before they hit a bottom

Recession Predicted

Already stressed by banking turmoil, markets are dropping as the latest economic indicators point to a recession. In a rare admission, the federal government stated that we could be facing a downturn. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) makes key decisions about interest rates and the growth of the United States money supply. They expect a recession before the end of 2023 based on several factors.

The FOMC isn’t alone in their prediction. The New York Fed’s Recession Probabilities Model suggests the odds of a downturn are at their highest since 1982. The model’s April reading shows a 57.7% chance of a recession. Their forecast matches private sector predictions. JP Morgan Chase says the chance of a US recession is greater than 50% before the end 2023.¹

Recession Indicators

Debt Ceiling – The deadline to raise the debt ceiling is rapidly approaching. Weak tax receipts may cause the Treasury to be unable to pay all the US obligations earlier than expected. If the debt ceiling isn’t lifted, an unprecedented default would result in a government shutdown and risk triggering a deep recession.²

Leading Economic Index – The Conference Board is a research organization. It counts over 1,000 public and private corporations and other organizations as members. Their Leading Economic Index (LEI) broadly tracks business cycles using 10 inputs from across areas such as manufacturing, unemployment, and interest rate spreads. The LEI saws its sharpest reversal on record outside of a recession dating back to the 1950s. Wells Fargo economists said it presents a “clear message” that a downturn remains ahead.³

Bond Yield Inversion – An inversion is when short-term Treasuries pay more than long-term Treasuries. It typically occurs when investors lose confidence in the economy. An inversion has preceded every recession since 1955. Today’s yield curve is more steeply inverted than it has been at any other point since 1960. A recession typically occurs about one year after an inversion. The curve first inverted in March 2022, which means we are due for a recession soon.⁴

Shrinking M2 Money Supply – The M2 money supply is a measure for how much cash is circulating throughout the national economy. It tumbled from this time last year.

Steve Hanke is a Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University. He thinks “a U.S. recession is baked in the cake.” And said, “Due to the Fed’s monetary mismanagement, the M2 money supply is falling at its fastest rate since the 1930s. The quantity theory of money tells us that, with a 6–18-month lag after M2 drops, economic activity will slump.”⁵

Some government officials did push back on the idea that we are entering a recession. Treasury Secretary Yellen said the US economy will avert of downturn. However, her prediction track record isn’t exactly perfect. Last year, Yellen had said there would only be a “small risk” of inflation, and that it would be “manageable.” To which she recently commented, “Well, look, I think I was wrong then about the path that inflation would take.”⁶

What It Can Mean

Since 1948, bear markets have started before the onset of a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research has yet to officially declare a recession. Therefore, the S&P 500 could reach new lows in the near term. No bear market in the last 75 years has reached its bottom before the beginning of a recession.

Billionaire GMO cofounder Jeremy Grantham said, “This one is pretty damn big. It’s bigger than 2000, because it includes real estate and bonds, and that one did not. The economy had a gentle recession. It had no problem with real estate. It had no problem with markdown of debt. And yet, the Nasdaq went down 82%, Amazon went down 92%, and the S&P went down 50%. Be advised, this is not a gentle setback like 2000.”⁷

Powerful signs are pointing towards a severe recession. People who are interested in protecting the value of their portfolios should investigate the benefits of precious metals. A Gold IRA from American Hartford Gold can safeguard your wealth through an extended economic downturn. Call us today at 800-462-0071 to learn more.

Notes:
1. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-economy-downturn-markets-conference-fed-inflation-stocks-business-cycle-2023-4
2. https://www.brookings.edu/2023/01/25/how-worried-should-we-be-if-the-debt-ceiling-isnt-lifted/
3. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-economy-downturn-markets-conference-fed-inflation-stocks-business-cycle-2023-4
4. https://www.fool.com/investing/2023/04/22/recession-indicator-been-100-accurate-since-1955/
5. https://www.theepochtimes.com/recession-risk-grows-after-money-supply-shrinks-at-fastest-pace-since-great-depression_5187430.html?welcomeuser=1
6. https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/treasury-secretary-janet-yellen-admits-was-wrong-inflation-rcna31416
7. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jeremy-grantham-stock-market-crash-real-estate-everything-bubble-recession-2023-3

 

• The banking crisis spurred gold demand in the first quarter of 2023 onto one of its highest levels on record
• Prices were bolstered by Russia acquiring sanction proof assets
• A gold buying opportunity presented itself as fears of continued rate hikes caused a price dip

Investors Flock to Gold

Gold saw one of its best quarters this year. Global economic instability sent investors flocking to the precious metal. State gold buying also bolstered demand. But fears of continued rate hikes caused a recent dip in gold prices. This dip presents investors with a tremendous gold buying opportunity.

Investors ran to gold to secure their wealth after the biggest banking meltdown since the 2008 Great Financial Crisis. As evidence, the US Mint saw historical demand for its gold bullion.

The Mint sold 215,000 ounces of gold in various denominations of its America Eagle gold coins. Those are the best March sales since 2018. In addition, the Mint had its best first quarter performance since 1999. They sold 435,500 ounces in the first three months of this year. March gold sales are up 38% from last year. Quarterly sales are also up.¹

The US isn’t alone in record gold sales. The Perth Mint sold the most gold coins since November. And their sales were up more than 54% from February. The managing director of Metals Focus said, “Coin and bar demand since the pandemic have been eye-watering high. Global demand for gold and silver are expected to remain healthy through 2023.”²

The demand for gold extends beyond individual and institutional investors. As China continues its gold buying spree, Russia is fervently building its own gold reserves. They are strategically investing in assets that can’t be sanctioned. Russia’s Central Bank Governor said, “We are building reserves based on what assets cannot be used for sanction pressure and how our foreign trade is changing.” Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, around $300 billion was frozen due to sanctions. That amount is about half of the country’s international reserves. The G7 has pledged to maintain sanctions for as long as the Ukraine war continues. Analysts expect Russia’s gold purchasing to continue for as long as sanctions remain.³

Price Dip Presents Buying Opportunity

After surging to near all-time highs, gold prices dropped below the key $2,000 level. The price dropped out of concern that the Fed won’t cut interest rates in the face of persistent inflation. The St. Louis Fed Chief said the Federal Reserve should continue raising rates. A stronger dollar reduces overseas demand for the greenback-priced gold. And higher rates blunt non-yielding bullion’s appeal.

Recent earnings reports and a stock market rally also put downward pressure on the price of gold. The chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures said, “Anytime you get earnings, you get a lot of people chasing individual stocks and that could also cause them to not invest so much in metal.”⁴

However, the head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank said gold’s rally has only been delayed. There is a growing consensus that the Fed will be forced to relent on interest rate hikes. The banking crisis and a looming severe recession will compel the Fed to alter its policy.

The temporary dip in gold prices presents a buying opportunity for investors. According to technical analysis from the Daily Forex, gold prices are on target to hit record highs this year. People looking to safeguard the value of their portfolios from the current economic turmoil should learn if gold is right for them. You can speak to an American Hartford Gold precious metals specialist to see how a Gold IRA can benefit you. Call them today at 800-462-0071.

Notes:
1. https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-04-18/Investors-flock-to-gold-silver-bullion-to-protect-wealth-in-Q1.html
2. https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-04-18/Investors-flock-to-gold-silver-bullion-to-protect-wealth-in-Q1.html
3. https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-04-18/Russia-is-building-its-reserves-with-assets-that-the-West-can-t-sanction-says-central-bank-chief.html
4. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-drifts-lower-firmer-dollar-fed-rate-outlook-2023-04-19/